AUGUR: Forecasting the Emergence of New Research Topics

Being able to rapidly recognise new research trends is strategic for many stakeholders, including universities, institutional funding bodies, academic publishers and companies. The literature presents several approaches to identifying the emergence of new research topics, which rely on the assumption that the topic is already exhibiting a certain degree of popularity and consistently referred to by a community of researchers. However, detecting the emergence of a new research area at an embryonic stage, i.e., before the topic has been consistently labelled by a community of researchers and associated with a number of publications, is still an open challenge. We address this issue by introducing Augur, a novel approach to the early detection of research topics. Augur analyses the diachronic relationships between research areas and is able to detect clusters of topics that exhibit dynamics correlated with the emergence of new research topics. Here we also present the Advanced Clique Percolation Method (ACPM), a new community detection algorithm developed specifically for supporting this task. Augur was evaluated on a gold standard of 1,408 debutant topics in the 2000-2011 interval and outperformed four alternative approaches in terms of both precision and recall

Betweenness Centrality as a Driver of Preferential Attachment in the Evolution of Research Collaboration Networks

We analyze whether preferential attachment in scientific coauthorship networks is different for authors with different forms of centrality. Using a complete database for the scientific specialty of research about "steel structures," we show that betweenness centrality of an existing node is a significantly better predictor of preferential attachment by new entrants than degree or closeness centrality. During the growth of a network, preferential attachment shifts from (local) degree centrality to betweenness centrality as a global measure. An interpretation is that supervisors of PhD projects and postdocs broker between new entrants and the already existing network, and thus become focal to preferential attachment. Because of this mediation, scholarly networks can be expected to develop differently from networks which are predicated on preferential attachment to nodes with high degree centrality.Comment: Journal of Informetrics (in press

Quantifying knowledge exchange in R&D networks: A data-driven model

We propose a model that reflects two important processes in R&D activities of firms, the formation of R&D alliances and the exchange of knowledge as a result of these collaborations. In a data-driven approach, we analyze two large-scale data sets extracting unique information about 7500 R&D alliances and 5200 patent portfolios of firms. This data is used to calibrate the model parameters for network formation and knowledge exchange. We obtain probabilities for incumbent and newcomer firms to link to other incumbents or newcomers which are able to reproduce the topology of the empirical R&D network. The position of firms in a knowledge space is obtained from their patents using two different classification schemes, IPC in 8 dimensions and ISI-OST-INPI in 35 dimensions. Our dynamics of knowledge exchange assumes that collaborating firms approach each other in knowledge space at a rate $\mu$ for an alliance duration $\tau$. Both parameters are obtained in two different ways, by comparing knowledge distances from simulations and empirics and by analyzing the collaboration efficiency $\mathcal{\hat{C}}_{n}$. This is a new measure, that takes also in account the effort of firms to maintain concurrent alliances, and is evaluated via extensive computer simulations. We find that R&D alliances have a duration of around two years and that the subsequent knowledge exchange occurs at a very low rate. Hence, a firm's position in the knowledge space is rather a determinant than a consequence of its R&D alliances. From our data-driven approach we also find model configurations that can be both realistic and optimized with respect to the collaboration efficiency $\mathcal{\hat{C}}_{n}$. Effective policies, as suggested by our model, would incentivize shorter R&D alliances and higher knowledge exchange rates.Comment: 35 pages, 10 figure

Evolutionary Dilemmas in a Social Network

We simulate the prisoner's dilemma and hawk-dove games on a real social acquaintance network. Using a discrete analogue of replicator dynamics, we show that surprisingly high levels of cooperation can be achieved, contrary to what happens in unstructured mixing populations. Moreover, we empirically show that cooperation in this network is stable with respect to invasion by defectors.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures; to be published in Lecture Notes in Computer Science 200

The Local Emergence and Global Diffusion of Research Technologies: An Exploration of Patterns of Network Formation

Grasping the fruits of "emerging technologies" is an objective of many government priority programs in a knowledge-based and globalizing economy. We use the publication records (in the Science Citation Index) of two emerging technologies to study the mechanisms of diffusion in the case of two innovation trajectories: small interference RNA (siRNA) and nano-crystalline solar cells (NCSC). Methods for analyzing and visualizing geographical and cognitive diffusion are specified as indicators of different dynamics. Geographical diffusion is illustrated with overlays to Google Maps; cognitive diffusion is mapped using an overlay to a map based on the ISI Subject Categories. The evolving geographical networks show both preferential attachment and small-world characteristics. The strength of preferential attachment decreases over time, while the network evolves into an oligopolistic control structure with small-world characteristics. The transition from disciplinary-oriented ("mode-1") to transfer-oriented ("mode-2") research is suggested as the crucial difference in explaining the different rates of diffusion between siRNA and NCSC