Evolutionary-Computation Based Risk Assessment of Aircraft Landing Sequencing Algorithms

Abstract. Usually, Evolutionary Computation (EC) is used for optimisation and machine learning tasks. Recently, a novel use of EC has been proposedMultiobjective Evolutionary Based Risk Assessment (MEBRA). MEBRA characterises the problem space associated with good and inferior performance of computational algorithms. Problem instances are represented ("scenario Representation") and evolved ("scenario Generation") in order to evaluate algorithms ("scenario Evaluation"). The objective functions aim at maximising or minimising the success rate of an algorithm. In the "scenario Mining" step, MEBRA identifies the patterns common in problem instances when an algorithm performs best in order to understand when to use it, and in instances when it performs worst in order to understand when not to use it. So far, MEBRA has only been applied to a limited number of problems. Here we demonstrate its viability to efficiently detect hot spots in an algorithm's problem space. In particular, we apply the basic MEBRA rationale in the area of Air Traffic Management (ATM). We examine two widely used algorithms for Aircraft Landing Sequencing: First Come First Served (FCFS) and Constrained Position Shifting (CPS). Through the use of three different problem ("scenario") representations, we identify those patterns in ATM problems that signal instances when CPS performs better than FCFS, and those when it performs worse. We show that scenario representation affects the quality of MEBRA outputs. In particular, we find that the variable-length chromosome representation of aircraft scheduling sequence scenarios converges fast and finds all relevant risk patterns associated with the use of FCFS and CPS

Behavioral Learning of Aircraft Landing Sequencing Using a Society of Probabilistic Finite State Machines

Air Traffic Control (ATC) is a complex safety critical environment. A tower controller would be making many decisions in real-time to sequence aircraft. While some optimization tools exist to help the controller in some airports, even in these situations, the real sequence of the aircraft adopted by the controller is significantly different from the one proposed by the optimization algorithm. This is due to the very dynamic nature of the environment. The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that one can learn from the sequence adopted by the controller some strategies that can act as heuristics in decision support tools for aircraft sequencing. This aim is tested in this paper by attempting to learn sequences generated from a well-known sequencing method that is being used in the real world. The approach relies on a genetic algorithm (GA) to learn these sequences using a society Probabilistic Finite-state Machines (PFSMs). Each PFSM learns a different sub-space; thus, decomposing the learning problem into a group of agents that need to work together to learn the overall problem. Three sequence metrics (Levenshtein, Hamming and Position distances) are compared as the fitness functions in GA. As the results suggest, it is possible to learn the behavior of the algorithm/heuristic that generated the original sequence from very limited information

A Hybrid Tabu/Scatter Search Algorithm for Simulation-Based Optimization of Multi-Objective Runway Operations Scheduling

As air traffic continues to increase, air traffic flow management is becoming more challenging to effectively and efficiently utilize airport capacity without compromising safety, environmental and economic requirements. Since runways are often the primary limiting factor in airport capacity, runway operations scheduling emerge as an important problem to be solved to alleviate flight delays and air traffic congestion while reducing unnecessary fuel consumption and negative environmental impacts. However, even a moderately sized real-life runway operations scheduling problem tends to be too complex to be solved by analytical methods, where all mathematical models for this problem belong to the complexity class of NP-Hard in a strong sense due to combinatorial nature of the problem. Therefore, it is only possible to solve practical runway operations scheduling problem by making a large number of simplifications and assumptions in a deterministic context. As a result, most analytical models proposed in the literature suffer from too much abstraction, avoid uncertainties and, in turn, have little applicability in practice. On the other hand, simulation-based methods have the capability to characterize complex and stochastic real-life runway operations in detail, and to cope with several constraints and stakeholders’ preferences, which are commonly considered as important factors in practice. This dissertation proposes a simulation-based optimization (SbO) approach for multi-objective runway operations scheduling problem. The SbO approach utilizes a discrete-event simulation model for accounting for uncertain conditions, and an optimization component for finding the best known Pareto set of solutions. This approach explicitly considers uncertainty to decrease the real operational cost of the runway operations as well as fairness among aircraft as part of the optimization process. Due to the problem’s large, complex and unstructured search space, a hybrid Tabu/Scatter Search algorithm is developed to find solutions by using an elitist strategy to preserve non-dominated solutions, a dynamic update mechanism to produce high-quality solutions and a rebuilding strategy to promote solution diversity. The proposed algorithm is applied to bi-objective (i.e., maximizing runway utilization and fairness) runway operations schedule optimization as the optimization component of the SbO framework, where the developed simulation model acts as an external function evaluator. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first SbO approach that explicitly considers uncertainties in the development of schedules for runway operations as well as considers fairness as a secondary objective. In addition, computational experiments are conducted using real-life datasets for a major US airport to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective and computationally tractable in a practical sense. In the experimental design, statistical design of experiments method is employed to analyze the impacts of parameters on the simulation as well as on the optimization component’s performance, and to identify the appropriate parameter levels. The results show that the implementation of the proposed SbO approach provides operational benefits when compared to First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) and deterministic approaches without compromising schedule fairness. It is also shown that proposed algorithm is capable of generating a set of solutions that represent the inherent trade-offs between the objectives that are considered. The proposed decision-making algorithm might be used as part of decision support tools to aid air traffic controllers in solving the real-life runway operations scheduling problem

