Modelling discrepancy in Bayesian calibration of reservoir models

Simulation models of physical systems such as oil field reservoirs are subject to numerous uncertainties such as observation errors and inaccurate initial and boundary conditions. However, after accounting for these uncertainties, it is usually observed that the mismatch between the simulator output and the observations remains and the model is still inadequate. This incapability of computer models to reproduce the real-life processes is referred to as model inadequacy. This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for modelling discrepancy in the Bayesian calibration and probabilistic forecasting of reservoir models. The framework efficiently implements data-driven approaches to handle uncertainty caused by ignoring the modelling discrepancy in reservoir predictions using two major hierarchical strategies, parametric and non-parametric hierarchical models. The central focus of this thesis is on an appropriate way of modelling discrepancy and the importance of the model selection in controlling overfitting rather than different solutions to different noise models. The thesis employs a model selection code to obtain the best candidate solutions to the form of non-parametric error models. This enables us to, first, interpolate the error in history period and, second, propagate it towards unseen data (i.e. error generalisation). The error models constructed by inferring parameters of selected models can predict the response variable (e.g. oil rate) at any point in input space (e.g. time) with corresponding generalisation uncertainty. In the real field applications, the error models reliably track down the uncertainty regardless of the type of the sampling method and achieve a better model prediction score compared to the models that ignore discrepancy. All the case studies confirm the enhancement of field variables prediction when the discrepancy is modelled. As for the model parameters, hierarchical error models render less global bias concerning the reference case. However, in the considered case studies, the evidence for better prediction of each of the model parameters by error modelling is inconclusive

Advances in Modeling and Management of Urban Water Networks

The Special Issue on Advances in Modeling and Management of Urban Water Networks (UWNs) explores four important topics of research in the context of UWNs: asset management, modeling of demand and hydraulics, energy recovery, and pipe burst identification and leakage reduction. In the first topic, the multi-objective optimization of interventions on the network is presented to find trade-off solutions between costs and efficiency. In the second topic, methodologies are presented to simulate and predict demand and to simulate network behavior in emergency scenarios. In the third topic, a methodology is presented for the multi-objective optimization of pump-as-turbine (PAT) installation sites in transmission mains. In the fourth topic, methodologies for pipe burst identification and leakage reduction are presented. As for the urban drainage systems (UDSs), the two explored topics are asset management, with a system upgrade to reduce flooding, and modeling of flow and water quality, with analyses on the transition from surface to pressurized flow, impact of water use reduction on the operation of UDSs, and sediment transport in pressurized pipes. The Special Issue also includes one paper dealing with the hydraulic modeling of an urban river with a complex cross-section

SOLID-SHELL FINITE ELEMENT MODELS FOR EXPLICIT SIMULATIONS OF CRACK PROPAGATION IN THIN STRUCTURES

Crack propagation in thin shell structures due to cutting is conveniently simulated using explicit finite element approaches, in view of the high nonlinearity of the problem. Solidshell elements are usually preferred for the discretization in the presence of complex material behavior and degradation phenomena such as delamination, since they allow for a correct representation of the thickness geometry. However, in solid-shell elements the small thickness leads to a very high maximum eigenfrequency, which imply very small stable time-steps. A new selective mass scaling technique is proposed to increase the time-step size without affecting accuracy. New ”directional” cohesive interface elements are used in conjunction with selective mass scaling to account for the interaction with a sharp blade in cutting processes of thin ductile shells

Reservoir Flooding Optimization by Control Polynomial Approximations

In this dissertation, we provide novel parametrization procedures for water-flooding production optimization problems, using polynomial approximation techniques. The methods project the original infinite dimensional controls space into a polynomial subspace. Our contribution includes new parameterization formulations using natural polynomials, orthogonal Chebyshev polynomials and Cubic spline interpolation. We show that the proposed methods are well suited for black-box approach with stochastic global-search method as they tend to produce smooth control trajectories, while reducing the solution space size. We demonstrate their efficiency on synthetic two-dimensional problems and on a realistic 3-dimensional problem. By contributing with a new adjoint method formulation for polynomial approximation, we implemented the methods also with gradient-based algorithms. In addition to fine-scale simulation, we also performed reduced order modeling, where we demonstrated a synergistic effect when combining polynomial approximation with model order reduction, that leads to faster optimization with higher gains in terms of Net Present Value. Finally, we performed gradient-based optimization under uncertainty. We proposed a new multi-objective function with three components, one that maximizes the expected value of all realizations, and two that maximize the averages of distribution tails from both sides. The new objective provides decision makers with the flexibility to choose the amount of risk they are willing to take, while deciding on production strategy or performing reserves estimation (P10;P50;P90)