Financial time series representation using multiresolution important point retrieval method

Financial time series analysis usually conducts by determining the series important points. These important points which are the peaks and the dips indicate the affecting of some important factors or events which are available both internal factors and external factors. The peak and the dip points of the series may appear frequently in multiresolution over time. However, to manipulate financial time series, researchers usually decrease this complexity of time series in their techniques. Consequently, transfonning the time series into another easily understanding representation is usually considered as an appropriate approach. In this paper, we propose a multiresolution important point retrieval method for financial time series representation. The idea of the method is based on finding the most important points in multiresolution. These retrieved important points are recorded in each resolution. The collected important points are used to construct the TS-binary search tree. From the TS-binary search tree, the application of time series segmentation is conducted. The experimental results show that the TS-binary search tree representation for financial time series exhibits different performance in different number of cutting points, however, in the empirical results, the number of cutting points which are larger than 12 points show the better results

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

ALGORITHMIC METHODS FOR SEGMENTATION OF TIME SERIES: AN OVERVIEW

Adaptive and innovative application of classical data mining principles and techniques in time series analysis has resulted in development of a concept known as time series data mining. Since the time series are present in all areas of business and scientific research, attractiveness of mining of time series datasets should not be seen only in the context of the research challenges in the scientific community, but also in terms of usefulness of the research results, as a support to the process of business decision-making. A fundamental component in the mining process of time series data is time series segmentation. As a data mining research problem, segmentation is focused on the discovery of rules in movements of observed phenomena in a form of interpretable, novel, and useful temporal patterns. In this Paper, a comprehensive review of the conceptual determinations, including the elements of comparative analysis, of the most commonly used algorithms for segmentation of time series, is being considered

Time series data mining: preprocessing, analysis, segmentation and prediction. Applications

Currently, the amount of data which is produced for any information system is increasing exponentially. This motivates the development of automatic techniques to process and mine these data correctly. Specifically, in this Thesis, we tackled these problems for time series data, that is, temporal data which is collected chronologically. This kind of data can be found in many fields of science, such as palaeoclimatology, hydrology, financial problems, etc. TSDM consists of several tasks which try to achieve different objectives, such as, classification, segmentation, clustering, prediction, analysis, etc. However, in this Thesis, we focus on time series preprocessing, segmentation and prediction. Time series preprocessing is a prerequisite for other posterior tasks: for example, the reconstruction of missing values in incomplete parts of time series can be essential for clustering them. In this Thesis, we tackled the problem of massive missing data reconstruction in SWH time series from the Gulf of Alaska. It is very common that buoys stop working for different periods, what it is usually related to malfunctioning or bad weather conditions. The relation of the time series of each buoy is analysed and exploited to reconstruct the whole missing time series. In this context, EANNs with PUs are trained, showing that the resulting models are simple and able to recover these values with high precision. In the case of time series segmentation, the procedure consists in dividing the time series into different subsequences to achieve different purposes. This segmentation can be done trying to find useful patterns in the time series. In this Thesis, we have developed novel bioinspired algorithms in this context. For instance, for paleoclimate data, an initial genetic algorithm was proposed to discover early warning signals of TPs, whose detection was supported by expert opinions. However, given that the expert had to individually evaluate every solution given by the algorithm, the evaluation of the results was very tedious. This led to an improvement in the body of the GA to evaluate the procedure automatically. For significant wave height time series, the objective was the detection of groups which contains extreme waves, i.e. those which are relatively large with respect other waves close in time. The main motivation is to design alert systems. This was done using an HA, where an LS process was included by using a likelihood-based segmentation, assuming that the points follow a beta distribution. Finally, the analysis of similarities in different periods of European stock markets was also tackled with the aim of evaluating the influence of different markets in Europe. When segmenting time series with the aim of reducing the number of points, different techniques have been proposed. However, it is an open challenge given the difficulty to operate with large amounts of data in different applications. In this work, we propose a novel statistically-driven CRO algorithm (SCRO), which automatically adapts its parameters during the evolution, taking into account the statistical distribution of the population fitness. This algorithm improves the state-of-the-art with respect to accuracy and robustness. Also, this problem has been tackled using an improvement of the BBPSO algorithm, which includes a dynamical update of the cognitive and social components in the evolution, combined with mathematical tricks to obtain the fitness of the solutions, which significantly reduces the computational cost of previously proposed coral reef methods. Also, the optimisation of both objectives (clustering quality and approximation quality), which are in conflict, could be an interesting open challenge, which will be tackled in this Thesis. For that, an MOEA for time series segmentation is developed, improving the clustering quality of the solutions and their approximation. The prediction in time series is the estimation of future values by observing and studying the previous ones. In this context, we solve this task by applying prediction over high-order representations of the elements of the time series, i.e. the segments obtained by time series segmentation. This is applied to two challenging problems, i.e. the prediction of extreme wave height and fog prediction. On the one hand, the number of extreme values in SWH time series is less with respect to the number of standard values. In this way, the prediction of these values cannot be done using standard algorithms without taking into account the imbalanced ratio of the dataset. For that, an algorithm that automatically finds the set of segments and then applies EANNs is developed, showing the high ability of the algorithm to detect and predict these special events. On the other hand, fog prediction is affected by the same problem, that is, the number of fog events is much lower tan that of non-fog events, requiring a special treatment too. A preprocessing of different data coming from sensors situated in different parts of the Valladolid airport are used for making a simple ANN model, which is physically corroborated and discussed. The last challenge which opens new horizons is the estimation of the statistical distribution of time series to guide different methodologies. For this, the estimation of a mixed distribution for SWH time series is then used for fixing the threshold of POT approaches. Also, the determination of the fittest distribution for the time series is used for discretising it and making a prediction which treats the problem as ordinal classification. The work developed in this Thesis is supported by twelve papers in international journals, seven papers in international conferences, and four papers in national conferences