UAS in the Airspace: A Review on Integration, Simulation, Optimization, and Open Challenges

Air transportation is essential for society, and it is increasing gradually due to its importance. To improve the airspace operation, new technologies are under development, such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). In fact, in the past few years, there has been a growth in UAS numbers in segregated airspace. However, there is an interest in integrating these aircraft into the National Airspace System (NAS). The UAS is vital to different industries due to its advantages brought to the airspace (e.g., efficiency). Conversely, the relationship between UAS and Air Traffic Control (ATC) needs to be well-defined due to the impacts on ATC capacity these aircraft may present. Throughout the years, this impact may be lower than it is nowadays because the current lack of familiarity in this relationship contributes to higher workload levels. Thereupon, the primary goal of this research is to present a comprehensive review of the advancements in the integration of UAS in the National Airspace System (NAS) from different perspectives. We consider the challenges regarding simulation, final approach, and optimization of problems related to the interoperability of such systems in the airspace. Finally, we identify several open challenges in the field based on the existing state-of-the-art proposals

Optimisation du trafic aérien à l'arrivée dans la zone terminale et dans l'espace aérien étendu

Selon les prévisions à long terme du trafic aérien de l'Organisation de l'Aviation Civile Internationale (OACI) en 2018, le trafic mondial de passagers devrait augmenter de 4,2% par an de 2018 à 2038. Bien que l'épidémie de COVID-19 ait eu un impact énorme sur le transport aérien, il se rétablit progressivement. Dès lors, l'efficacité et la sécurité resteront les principales problématiques du trafic aérien, notamment au niveau de la piste qui est le principal goulot d'étranglement du système. Dans le domaine de la gestion du trafic aérien, la zone de manœuvre terminale (TMA) est l'une des zones les plus complexes à gérer. En conséquence, le développement d'outils d'aide à la décision pour gérer l'arrivée des avions est primordial. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons deux approaches d'optimisation qui visent à fournir des solutions de contrôle pour la gestion des arrivées dans la TMA et dans un horizon étendu intégrant la phase en route. Premièrement, nous abordons le problème d'ordonnancement des avions sous incertitude dans la TMA. La quantification et la propagation de l'incertitude le long des routes sont réalisées grâce à un modèle de trajectoire qui représente les informations temporelles sous forme de variables aléatoires. La détection et la résolution des conflits sont effectuées à des points de cheminement d'un réseau prédéfini sur la base des informations temporelles prédites à partir de ce modèle. En minimisant l'espérance du nombre de conflits, les vols peuvent être bien séparés. Outre le modèle proposé, deux autres modèles de la litérrature - un modèle déterministe et un modèle intégrant des marges de séparation - sont présentés comme références. Un recuit simulé (SA) combiné à une fenêtre glissante temporelle est proposé pour résoudre une étude de cas de l'aéroport de Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG). De plus, un cadre de simulation basé sur l'approche Monte-Carlo est implémenté pour perturber aléatoirement les horaires optimisés des trois modèles afin d'évaluer leurs performances. Les résultats statistiques montrent que le modèle proposé présente des avantages absolus dans l'absorption des conflits en cas d'incertitude. Dans une deuxième partie, nous abordons un problème dynamique basé sur le concept de Gestion des Arrivées Étendue (E-AMAN). L'horizon E-AMAN est étendu jusqu'à 500 NM de l'aéroport de destination permettant ainsi une planification anticipée. Le caractère dynamique est traitée par la mise à jour périodique des informations de trajectoires réelles sur la base de l'approche par horizon glissant. Pour chaque horizon temporel, un sous-problème est établi avec pour objectif une somme pondérée de métriques de sécurité du segment en route et de la TMA. Une approche d'attribution dynamique des poids est proposée pour souligner le fait qu'à mesure qu'un aéronef se rapproche de la TMA, le poids de ses métriques associées à la TMA devrait augmenter. Une étude de cas est réalisée à partir des données réelles de l'aéroport de Paris CDG. Les résultats finaux montrent que grâce à cet ajustement anticipé, les heures