Short-term fire front spread prediction using inverse modelling and airborne infrared images

A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the current models only provide a rough approximation of the forthcoming fire positions and dynamics. The problem can be tackled by coupling data assimilation and inverse modelling techniques. We present an inverse modelling-based algorithm that uses infrared airborne images to forecast short-term wildfire dynamics with a positive lead time. The algorithm is applied to two real-scale mallee-heath shrubland fire experiments, of 9 and 25 ha, successfully forecasting the fire perimeter shape and position in the short term. Forecast dependency on the assimilation windows is explored to prepare the system to meet real scenario constraints. It is envisaged the system will be applied at larger time and space scales.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Multi-objective optimisation of aircraft flight trajectories in the ATM and avionics context

The continuous increase of air transport demand worldwide and the push for a more economically viable and environmentally sustainable aviation are driving significant evolutions of aircraft, airspace and airport systems design and operations. Although extensive research has been performed on the optimisation of aircraft trajectories and very efficient algorithms were widely adopted for the optimisation of vertical flight profiles, it is only in the last few years that higher levels of automation were proposed for integrated flight planning and re-routing functionalities of innovative Communication Navigation and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) and Avionics (CNS+A) systems. In this context, the implementation of additional environmental targets and of multiple operational constraints introduces the need to efficiently deal with multiple objectives as part of the trajectory optimisation algorithm. This article provides a comprehensive review of Multi-Objective Trajectory Optimisation (MOTO) techniques for transport aircraft flight operations, with a special focus on the recent advances introduced in the CNS+A research context. In the first section, a brief introduction is given, together with an overview of the main international research initiatives where this topic has been studied, and the problem statement is provided. The second section introduces the mathematical formulation and the third section reviews the numerical solution techniques, including discretisation and optimisation methods for the specific problem formulated. The fourth section summarises the strategies to articulate the preferences and to select optimal trajectories when multiple conflicting objectives are introduced. The fifth section introduces a number of models defining the optimality criteria and constraints typically adopted in MOTO studies, including fuel consumption, air pollutant and noise emissions, operational costs, condensation trails, airspace and airport operations

Adaptive swarm optimisation assisted surrogate model for pipeline leak detection and characterisation.

Pipelines are often subject to leakage due to ageing, corrosion and weld defects. It is difficult to avoid pipeline leakage as the sources of leaks are diverse. Various pipeline leakage detection methods, including fibre optic, pressure point analysis and numerical modelling, have been proposed during the last decades. One major issue of these methods is distinguishing the leak signal without giving false alarms. Considering that the data obtained by these traditional methods are digital in nature, the machine learning model has been adopted to improve the accuracy of pipeline leakage detection. However, most of these methods rely on a large training dataset for accurate training models. It is difficult to obtain experimental data for accurate model training. Some of the reasons include the huge cost of an experimental setup for data collection to cover all possible scenarios, poor accessibility to the remote pipeline, and labour-intensive experiments. Moreover, datasets constructed from data acquired in laboratory or field tests are usually imbalanced, as leakage data samples are generated from artificial leaks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offers the benefits of providing detailed and accurate pipeline leakage modelling, which may be difficult to obtain experimentally or with the aid of analytical approach. However, CFD simulation is typically time-consuming and computationally expensive, limiting its pertinence in real-time applications. In order to alleviate the high computational cost of CFD modelling, this study proposed a novel data sampling optimisation algorithm, called Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimisation Assisted Surrogate Model (PSOASM), to systematically select simulation scenarios for simulation in an adaptive and optimised manner. The algorithm was designed to place a new sample in a poorly sampled region or regions in parameter space of parametrised leakage scenarios, which the uniform sampling methods may easily miss. This was achieved using two criteria: population density of the training dataset and model prediction fitness value. The model prediction fitness value was used to enhance the global exploration capability of the surrogate model, while the population density of training data samples is beneficial to the local accuracy of the surrogate model. The proposed PSOASM was compared with four conventional sequential sampling approaches and tested on six commonly used benchmark functions in the literature. Different machine learning algorithms are explored with the developed model. The effect of the initial sample size on surrogate model performance was evaluated. Next, pipeline leakage detection analysis - with much emphasis on a multiphase flow system - was investigated in order to find the flow field parameters that provide pertinent indicators in pipeline leakage detection and characterisation. Plausible leak scenarios which may occur in the field were performed for the gas-liquid pipeline using a three-dimensional RANS CFD model. The perturbation of the pertinent flow field indicators for different leak scenarios is reported, which is expected to help in improving the understanding of multiphase flow behaviour induced by leaks. The results of the simulations were validated against the latest experimental and numerical data reported in the literature. The proposed surrogate model was later applied to pipeline leak detection and characterisation. The CFD modelling results showed that fluid flow parameters are pertinent indicators in pipeline leak detection. It was observed that upstream pipeline pressure could serve as a critical indicator for detecting leakage, even if the leak size is small. In contrast, the downstream flow rate is a dominant leakage indicator if the flow rate monitoring is chosen for leak detection. The results also reveal that when two leaks of different sizes co-occur in a single pipe, detecting the small leak becomes difficult if its size is below 25% of the large leak size. However, in the event of a double leak with equal dimensions, the leak closer to the pipe upstream is easier to detect. The results from all the analyses demonstrate the PSOASM algorithm's superiority over the well-known sequential sampling schemes employed for evaluation. The test results show that the PSOASM algorithm can be applied for pipeline leak detection with limited training datasets and provides a general framework for improving computational efficiency using adaptive surrogate modelling in various real-life applications

