Stochastic models of evidence accumulation in changing environments

Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing world. What effect does such impermanence have on classical results about decision making? To address this question we use sequential analysis to derive a tractable model of evidence accumulation when the correct option changes in time. Our analysis shows that ideal observers discount prior evidence at a rate determined by the volatility of the environment, and the dynamics of evidence accumulation is governed by the information gained over an average environmental epoch. A plausible neural implementation of an optimal observer in a changing environment shows that, in contrast to previous models, neural populations representing alternate choices are coupled through excitation. Our work builds a bridge between statistical decision making in volatile environments and stochastic nonlinear dynamics.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Marine Benthic Habitat Mapping of Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska With an Evaluation of the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard III

Seafloor geology and potential benthic habitats were mapped in Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, using multibeam sonar, ground-truth information, and geological interpretations. Muir Inlet is a recently deglaciated fjord that is under the influence of glacial and paraglacial marine processes. High glacially derived sediment and meltwater fluxes, slope instabilities, and variable bathymetry result in a highly dynamic estuarine environment and benthic ecosystem. We characterize the fjord seafloor and potential benthic habitats using the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) recently developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NatureServe. Substrates within Muir Inlet are dominated by mud, derived from the high glacial debris flux. Water-column characteristics are derived from a combination of conductivity temperature depth (CTD) measurements and circulation-model results. We also present modern glaciomarine sediment accumulation data from quantitative differential bathymetry. These data show Muir Inlet is divided into two contrasting environments: a dynamic upper fjord and a relatively static lower fjord. The accompanying maps represent the first publicly available high-resolution bathymetric surveys of Muir Inlet. The results of these analyses serve as a test of the CMECS and as a baseline for continued mapping and correlations among seafloor substrate, benthic habitats, and glaciomarine processes

Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics

It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test some of the predictions of ecological theory in a natural ecosystem of global conservation and economic val

A growth model of weight preferences, food consumption and public policy

Copyright @ 2013 Brunel University.In this paper we unify existing theories and empirical evidence on the origins of obesity and examine the e¤ects of scal policy on the dynamic evolution of weight. We build a dynamic general equilibrium growth model, with two sectors, one producing food and the other producing a composite consumption good. Weight is a function of rational choice as well as labor allocation between the two sectors. By estimating utility from weight and calibrating the US economy we show that (i) technological advances in agriculture decrease food prices and increase weight but not necessarily through higher food consumption but through lower calorie expenditure, (ii) reducing capital taxation, initially depresses weight levels through higher food prices; steady state food consumption decreases due to a price substitution e¤ect but weight soars due to lower calorie expenditure, (iii) reducing taxation on food increases food consumption and weight levels in equilibrium. Labor reallocation towards the less sedentary sector on one hand and higher income on the other function as contradictory forces

UK Business Investment: Long-Run Elasticities and Short-Run Dynamics

From neoclassical theory output, capital stock and the user cost are cointegrated; capital and investment also (multi)cointegrate through the capital accumulation identity. An investment equation is estimated on UK data using a new capital stock series and a long series for the weighted cost of capital. Assuming CES technology, the elasticity of substitution is well-determined and below unity. Over-identifying restrictions are accepted. The long-run parameter is robust to alternative specifications, but single-equation investment relationships may obscure the dynamics. The Johansen method is over-sized, but outperforms a single equation test for excluding the capital accumulation identity from the investment equation.investment, capital stock, identification, multicointegration