14,592 research outputs found
Structuring the decision process : an evaluation of methods in the structuring the decision process
This chapter examines the effectiveness of methods that are designed to provide structure and support to decision making. Those that are primarily aimed at individual decision makers are examined first and then attention is turned to groups. In each case weaknesses of unaided decision making are identified and how successful the application of formal methods is likely to be in mitigating these weaknesses is assessed
Qualitative Analysis of POMDPs with Temporal Logic Specifications for Robotics Applications
We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), that are
a standard framework for robotics applications to model uncertainties present
in the real world, with temporal logic specifications. All temporal logic
specifications in linear-time temporal logic (LTL) can be expressed as parity
objectives. We study the qualitative analysis problem for POMDPs with parity
objectives that asks whether there is a controller (policy) to ensure that the
objective holds with probability 1 (almost-surely). While the qualitative
analysis of POMDPs with parity objectives is undecidable, recent results show
that when restricted to finite-memory policies the problem is EXPTIME-complete.
While the problem is intractable in theory, we present a practical approach to
solve the qualitative analysis problem. We designed several heuristics to deal
with the exponential complexity, and have used our implementation on a number
of well-known POMDP examples for robotics applications. Our results provide the
first practical approach to solve the qualitative analysis of robot motion
planning with LTL properties in the presence of uncertainty
Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger “mega-catastrophes,” severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, we present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes—drastic abatement of greenhouse gas missions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation— against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. We discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.climate change, catastrophe, risk, decisionmaking under uncertainty
Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, we present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes--drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation--against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. We discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.
Post-Westgate SWAT : C4ISTAR Architectural Framework for Autonomous Network Integrated Multifaceted Warfighting Solutions Version 1.0 : A Peer-Reviewed Monograph
Police SWAT teams and Military Special Forces face mounting pressure and
challenges from adversaries that can only be resolved by way of ever more
sophisticated inputs into tactical operations. Lethal Autonomy provides
constrained military/security forces with a viable option, but only if
implementation has got proper empirically supported foundations. Autonomous
weapon systems can be designed and developed to conduct ground, air and naval
operations. This monograph offers some insights into the challenges of
developing legal, reliable and ethical forms of autonomous weapons, that
address the gap between Police or Law Enforcement and Military operations that
is growing exponentially small. National adversaries are today in many
instances hybrid threats, that manifest criminal and military traits, these
often require deployment of hybrid-capability autonomous weapons imbued with
the capability to taken on both Military and/or Security objectives. The
Westgate Terrorist Attack of 21st September 2013 in the Westlands suburb of
Nairobi, Kenya is a very clear manifestation of the hybrid combat scenario that
required military response and police investigations against a fighting cell of
the Somalia based globally networked Al Shabaab terrorist group.Comment: 52 pages, 6 Figures, over 40 references, reviewed by a reade
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