Forecasting of financial data: a novel fuzzy logic neural network based on error-correction concept and statistics

First, this paper investigates the effect of good and bad news on volatility in the BUX return time series using asymmetric ARCH models. Then, the accuracy of forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic), machine learning methods, and soft/granular RBF network is investigated. To forecast the high-frequency financial data, we apply statistical ARMA and asymmetric GARCH-class models. A novel RBF network architecture is proposed based on incorporation of an error-correction mechanism, which improves forecasting ability of feed-forward neural networks. These proposed modelling approaches and SVM models are applied to predict the high-frequency time series of the BUX stock index. We found that it is possible to enhance forecast accuracy and achieve significant risk reduction in managerial decision making by applying intelligent forecasting models based on latest information technologies. On the other hand, we showed that statistical GARCH-class models can identify the presence of leverage effects, and react to the good and bad news.Web of Science421049

SHADHO: Massively Scalable Hardware-Aware Distributed Hyperparameter Optimization

Computer vision is experiencing an AI renaissance, in which machine learning models are expediting important breakthroughs in academic research and commercial applications. Effectively training these models, however, is not trivial due in part to hyperparameters: user-configured values that control a model's ability to learn from data. Existing hyperparameter optimization methods are highly parallel but make no effort to balance the search across heterogeneous hardware or to prioritize searching high-impact spaces. In this paper, we introduce a framework for massively Scalable Hardware-Aware Distributed Hyperparameter Optimization (SHADHO). Our framework calculates the relative complexity of each search space and monitors performance on the learning task over all trials. These metrics are then used as heuristics to assign hyperparameters to distributed workers based on their hardware. We first demonstrate that our framework achieves double the throughput of a standard distributed hyperparameter optimization framework by optimizing SVM for MNIST using 150 distributed workers. We then conduct model search with SHADHO over the course of one week using 74 GPUs across two compute clusters to optimize U-Net for a cell segmentation task, discovering 515 models that achieve a lower validation loss than standard U-Net.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Theoretical Interpretations and Applications of Radial Basis Function Networks

Medical applications usually used Radial Basis Function Networks just as Artificial Neural Networks. However, RBFNs are Knowledge-Based Networks that can be interpreted in several way: Artificial Neural Networks, Regularization Networks, Support Vector Machines, Wavelet Networks, Fuzzy Controllers, Kernel Estimators, Instanced-Based Learners. A survey of their interpretations and of their corresponding learning algorithms is provided as well as a brief survey on dynamic learning algorithms. RBFNs' interpretations can suggest applications that are particularly interesting in medical domains

Storage Capacity Estimation of Commercial Scale Injection and Storage of CO2 in the Jacksonburg-Stringtown Oil Field, West Virginia

Geological capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is one method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and extending the life of the field. Therefore CCUS coupled with EOR is considered to be an economic approach to demonstration of commercial-scale injection and storage of anthropogenic CO2. Several critical issues should be taken into account prior to injecting large volumes of CO2, such as storage capacity, project duration and long-term containment. Reservoir characterization and 3D geological modeling are the best way to estimate the theoretical CO 2 storage capacity in mature oil fields. The Jacksonburg-Stringtown field, located in northwestern West Virginia, has produced over 22 million barrels of oil (MMBO) since 1895. The sandstone of the Late Devonian Gordon Stray is the primary reservoir.;The Upper Devonian fluvial sandstone reservoirs in Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field, which has produced over 22 million barrels of oil since 1895, are an ideal candidate for CO2 sequestration coupled with EOR. Supercritical depth (\u3e2500 ft.), minimum miscible pressure (941 psi), favorable API gravity (46.5°) and good water flood response are indicators that facilitate CO 2-EOR operations. Moreover, Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field is adjacent to a large concentration of CO2 sources located along the Ohio River that could potentially supply enough CO2 for sequestration and EOR without constructing new pipeline facilities.;Permeability evaluation is a critical parameter to understand the subsurface fluid flow and reservoir management for primary and enhanced hydrocarbon recovery and efficient carbon storage. In this study, a rapid, robust and cost-effective artificial neural network (ANN) model is constructed to predict permeability using the model\u27s strong ability to recognize the possible interrelationships between input and output variables. Two commonly available conventional well logs, gamma ray and bulk density, and three logs derived variables, the slope of GR, the slope of bulk density and Vsh were selected as input parameters and permeability was selected as desired output parameter to train and test an artificial neural network. The results indicate that the ANN model can be applied effectively in permeability prediction.;Porosity is another fundamental property that characterizes the storage capability of fluid and gas bearing formations in a reservoir. In this study, a support vector machine (SVM) with mixed kernels function (MKF) is utilized to construct the relationship between limited conventional well log suites and sparse core data. The input parameters for SVM model consist of core porosity values and the same log suite as ANN\u27s input parameters, and porosity is the desired output. Compared with results from the SVM model with a single kernel function, mixed kernel function based SVM model provide more accurate porosity prediction values.;Base on the well log analysis, four reservoir subunits within a marine-dominated estuarine depositional system are defined: barrier sand, central bay shale, tidal channels and fluvial channel subunits. A 3-D geological model, which is used to estimate theoretical CO2 sequestration capacity, is constructed with the integration of core data, wireline log data and geological background knowledge. Depending on the proposed 3-D geological model, the best regions for coupled CCUS-EOR are located in southern portions of the field, and the estimated CO2 theoretical storage capacity for Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field vary between 24 to 383 million metric tons. The estimation results of CO2 sequestration and EOR potential indicate that the Jacksonburg-Stringtown oilfield has significant potential for CO2 storage and value-added EOR