d'arrivée des avions sont proches des heures prévues tout en assurant la sécurité et en réduisant les attentes. Dans la troisième partie de cette thèse, on propose un algorithme qui accélère le processus d'optimisation. Au lieu d'évaluer les performances de tous les aéronefs, les performances d'un seul aéronef sont concentrées dans la fonction objectif. Grâce à ce changement, le processus d'optimisation bénéficie d'une évaluation d'objectif rapide et d'une vitesse de convergence élevée. Afin de vérifier l'algorithme proposé, les résultats sont analysés en termes de temps d'exécution et de qualité des résultats par rapport à l'algorithme utilisé à l'origine.According to the long term air traffic forecasts done by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in 2018, global passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4.2% annually from 2018 to 2038 using the traffic data of 2018 as a baseline. Even though the outbreak of COVID-19 has caused a huge impact on the air transportation, it is gradually restoring. Considering the potential demand in future, air traffic efficiency and safety will remain critical issues to be considered. In the airspace system, the runway is the main bottleneck in the aviation chain. Moreover, in the domain of air traffic management, the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) is one of the most complex areas with all arrivals converging to land. This motivates the development of suitable decision support tools for providing proper advisories for arrival management. In this thesis, we propose two optimization approaches that aim to provide suitable control solutions for arrival management in the TMA and in the extended horizon that includes the TMA and the enroute phase. In the first part of this thesis, we address the aircraft scheduling problem under uncertainty in the TMA. Uncertainty quantification and propagation along the routes are realized in a trajectory model that formulates the time information as random variables. Conflict detection and resolution are performed at waypoints of a predefined network based on the predicted time information from the trajectory model. By minimizing the expected number of conflicts, consecutively operated flights can be well separated. Apart from the proposed model, two other models - the deterministic model and the model that incorporates separation buffers - are presented as benchmarks. Simulated annealing (SA) combined with the time decomposition sliding window approach is used for solving a case study of the Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) airport. Further, a simulation framework based on the Monte-Carlo approach is implemented to randomly perturb the optimized schedules of the three models so as to evaluate their performances. Statistical results show that the proposed model has absolute advantages in conflict absorption when uncertainty arises. In the second part of this thesis, we address a dynamic/on-line problem based on the concept of Extended Arrival MANagement (E-AMAN). The E-AMAN horizon is extended up to 500NM from the destination airport so as to enhance the cooperation and situational awareness of the upstream sector control and the TMA control. The dynamic feature is addressed by periodically updating the real aircraft trajectory information based on the rolling horizon approach. For each time horizon, a sub-problem is established taking the weighted sum of safety metrics in the enroute segment and in the TMA as objective. A dynamic weights assignment approach is proposed to emphasize the fact that as an aircraft gets closer to the TMA, the weight for its metrics associated with the TMA should increase. A case study is carried out using the real arrival traffic data of the Paris CDG airport. Final results show that through early adjustment, the arrival time of the aircraft can meet the required schedule for entering the TMA, thus ensuring overall safety and reducing holding time. In the third part of this thesis, an algorithm that expedites the optimization process is proposed. Instead of evaluating the performance of all aircraft, single aircraft performance is focused and a corresponding objective function is created. Through this change, the optimization process benefits from fast evaluation of objective and high convergence speed. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, results are analyzed in terms of execution time and quality of result compared to the originally used algorithm

Maximising runway capacity by mid-term prediction of runway configuration and aircraft sequencing using machine learning

