Langevin and Hamiltonian based Sequential MCMC for Efficient Bayesian Filtering in High-dimensional Spaces

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, also known as particle filtering. Nevertheless, this method tends to be inefficient when applied to high dimensional problems. In this paper, we focus on another class of sequential inference methods, namely the Sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) techniques, which represent a promising alternative to SMC methods. After providing a unifying framework for the class of SMCMC approaches, we propose novel efficient strategies based on the principle of Langevin diffusion and Hamiltonian dynamics in order to cope with the increasing number of high-dimensional applications. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithms achieve significantly better performance compared to existing algorithms

Nonasymptotic analysis of adaptive and annealed Feynman-Kac particle models

Sequential and quantum Monte Carlo methods, as well as genetic type search algorithms can be interpreted as a mean field and interacting particle approximations of Feynman-Kac models in distribution spaces. The performance of these population Monte Carlo algorithms is strongly related to the stability properties of nonlinear Feynman-Kac semigroups. In this paper, we analyze these models in terms of Dobrushin ergodic coefficients of the reference Markov transitions and the oscillations of the potential functions. Sufficient conditions for uniform concentration inequalities w.r.t. time are expressed explicitly in terms of these two quantities. We provide an original perturbation analysis that applies to annealed and adaptive Feynman-Kac models, yielding what seems to be the first results of this kind for these types of models. Special attention is devoted to the particular case of Boltzmann-Gibbs measures' sampling. In this context, we design an explicit way of tuning the number of Markov chain Monte Carlo iterations with temperature schedule. We also design an alternative interacting particle method based on an adaptive strategy to define the temperature increments. The theoretical analysis of the performance of this adaptive model is much more involved as both the potential functions and the reference Markov transitions now depend on the random evolution on the particle model. The nonasymptotic analysis of these complex adaptive models is an open research problem. We initiate this study with the concentration analysis of a simplified adaptive models based on reference Markov transitions that coincide with the limiting quantities, as the number of particles tends to infinity.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/14-BEJ680 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Computational Intelligence Sequential Monte Carlos for Recursive Bayesian Estimation

Recursive Bayesian estimation using sequential Monte Carlos methods is a powerful numerical technique to understand latent dynamics of non-linear non-Gaussian dynamical systems. Classical sequential Monte Carlos suffer from weight degeneracy which is where the number of distinct particles collapse. Traditionally this is addressed by resampling, which effectively replaces high weight particles with many particles with high inter-particle correlation. Frequent resampling, however, leads to a lack of diversity amongst the particle set in a problem known as sample impoverishment. Traditional sequential Monte Carlo methods attempt to resolve this correlated problem however introduce further data processing issues leading to minimal to comparable performance improvements over the sequential Monte Carlo particle filter. A new method, the adaptive path particle filter, is proposed for recursive Bayesian estimation of non-linear non-Gaussian dynamical systems. Our method addresses the weight degeneracy and sample impoverishment problem by embedding a computational intelligence step of adaptive path switching between generations based on maximal likelihood as a fitness function. Preliminary tests on a scalar estimation problem with non-linear non-Gaussian dynamics and a non-stationary observation model and the traditional univariate stochastic volatility problem are presented. Building on these preliminary results, we evaluate our adaptive path particle filter on the stochastic volatility estimation problem. We calibrate the Heston stochastic volatility model employing a Markov chain Monte Carlo on six securities. Finally, we investigate the efficacy of sequential Monte Carlos for recursive Bayesian estimation of astrophysical time series. We posit latent dynamics for both regularized and irregular astrophysical time series, calibrating fifty-five quasar time series using the CAR(1) model. We find the adaptive path particle filter to statistically significantly outperform the standard sequential importance resampling particle filter, the Markov chain Monte Carlo particle filter and, upon Heston model estimation, the particle learning algorithm particle filter. In addition, from our quasar MCMC calibration we find the characteristic timescale τ to be first-order stable in contradiction to the literature though indicative of a unified underlying structure. We offer detailed analysis throughout, and conclude with a discussion and suggestions for future work

Global parameter identification of stochastic reaction networks from single trajectories

We consider the problem of inferring the unknown parameters of a stochastic biochemical network model from a single measured time-course of the concentration of some of the involved species. Such measurements are available, e.g., from live-cell fluorescence microscopy in image-based systems biology. In addition, fluctuation time-courses from, e.g., fluorescence correlation spectroscopy provide additional information about the system dynamics that can be used to more robustly infer parameters than when considering only mean concentrations. Estimating model parameters from a single experimental trajectory enables single-cell measurements and quantification of cell--cell variability. We propose a novel combination of an adaptive Monte Carlo sampler, called Gaussian Adaptation, and efficient exact stochastic simulation algorithms that allows parameter identification from single stochastic trajectories. We benchmark the proposed method on a linear and a non-linear reaction network at steady state and during transient phases. In addition, we demonstrate that the present method also provides an ellipsoidal volume estimate of the viable part of parameter space and is able to estimate the physical volume of the compartment in which the observed reactions take place.Comment: Article in print as a book chapter in Springer's "Advances in Systems Biology

Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks - OMCO NET

The mini conference “Optimisation of Mobile Communication Networks” focuses on advanced methods for search and optimisation applied to wireless communication networks. It is sponsored by Research & Enterprise Fund Southampton Solent University. The conference strives to widen knowledge on advanced search methods capable of optimisation of wireless communications networks. The aim is to provide a forum for exchange of recent knowledge, new ideas and trends in this progressive and challenging area. The conference will popularise new successful approaches on resolving hard tasks such as minimisation of transmit power, cooperative and optimal routing