Metaheuristic Algorithms for Spatial Multi-Objective Decision Making

Spatial decision making is an everyday activity, common to individuals and organizations. However, recently there is an increasing interest in the importance of spatial decision-making systems, as more decision-makers with concerns about sustainability, social, economic, environmental, land use planning, and transportation issues discover the benefits of geographical information. Many spatial decision problems are regarded as optimization problems, which involve a large set of feasible alternatives, multiple conflicting objectives that are difficult and complex to solve. Hence, Multi-Objective Optimization methods (MOO)—metaheuristic algorithms integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are appealing to be powerful tools in these regards, yet their implementation in spatial context is still challenging. In this thesis, various metaheuristic algorithms are adopted and improved to solve complex spatial problems. Disaster management and urban planning are used as case studies of this thesis.These case studies are explored in the four papers that are part of this thesis. In paper I, four metaheuristic algorithms have been implemented on the same spatial multi-objective problem—evacuation planning, to investigate their performance and potential. The findings show that all tested algorithms were effective in solving the problem, although in general, some had higher performance, while others showed the potential of being flexible to be modified to fit better to the problem. In the same context, paper II identified the effectiveness of the Multi-objective Artificial Bee Colony (MOABC) algorithm when improved to solve the evacuation problem. In paper III, we proposed a multi-objective optimization approach for urban evacuation planning that considered three spatial objectives which were optimized using an improved Multi-Objective Cuckoo Search algorithm (MOCS). Both improved algorithms (MOABC and MOCS) proved to be efficient in solving evacuation planning when compared to their standard version and other algorithms. Moreover, Paper IV proposed an urban land-use allocation model that involved three spatial objectives and proposed an improved Non-dominated Sorting Biogeography-based Optimization algorithm (NSBBO) to solve the problem efficiently and effectively.Overall, the work in this thesis demonstrates that different metaheuristic algorithms have the potential to change the way spatial decision problems are structured and can improve the transparency and facilitate decision-makers to map solutions and interactively modify decision preferences through trade-offs between multiple objectives. Moreover, the obtained results can be used in a systematic way to develop policy recommendations. From the perspective of GIS - Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) research, the thesis contributes to spatial optimization modelling and extended knowledge on the application of metaheuristic algorithms. The insights from this thesis could also benefit the development and practical implementation of other Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to enhance the capabilities of GIS for tackling complex spatial multi-objective decision problems in the future

Evolutionary optimisation of network flow plans for emergency movement in the built environment

Planning for emergency evacuation, and, more generally, for emergency movement involving both evacuation (egress) of occupants and ingress of first responders, presents important and challenging problems. A number of the current issues that arise during emergency incidents are due to the uncertainty and transiency of environmental conditions. In general, movement plans are formulated at building design-time, and those involved, such as building occupants and emergency responders, are left to adapt routing plans to actual events as they unfold. In the context of next-generation emergency response systems, it has been proposed to dynamically plan and route individuals during an emergency event, replanning to take account of changes in the environment. In this work, an emergency movement problem, the Maximal Safest Escape (MSE) problem, is formulated in terms that model the uncertain and transient environmental conditions as a flow problem in time-dependent networks with time-varying and stochastic edge travel-times and capacities (STV Networks). The objective of the MSE problem is to find flow patterns with the a priori maximal probability of successfully conveying all supply from the source to the sink in some given STV Network. The MSE and its deterministic counterpart are proved to be NP-hard. Furthermore, due to inherent complexity in evaluating the exact quality of candidate solutions, a simulation approximation method is presented based on well-known Monte-Carlo sampling methods. Given the complexity of the problem, and using the approximation method for evaluating solutions, it is proposed to tackle the MSE problem using a metaheuristic approach based on an existing framework that integrates Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) with a state-of-the-art statistical ranking and selection method, the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA). Several improvements are proposed for the framework to reduce the computational demand of the ranking method. Empirically, the approach is compared with a simple fitness averaging approach and conditions under which the integrated framework is more efficient are investigated. The performance of the EA is compared against upper and lower bounds on optimal solutions. An upper bound is established through the “wait-and-see” bound, and a lower bound by a naıve random search algorithm (RSA). An experimental design is presented that allows for a fair comparison between the EA and the RSA. While there is no guarantee that the EA will find optimal solutions, this work demonstrates that the EA can still find useful solutions; useful solutions are those that are at least better than some baseline, here the lower bound, in terms of solution quality and computational effort. Experimentally, it is demonstrated that the EA performs significantly better than the baseline. Also, the EA finds solutions relatively close to the upper bound; however, it is difficult to establish how optimistic the upper bounds. The main approach is also compared against an existing approach developed for solving a related problem wrapped in a heuristic procedure in order to apply the approach to the MSE. Empirical results show that the heuristic approach requires significantly less computation time, but finds solutions of significantly lower quality. Overall, this work introduces and empirically verifies the efficacy of a metaheuristic based on a framework integrating EAs with a state-of-the-art statistical ranking and selection technique, the OCBA, for a novel flow problem in STV Networks. It is suggested that the lessons learned during the course of this work, along with the specific techniques developed, may be relevant for addressing other flow problems of similar complexity