Maximising runway capacity is one of the essential measures to meet the growing traffic demand. Runway capacity maximisation is an open challenge in the literature due to a complex and non-linear interplay of many factors which are stochastic in nature such as wind, weather, and arrival and departure sequence of aircraft. However, an effective sequencing of arrivals and departures may condense the service time on runway, thereby generating opportunities for new landing or take-off slots, which may maximise the runway capacity. In addition, sequencing of arrivals and departures optimised for a predicted runway configuration, given the weather and wind conditions, may lead to maximising the runway capacity. First, I develop an optimisation method, using aircraft position shifting and path-planning, for aircraft sequencing for a single runway airport. The proposed method can provide an optimal aircraft sequence, for both arrivals and departures, such that it minimises the total inter-arrival and departure times and, consequently, maximises the runway throughput. The proposed method implements several arrival/departure sequencing strategies, i.e., constraint position-shifting with one, two and N-positions, and First Come First Serve (FCFS) in order to obtain an optimal sequence (i.e., a sequence with the lowest process time). The novelty of the sequencing model is to incorporate the Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STAR) for path planning and sequencing of arriving aircraft at Final Approach Fix (FAF) and departing aircraft sequence at the runway threshold. The simulation result demonstrates that the model can increase up to 15% of the runway capacity compared with the commonly used aircraft sequencing technique (i.e., FCFS). Second, a runway configuration (i.e., a set of runways active in a specific period in a multi-runaway system) plays a vital role in determining runway capacity. Thus, I developed an evolutionary computation (Cooperative Co-evolutionary with Genetic Algorithm) algorithm for determining which runway configuration is most suitable for processing a given optimal aircraft sequence (arrival-departure), such that the runway capacity is maximised in a multi-runway system. The proposed algorithm models and uses Runway Configuration Capacity Envelopes (RCCEs) which defines arrival and departure throughputs. RCCE helps in identifying the unique capacity constraints based on which runways are used, for example, arrivals/departures or both. In the proposed evolutionary algorithm (CCoGA), the runway configuration and aircraft sequence are modelled as two species which interacts and evolve co-operatively to yield the best populations (combination) for maximising runway capacity. The fitness function for the optimal sequence species is to reduce the total process time for a given runway configuration, while fitness function for the runway configuration species is to maximises the total capacity for the given optimal sequence. The simulation results show that CCoGA can provide trade-off solutions with multiple runway configurations, for a given arrival-departure sequence, which can lead to capacity maximisation. Third, the weather conditions at an airport play a major role in determining the runway configuration which then has a significant impact on its runway capacity. Typically, aircraft take-off and landing operations use the runways which are most closely aligned with the wind direction, speed and other factors (e.g., cloud ceiling, visibility). However, selecting a runway configuration is a challenging task because it requires not only wind/weather (current and predicted) conditions but also the arrival/departure sequence (active and anticipated) at an airport. Predicting a suitable runway configuration under the operating conditions and a given traffic distribution may be useful for maximising the runway capacity. To achieve that, I first propose a Machine Learning (ML) model for predicting a suitable runway configuration given wind/weather and arrival/departure sequence. The simulation results demonstrate the accuracy of the prediction (98%) and usefulness of the ML techniques for assisting Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) to choose certain runway configuration based on real-world weather data. In the final part of this thesis, I extend the ML model for forecasting runway configuration and develop a capacity estimation model for estimating associated capacity in a medium-term horizon (6 hours). The proposed model incorporates influencing factors (i.e., wind, visibility, cloud ceiling, and operation time) as well as all possible runway layouts for predicting the most suitable configuration. As a case study for Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, one month of airport weather data and associated runway configurations are processed to train and test the developed ML model. The results, on two days of sample traffic data, demonstrate the prediction accuracy of the ML model of up to 98%. Also, it is demonstrated that the ML predicted configuration can accommodate an additional number of flights (i.e., up to 20 flights) within one hour. This shows the viability and benefits of using ML approach for maximising runway capacity

Integrated and joint optimisation of runway-taxiway-apron operations on airport surface

Airports are the main bottlenecks in the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system. The predicted 84% increase in global air traffic in the next two decades has rendered the improvement of airport operational efficiency a key issue in ATM. Although the operations on runways, taxiways, and aprons are highly interconnected and interdependent, the current practice is not integrated and piecemeal, and overly relies on the experience of air traffic controllers and stand allocators to manage operations, which has resulted in sub-optimal performance of the airport surface in terms of operational efficiency, capacity, and safety. This thesis proposes a mixed qualitative-quantitative methodology for integrated and joint optimisation of runways, taxiways, and aprons, aiming to improve the efficiency of airport surface operations by integrating the operations of all three resources and optimising their coordination. This is achieved through a two-stage optimisation procedure: (1) the Integrated Apron and Runway Assignment (IARA) model, which optimises the apron and runway allocations for individual aircraft on a pre-tactical level, and (2) the Integrated Dynamic Routing and Off-block (IDRO) model, which generates taxiing routes and off-block timing decisions for aircraft on an operational (real-time) level. This two-stage procedure considers the interdependencies of the operations of different airport resources, detailed network configurations, air traffic flow characteristics, and operational rules and constraints. The proposed framework is implemented and assessed in a case study at Beijing Capital International Airport. Compared to the current operations, the proposed apron-runway assignment reduces total taxiing distance, average taxiing time, taxiing conflicts, runway queuing time and fuel consumption respectively by 15.5%, 15.28%, 45.1%, [58.7%, 35.3%, 16%] (RWY01, RWY36R, RWY36L) and 6.6%; gated assignment is increased by 11.8%. The operational feasibility of this proposed framework is further validated qualitatively by subject matter experts (SMEs). The potential impact of the integrated apron-runway-taxiway operation is explored with a discussion of its real-world implementation issues and recommendations for industrial and academic practice.Open Acces

Autonomous Systems, Robotics, and Computing Systems Capability Roadmap: NRC Dialogue

Contents include the following: Introduction. Process, Mission Drivers, Deliverables, and Interfaces. Autonomy. Crew-Centered and Remote Operations. Integrated Systems Health Management. Autonomous Vehicle Control. Autonomous Process Control. Robotics. Robotics for Solar System Exploration. Robotics for Lunar and Planetary Habitation. Robotics for In-Space Operations. Computing Systems. Conclusion