172,286 research outputs found
Evolution of Threats in the Global Risk Network
With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the
global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates
global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global
pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading failures
caused by the weakest link in a supply chain. Hence, a quantitative
understanding of the mechanisms driving global network vulnerabilities is
urgently needed. Developing methods for efficiently monitoring evolution of the
global economy is essential to such understanding. Each year the World Economic
Forum publishes an authoritative report on the state of the global economy and
identifies risks that are likely to be active, impactful or contagious. Using a
Cascading Alternating Renewal Process approach to model the dynamics of the
global risk network, we are able to answer critical questions regarding the
evolution of this network. To fully trace the evolution of the network we
analyze the asymptotic state of risks (risk levels which would be reached in
the long term if the risks were left unabated) given a snapshot in time, this
elucidates the various challenges faced by the world community at each point in
time. We also investigate the influence exerted by each risk on others. Results
presented here are obtained through either quantitative analysis or
computational simulations.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figure
Evolution of the Global Risk Network Mean-Field Stability Point
With a steadily growing human population and rapid advancements in
technology, the global human network is increasing in size and connection
density. This growth exacerbates networked global threats and can lead to
unexpected consequences such as global epidemics mediated by air travel,
threats in cyberspace, global governance, etc. A quantitative understanding of
the mechanisms guiding this global network is necessary for proper operation
and maintenance of the global infrastructure. Each year the World Economic
Forum publishes an authoritative report on global risks, and applying this data
to a CARP model, we answer critical questions such as how the network evolves
over time. In the evolution, we compare not the current states of the global
risk network at different time points, but its steady state at those points,
which would be reached if the risk were left unabated. Looking at the steady
states show more drastically the differences in the challenges to the global
economy and stability the world community had faced at each point of the time.
Finally, we investigate the influence between risks in the global network,
using a method successful in distinguishing between correlation and causation.
All results presented in the paper were obtained using detailed mathematical
analysis with simulations to support our findings.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, the 6th International Conference on Complex
Networks and Their Application
Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.
Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption
Epistemic policy networks in the European Union’s CBRN risk mitigation policy
This paper offers insights into an innovative and currently flagship approach of the European Union (EU) to the mitigation of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risks. Building on its long-time experience in the CBRN field, the EU has incorporated methods familiar to the students of international security governance: it is establishing regional networks of experts and expertise. CBRN Centers of Excellence, as they are officially called, aim to contribute to the security and safety culture in different parts of Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia, and South East Europe, in the broadly construed CBRN area. These regional networks represent a modern form of security cooperation, which can be conceptualized as an epistemic policy networks approach. It offers flexibility to the participating states, which have different incentives to get involved. At the same, however, the paper identifies potential limitations and challenges of epistemic policy networks in this form
NEMESYS: Enhanced Network Security for Seamless Service Provisioning in the Smart Mobile Ecosystem
As a consequence of the growing popularity of smart mobile devices, mobile
malware is clearly on the rise, with attackers targeting valuable user
information and exploiting vulnerabilities of the mobile ecosystems. With the
emergence of large-scale mobile botnets, smartphones can also be used to launch
attacks on mobile networks. The NEMESYS project will develop novel security
technologies for seamless service provisioning in the smart mobile ecosystem,
and improve mobile network security through better understanding of the threat
landscape. NEMESYS will gather and analyze information about the nature of
cyber-attacks targeting mobile users and the mobile network so that appropriate
counter-measures can be taken. We will develop a data collection infrastructure
that incorporates virtualized mobile honeypots and a honeyclient, to gather,
detect and provide early warning of mobile attacks and better understand the
modus operandi of cyber-criminals that target mobile devices. By correlating
the extracted information with the known patterns of attacks from wireline
networks, we will reveal and identify trends in the way that cyber-criminals
launch attacks against mobile devices.Comment: Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 28th International
Symposium on Computer and Information Sciences (ISCIS'13); 9 pages; 1 figur
The future of Cybersecurity in Italy: Strategic focus area
This volume has been created as a continuation of the previous one, with the aim of outlining a set of focus areas and actions that the Italian Nation research community considers essential. The book touches many aspects of cyber security, ranging from the definition of the infrastructure and controls needed to organize cyberdefence to the actions and technologies to be developed to be better protected, from the identification of the main technologies to be defended to the proposal of a set of horizontal actions for training, awareness raising, and risk management
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