A Review of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies: 1930-Present

One of the most well-known bankruptcy prediction models was developed by Altman [1968] using multivariate discriminant analysis. Since Altman\u27s model, a multitude of bankruptcy prediction models have flooded the literature. The primary goal of this paper is to summarize and analyze existing research on bankruptcy prediction studies in order to facilitate more productive future research in this area. This paper traces the literature on bankruptcy prediction from the 1930\u27s, when studies focused on the use of simple ratio analysis to predict future bankruptcy, to present. The authors discuss how bankruptcy prediction studies have evolved, highlighting the different methods, number and variety of factors, and specific uses of models. Analysis of 165 bankruptcy prediction studies published from 1965 to present reveals trends in model development. For example, discriminant analysis was the primary method used to develop models in the 1960\u27s and 1970\u27s. Investigation of model type by decade shows that the primary method began to shift to logit analysis and neural networks in the 1980\u27s and 1990\u27s. The number of factors utilized in models is also analyzed by decade, showing that the average has varied over time but remains around 10 overall. Analysis of accuracy of the models suggests that multivariate discriminant analysis and neural networks are the most promising methods for bankruptcy prediction models. The findings also suggest that higher model accuracy is not guaranteed with a greater number of factors. Some models with two factors are just as capable of accurate prediction as models with 21 factors

Engineering Resilient Collective Adaptive Systems by Self-Stabilisation

Collective adaptive systems are an emerging class of networked computational systems, particularly suited in application domains such as smart cities, complex sensor networks, and the Internet of Things. These systems tend to feature large scale, heterogeneity of communication model (including opportunistic peer-to-peer wireless interaction), and require inherent self-adaptiveness properties to address unforeseen changes in operating conditions. In this context, it is extremely difficult (if not seemingly intractable) to engineer reusable pieces of distributed behaviour so as to make them provably correct and smoothly composable. Building on the field calculus, a computational model (and associated toolchain) capturing the notion of aggregate network-level computation, we address this problem with an engineering methodology coupling formal theory and computer simulation. On the one hand, functional properties are addressed by identifying the largest-to-date field calculus fragment generating self-stabilising behaviour, guaranteed to eventually attain a correct and stable final state despite any transient perturbation in state or topology, and including highly reusable building blocks for information spreading, aggregation, and time evolution. On the other hand, dynamical properties are addressed by simulation, empirically evaluating the different performances that can be obtained by switching between implementations of building blocks with provably equivalent functional properties. Overall, our methodology sheds light on how to identify core building blocks of collective behaviour, and how to select implementations that improve system performance while leaving overall system function and resiliency properties unchanged.Comment: To appear on ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulatio

Towards a Comprehensible and Accurate Credit Management Model: Application of four Computational Intelligence Methodologies

The paper presents methods for classification of applicants into different categories of credit risk using four different computational intelligence techniques. The selected methodologies involved in the rule-based categorization task are (1) feedforward neural networks trained with second order methods (2) inductive machine learning, (3) hierarchical decision trees produced by grammar-guided genetic programming and (4) fuzzy rule based systems produced by grammar-guided genetic programming. The data used are both numerical and linguistic in nature and they represent a real-world problem, that of deciding whether a loan should be granted or not, in respect to financial details of customers applying for that loan, to a specific private EU bank. We examine the proposed classification models with a sample of enterprises that applied for a loan, each of which is described by financial decision variables (ratios), and classified to one of the four predetermined classes. Attention is given to the comprehensibility and the ease of use for the acquired decision models. Results show that the application of the proposed methods can make the classification task easier and - in some cases - may minimize significantly the amount of required credit data. We consider that these methodologies may also give the chance for the extraction of a comprehensible credit management model or even the incorporation of a related decision support system in bankin

A Soft Computing Approach to Dynamic Load Balancing in 3GPP LTE

A major objective of the 3GPP LTE standard is the provision of high-speed data services. These services must be guaranteed under varying radio propagation conditions, to stochastically distributed mobile users. A necessity for determining and regulating the traffic load of eNodeBs naturally ensues. Load balancing is a self-optimization operation of self-organizing networks (SON). It aims at ensuring an equitable distribution of users in the network. This translates into better user satisfaction and a more efficient use of network resources. Several methods for load balancing have been proposed. Most of the algorithms are based on hard (traditional) computing which does not utilize the tolerance for precision of load balancing. This paper proposes the use of soft computing, precisely adaptive Neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for dynamic QoS aware load balancing in 3GPP LTE. The use of ANFIS offers learning capability of neural network and knowledge representation of fuzzy logic for a load balancing solution that is cost effective and closer to human intuitio

Sustaining entrepreneurial business: a complexity perspective on processes that produce emergent practice

This article examines the management practices in an entrepreneurial small firm which sustain the business. Using a longitudinal qualitative case study, four general processes are identified (experimentation, reflexivity, organising and sensing), that together provide a mechanism to sustain the enterprise. The analysis draws on concepts from entrepreneurship and complexity science. We suggest that an entrepreneur’s awareness of the role of these parallel processes will facilitate their approaches to sustaining and developing enterprises. We also suggest that these processes operate in parallel at multiple levels, including the self, the business and inter-firm networks. This finding contributes to a general theory of entrepreneurship. A number of areas for further research are discussed arising from this result

In situ analysis for intelligent control

We report a pilot study on in situ analysis of backscatter data for intelligent control of a scientific instrument on an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) carried out at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). The objective of the study is to investigate techniques which use machine intelligence to enable event-response scenarios. Specifically we analyse a set of techniques for automated sample acquisition in the water-column using an electro-mechanical "Gulper", designed at MBARI. This is a syringe-like sampling device, carried onboard an AUV. The techniques we use in this study are clustering algorithms, intended to identify the important distinguishing characteristics of bodies of points within a data sample. We demonstrate that the complementary features of two clustering approaches can offer robust identification of interesting features in the water-column, which, in turn, can support automatic event-response control in the use of the Gulper