Adaptive Evolutionary Clustering

In many practical applications of clustering, the objects to be clustered evolve over time, and a clustering result is desired at each time step. In such applications, evolutionary clustering typically outperforms traditional static clustering by producing clustering results that reflect long-term trends while being robust to short-term variations. Several evolutionary clustering algorithms have recently been proposed, often by adding a temporal smoothness penalty to the cost function of a static clustering method. In this paper, we introduce a different approach to evolutionary clustering by accurately tracking the time-varying proximities between objects followed by static clustering. We present an evolutionary clustering framework that adaptively estimates the optimal smoothing parameter using shrinkage estimation, a statistical approach that improves a naive estimate using additional information. The proposed framework can be used to extend a variety of static clustering algorithms, including hierarchical, k-means, and spectral clustering, into evolutionary clustering algorithms. Experiments on synthetic and real data sets indicate that the proposed framework outperforms static clustering and existing evolutionary clustering algorithms in many scenarios.Comment: To appear in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, MATLAB toolbox available at http://tbayes.eecs.umich.edu/xukevin/affec

A posteriori Trading-inspired Model-free Time Series Segmentation

Within the context of multivariate time series segmentation this paper proposes a method inspired by a posteriori optimal trading. After a normalization step time series are treated channel-wise as surrogate stock prices that can be traded optimally a posteriori in a virtual portfolio holding either stock or cash. Linear transaction costs are interpreted as hyperparameters for noise filtering. Resulting trading signals as well as resulting trading signals obtained on the reversed time series are used for unsupervised labeling, before a consensus over channels is reached that determines segmentation time instants. The method is model-free such that no model prescriptions for segments are made. Benefits of proposed approach include simplicity, computational efficiency and adaptability to a wide range of different shapes of time series. Performance is demonstrated on synthetic and real-world data, including a large-scale dataset comprising a multivariate time series of dimension 1000 and length 2709. Proposed method is compared to a popular model-based bottom-up approach fitting piecewise affine models and to a recent model-based top-down approach fitting Gaussian models, and found to be consistently faster while producing more intuitive results.Comment: 9 pages, double column, 13 figures, 2 table