555,587 research outputs found
Rejoinder to comments on “reasoning with belief functions: An analysis of compatibility”
AbstractAn earlier position paper has examined the applicability of belief-functions methodology in three reasoning tasks: (1) representation of incomplete knowledge, (2) belief-updating, and (3) evidence pooling. My conclusions were that the use of belief functions encounters basic difficulties along all three tasks, and that extensive experimental and theoretical studies should be undertaken before belief functions could be applied safely. This article responds to the discussion, in this issue, of my conclusions and the degree to which they affect the applicability of belief functions in automated reasoning tasks
Assessing forensic evidence by computing belief functions
We first discuss certain problems with the classical probabilistic approach
for assessing forensic evidence, in particular its inability to distinguish
between lack of belief and disbelief, and its inability to model complete
ignorance within a given population. We then discuss Shafer belief functions, a
generalization of probability distributions, which can deal with both these
objections. We use a calculus of belief functions which does not use the much
criticized Dempster rule of combination, but only the very natural
Dempster-Shafer conditioning. We then apply this calculus to some classical
forensic problems like the various island problems and the problem of parental
identification. If we impose no prior knowledge apart from assuming that the
culprit or parent belongs to a given population (something which is possible in
our setting), then our answers differ from the classical ones when uniform or
other priors are imposed. We can actually retrieve the classical answers by
imposing the relevant priors, so our setup can and should be interpreted as a
generalization of the classical methodology, allowing more flexibility. We show
how our calculus can be used to develop an analogue of Bayes' rule, with belief
functions instead of classical probabilities. We also discuss consequences of
our theory for legal practice.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1512.01249. Accepted for
publication in Law, Probability and Ris
Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System
Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the
reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have
been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors,
given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty
(epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to
incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related
characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type
of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation,
analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to
identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in
the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and
possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two
uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief
functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A
demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes
distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is
shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the
imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy
values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with
higher DG penetration levels
Normal and abnormal development of visual functions in children
The human visual system goes through substantial changes during the first few months of postnatal life. The development of visual functions and structures occurs at different times and different rates. It has been a generally held belief that the development of visual functions and their critical period come to an end early in life. Most of the developmental data confirm this theory, although the findings sometimes are contradictory. Thus, our knowledge concerning visual development does not seem to be complete. The determination of exact timing of the different visual functions is relevant in children since a proved extended maturational timeframe can promote the trial of enhancement of visual abilities at a later age, up to puberty or beyond. There have already been suggestions for an extended developmental time span for some of the visual functions. Here we review the most relevant data with reference to the normal development of the eye, visual functions and visual pathways found in the literature and provide further evidence for the maturation and plasticity of visual functions after the age of 5 years
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