Finding influential spreaders from human activity beyond network location

Most centralities proposed for identifying influential spreaders on social networks to either spread a message or to stop an epidemic require the full topological information of the network on which spreading occurs. In practice, however, collecting all connections between agents in social networks can be hardly achieved. As a result, such metrics could be difficult to apply to real social networks. Consequently, a new approach for identifying influential people without the explicit network information is demanded in order to provide an efficient immunization or spreading strategy, in a practical sense. In this study, we seek a possible way for finding influential spreaders by using the social mechanisms of how social connections are formed in real networks. We find that a reliable immunization scheme can be achieved by asking people how they interact with each other. From these surveys we find that the probabilistic tendency to connect to a hub has the strongest predictive power for influential spreaders among tested social mechanisms. Our observation also suggests that people who connect different communities is more likely to be an influential spreader when a network has a strong modular structure. Our finding implies that not only the effect of network location but also the behavior of individuals is important to design optimal immunization or spreading schemes

Incentive-compatible route coordination of crowdsourced resources

Technical ReportWith the recent trend in crowdsourcing, i.e., using the power of crowds to assist in satisfying demand, the pool of resources suitable for GeoPresen-ce-capable systems has expanded to include already roaming devices, such as mobile phones, and moving vehicles. We envision an environment, in which the motion of these crowdsourced mobile resources is coordinated, according to their preexisting schedules to satisfy geo-temporal demand on a mobility field. In this paper, we propose an incentive compatible route coordination mechanism for crowdsourced resources, in which participating mobile agents satisfy geo-temporal requests in return for monetary rewards. We define the Flexible Route Coordination (FRC) problem, in which an agent’s flexibility is exploited to maximize the coverage of a mobility field, with an objective to maximize the revenue collected from satisfied paying requests. Given that the FRC problem is NP-hard, we define an optimal algorithm to plan the route of a single agent on a graph with evolving labels, then we use that algorithm to define a 1-approximation algorithm to solve the 2 problem in its general model, with multiple agents. Moreover, we define an incentive compatible, rational, and cash-positive payment mechanism, which guarantees that an agent’s truthfulness about its flexibility is an ex-post Nash equilibrium strategy. Finally, we analyze the proposed mechanisms theoretically, and evaluate their performance experimentally using real mobility traces from urban environments

What’s in it for me? Incentive-compatible route coordination of crowdsourced resources

With the recent trend in crowdsourcing, i.e., using the power of crowds to assist in satisfying demand, the pool of resources suitable for GeoPresence-capable systems has expanded to include already roaming devices, such as mobile phones, and moving vehicles. We envision an environment, in which the motion of these crowdsourced mobile resources is coordinated, according to their preexisting schedules to satisfy geo-temporal demand on a mobility field. In this paper, we propose an incentive compatible route coordination mechanism for crowdsourced resources, in which participating mobile agents satisfy geo-temporal requests in return for monetary rewards. We define the Flexible Route Coordination (FRC) problem, in which an agent’s flexibility is exploited to maximize the coverage of a mobility field, with an objective to maximize the revenue collected from satisfied paying requests. Given that the FRC problem is NP-hard, we define an optimal algorithm to plan the route of a single agent on a graph with evolving labels, then we use that algorithm to define a 1/2-approximation algorithm to solve the problem in its general model, with multiple agents. Moreover, we define an incentive compatible, rational, and cash-positive payment mechanism, which guarantees that an agent’s truthfulness about its flexibility is an ex-post Nash equilibrium strategy. Finally, we analyze the proposed mechanisms theoretically, and evaluate their performance experimentally using real mobility traces from urban environments.Supported in part by NSF Grants, #1430145, #1414119, #1347522, #1239021, and #1012798

Artificial Neural Networks in Finance Modelling

The study of Artificial Neural Networks derives from first trials to translate in mathematical models the principles of biological “processing”. An Artificial Neural Network deals with generating, in the fastest times, an implicit and predictive model of the evolution of a system. In particular, it derives from experience its ability to be able to recognize some behaviours or situations and to “suggest” how to take them into account. This work illustrates an approach to the use of Artificial Neural Networks for Financial Modelling; we aim to explore the structural differences (and implications) between one- and multi- agent and population models. In one-population models, ANNs are involved as forecasting devices with wealth-maximizing agents (in which agents make decisions so as to achieve an utility maximization following non- linear models to do forecasting), while in multi-population models agents do not follow predetermined rules, but tend to create their own behavioural rules as market data are collected. In particular, it is important to analyze diversities between one-agent and one-population models; in fact, in building one-population model it is possible to illustrate the market equilibrium endogenously, which is not possible in one-agent model where all the environmental characteristics are taken as given and beyond the control of the single agent. A particular application we aim to study is the one regarding “customer profiling”, in which (based on personal and direct relationships) the “buying” behaviour of each customer can be defined, making use of behavioural inference models such as the ones offered by Artificial Neural Networks much better than traditional statistical methodologies.Artificial Neural Network, Financial Modelling, Customer Profiling

The Wiring Economy Principle: Connectivity Determines Anatomy in the Human Brain

Minimization of the wiring cost of white matter fibers in the human brain appears to be an organizational principle. We investigate this aspect in the human brain using whole brain connectivity networks extracted from high resolution diffusion MRI data of 14 normal volunteers. We specifically address the question of whether brain anatomy determines its connectivity or vice versa. Unlike previous studies we use weighted networks, where connections between cortical nodes are real-valued rather than binary off-on connections. In one set of analyses we found that the connectivity structure of the brain has near optimal wiring cost compared to random networks with the same number of edges, degree distribution and edge weight distribution. A specifically designed minimization routine could not find cheaper wiring without significantly degrading network performance. In another set of analyses we kept the observed brain network topology and connectivity but allowed nodes to freely move on a 3D manifold topologically identical to the brain. An efficient minimization routine was written to find the lowest wiring cost configuration. We found that beginning from any random configuration, the nodes invariably arrange themselves in a configuration with a striking resemblance to the brain. This confirms the widely held but poorly tested claim that wiring economy is a driving principle of the brain. Intriguingly, our results also suggest that the brain mainly optimizes for the most desirable network connectivity, and the observed brain anatomy is merely a result of this optimization