Intraday probability of informed trading

By extending Easley, Kiefer, O'Hara and Paperman's (1996) framework to an intraday model, I empirically estimate the intraday probability of informed trading (PIN) for the 30 stocks in DJIA index. I document a U-shaped PIN pattern over the time of a day, and the consequent test validates this finding.Probability of informed trading, Market microstructure

News, liquidity dynamics and intraday jumps: evidence from the HUF/EUR market

We study intraday jumps on a pure limit order FX market by linking them to news announcements and liquidity shocks. First, we show that jumps are frequent and contribute greatly to the return volatility. Nearly half of the jumps can be linked with scheduled and unscheduled news announcements. Furthermore, we show that jumps are information based, whether they are linked with news announcements or not. Prior to jumps, liquidity does not deviate from its normal level, nor do liquidity shocks offer any predictive power for jump occurrence. Jumps emerge not as a result of unusually low liquidity but rather as a result of an unusually high demand for immediacy concentrated on one side of the book. During and after the jump, a dynamic order placement process emerges: some participants endogenously become liquidity providers and absorb the increased demand for immediacy. We detect an interesting asymmetry and find the liquidity providers to be more reluctant to add liquidity when confronted with a news announcement around the jump. Further evidence shows that participants submit more limit orders relative to market orders after a jump. Consequently, the informational role of order flow becomes less pronounced in the thick order book after the jump

Hungarian sovereign credit risk premium in international comparison during the financial crisis

As the CDS market has been the primary market for the price discovery of Hungarian sovereign credit risk in recent years, we can gain the most reliable information about Hungarian sovereign credit risk premia by analysing the price of Hungarian CDS contracts, in other words, the CDS spread. Credit default swaps are contractual agreements between two parties, whereby one party assumes the credit risk associated with a bond held by another party by undertaking to pay the other party the nominal value of the bond in the case that the issuer of the bond defaults, in exchange for which it receives a series of periodic payments from the other party during the term of the contract. The turnover and outstanding amount of CDS contracts related to Hungarian sovereign foreign currency bonds exceed the secondary market turnover and outstanding stock of Hungarian foreign currency bonds. Last autumn, Hungary was hit particularly hard by the significant decline in risk appetite observed in relation to emerging markets, and in October 2008 both the level and the relative international position of the Hungarian sovereign credit risk spread deteriorated substantially. Raising the key policy rate in October 2008, combined with the IMF credit facility, contributed largely to stopping the profound loss of confidence in Hungarian investment opportunities. The substantial decline in Hungarian sovereign CDS spreads observed in March-May 2009 can be almost entirely attributed to improving global risk appetite.credit derivatives markets, credit default swap, sovereign foreign currency bond markets, sovereign credit risk, credit rating, price discovery.

Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure: The Case of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange

With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight into this issue by examining trading behavior at the Copenhagen Stock Exchange during a major blackout. We find that although market quality declined, markets remained functional and some price discovery occurred during the blackout period suggesting that the NOREX structure of interlinked trading systems combined with widely dispersed trading locations may be a viable means of protection against market failure during massive power disruptions or terrorist attacks.Power failure; Fragmented markets; Market failure;

The fishery for California market squid (Loligo opalescens) (Cephalopoda: Myopsida), from 1981 through 2003

The California market squid (Loligo opalescens) has been harvested since the 1860s and it has become the largest fishery in California in terms of tonnage and dollars since 1993. The fishery began in Monterey Bay and then shifted to southern California, where effort has increased steadily since 1983. The California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) collects information on landings of squid, including tonnage, location, and date of capture. We compared landings data gathered by CDFG with sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), the southern oscillation index (SOI), and their respective anomalies. We found that the squid fishery in Monterey Bay expends twice the effort of that in southern California. Squid landings decreased substantially following large El Niño events in 1982−83 and 1997−98, but not following the smaller El Niño events of 1987 and 1992. Spectral analysis revealed autocorrelation at annual and 4.5-year intervals (similar to the time period between El Niño cycles). But this analysis did not reveal any fortnightly or monthly spawning peaks, thus squid spawning did not correlate with tides. A paralarvae density index (PDI) for February correlated well with catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the following November recruitment of adults to the spawning grounds. This stock– recruitment analysis was significant for 2000−03 (CPUE=8.42+0.41PDI, adjusted coefficient of determination, r2=0.978, P=0.0074). Surveys of squid paralarvae explained 97.8% of the variance for catches of adult squid nine months later. The regression of CPUE on PDI could be used to manage the fishery. Catch limits for the fishery could be set on the basis of paralarvae abundance surveyed nine months earlier

Which news moves the euro area bond market?

This paper explores a long dataset (1999-2005) of intraday prices on German long-term bond futures and examines market responses to major macroeconomic announcements and ECB monetary policy releases. In general, adjustments in prices are quick and new information is usually incorporated into prices within five minutes of announcements. The volatility adjustment is more long-lasting than that in the conditional mean, and excess volatility can be observed up to 30 minutes after the releases. Overall, German bond markets tend to react more strongly to the surprise component in US macro releases compared to euro area and domestic releases, and the strength of those reactions to US releases has increased over the period considered. The paper also provides evidence that the outcome of German unemployment figures has been known to investors ahead of the prescheduled release. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E58intraday data, macroeconomic announcements, monetary policy