Variable grouping in multivariate time series via correlation

The decomposition of high-dimensional multivariate time series (MTS) into a number of low-dimensional MTS is a useful but challenging task because the number of possible dependencies between variables is likely to be huge. This paper is about a systematic study of the “variable groupings” problem in MTS. In particular, we investigate different methods of utilizing the information regarding correlations among MTS variables. This type of method does not appear to have been studied before. In all, 15 methods are suggested and applied to six datasets where there are identifiable mixed groupings of MTS variables. This paper describes the general methodology, reports extensive experimental results, and concludes with useful insights on the strength and weakness of this type of grouping metho

Learning short multivariate time series models through evolutionary and sparse matrix computation

Multivariate time series (MTS) data are widely available in different fields including medicine, finance, bioinformatics, science and engineering. Modelling MTS data accurately is important for many decision making activities. One area that has been largely overlooked so far is the particular type of time series where the data set consists of a large number of variables but with a small number of observations. In this paper we describe the development of a novel computational method based on Natural Computation and sparse matrices that bypasses the size restrictions of traditional statistical MTS methods, makes no distribution assumptions, and also locates the associated parameters. Extensive results are presented, where the proposed method is compared with both traditional statistical and heuristic search techniques and evaluated on a number of criteria. The results have implications for a wide range of applications involving the learning of short MTS models

Transformations in the Scale of Behaviour and the Global Optimisation of Constraints in Adaptive Networks

The natural energy minimisation behaviour of a dynamical system can be interpreted as a simple optimisation process, finding a locally optimal resolution of problem constraints. In human problem solving, high-dimensional problems are often made much easier by inferring a low-dimensional model of the system in which search is more effective. But this is an approach that seems to require top-down domain knowledge; not one amenable to the spontaneous energy minimisation behaviour of a natural dynamical system. However, in this paper we investigate the ability of distributed dynamical systems to improve their constraint resolution ability over time by self-organisation. We use a ‘self-modelling’ Hopfield network with a novel type of associative connection to illustrate how slowly changing relationships between system components can result in a transformation into a new system which is a low-dimensional caricature of the original system. The energy minimisation behaviour of this new system is significantly more effective at globally resolving the original system constraints. This model uses only very simple, and fully-distributed positive feedback mechanisms that are relevant to other ‘active linking’ and adaptive networks. We discuss how this neural network model helps us to understand transformations and emergent collective behaviour in various non-neural adaptive networks such as social, genetic and ecological networks

Scalable Bayesian model averaging through local information propagation

We show that a probabilistic version of the classical forward-stepwise variable inclusion procedure can serve as a general data-augmentation scheme for model space distributions in (generalized) linear models. This latent variable representation takes the form of a Markov process, thereby allowing information propagation algorithms to be applied for sampling from model space posteriors. In particular, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo method for achieving effective unbiased Bayesian model averaging in high-dimensional problems, utilizing proposal distributions constructed using local information propagation. We illustrate our method---called LIPS for local information propagation based sampling---through real and simulated examples with dimensionality ranging from 15 to 1,000, and compare its performance in estimating posterior inclusion probabilities and in out-of-sample prediction to those of several other methods---namely, MCMC, BAS, iBMA, and LASSO. In addition, we show that the latent variable representation can also serve as a modeling tool for specifying model space priors that account for knowledge regarding model complexity and conditional inclusion relationships

The Kalai-Smorodinski solution for many-objective Bayesian optimization

An ongoing aim of research in multiobjective Bayesian optimization is to extend its applicability to a large number of objectives. While coping with a limited budget of evaluations, recovering the set of optimal compromise solutions generally requires numerous observations and is less interpretable since this set tends to grow larger with the number of objectives. We thus propose to focus on a specific solution originating from game theory, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, which possesses attractive properties. In particular, it ensures equal marginal gains over all objectives. We further make it insensitive to a monotonic transformation of the objectives by considering the objectives in the copula space. A novel tailored algorithm is proposed to search for the solution, in the form of a Bayesian optimization algorithm: sequential sampling decisions are made based on acquisition functions that derive from an instrumental Gaussian process prior. Our approach is tested on four problems with respectively four, six, eight, and nine objectives. The method is available in the Rpackage GPGame available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=GPGame

Global adaptation in networks of selfish components: emergent associative memory at the system scale

In some circumstances complex adaptive systems composed of numerous self-interested agents can self-organise into structures that enhance global adaptation, efficiency or function. However, the general conditions for such an outcome are poorly understood and present a fundamental open question for domains as varied as ecology, sociology, economics, organismic biology and technological infrastructure design. In contrast, sufficient conditions for artificial neural networks to form structures that perform collective computational processes such as associative memory/recall, classification, generalisation and optimisation, are well-understood. Such global functions within a single agent or organism are not wholly surprising since the mechanisms (e.g. Hebbian learning) that create these neural organisations may be selected for this purpose, but agents in a multi-agent system have no obvious reason to adhere to such a structuring protocol or produce such global behaviours when acting from individual self-interest. However, Hebbian learning is actually a very simple and fully-distributed habituation or positive feedback principle. Here we show that when self-interested agents can modify how they are affected by other agents (e.g. when they can influence which other agents they interact with) then, in adapting these inter-agent relationships to maximise their own utility, they will necessarily alter them in a manner homologous with Hebbian learning. Multi-agent systems with adaptable relationships will thereby exhibit the same system-level behaviours as neural networks under Hebbian learning. For example, improved global efficiency in multi-agent systems can be explained by the inherent ability of associative memory to generalise by idealising stored patterns and/or creating new combinations of sub-patterns. Thus distributed multi-agent systems can spontaneously exhibit adaptive global behaviours in the same sense, and by the same mechanism, as the organisational principles familiar in connectionist models of organismic learning