ENVIRONMENTALISM AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF TOURISM

As a consequence of the rapid growth of the tourism sector, special emphasis is placed on destinations and tourism products connected to or based on certain physical and environmental factors. However, the negative environmental consequences of tourism are, in many cases, overemphasised to the social and/or economic elements of sustainable development. Thus, it is important to find an adequate balance of the elements mentioned above within tourism development in order to achieve an optimal way of fulfilling all requirements of sustainable development. In order to this, a potential method is introduced by applying the Sustainability Value Map, developed originally for buildings and urban development projects, to the evaluation of sustainable tourism products. This method implies further questions arisen concerning the selection of the right set of indicators and the importance of local or regional issues. Using it as a tool, it may promote the process of holistic tourism planning and development.environmentalism, sustainable tourism, environmental impacts, sustainability value map

An Overview of Carbon Footprint Mitigation Strategies. Machine Learning for Societal Improvement, Modernization, and Progress

Among the most pressing issues in the world today is the impact of globalization and energy consumption on the environment. Despite the growing regulatory framework to prevent ecological degradation, sustainability continues to be a problem. Machine learning can help with the transition toward a net-zero carbon society. Substantial work has been done in this direction. Changing electrical systems, transportation, buildings, industry, and land use are all necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the carbon footprint aspect of sustainability, this chapter provides a detailed overview of how machine learning can be applied to forge a path to ecological sustainability in each of these areas. The chapter highlights how various machine learning algorithms are used to increase the use of renewable energy, efficient transportation, and waste management systems to reduce the carbon footprint. The authors summarize the findings from the current research literature and conclude by providing a few future directions

Scenarios of Urban Growth in Kenya Using Regionalised Cellular Automata based on Multi temporal Landsat Satellite Data

The exponential increase of urban areas in Africa during the last decade has become a major concern in the context of local climatic change and the increasing amount of impervious surface. Major African cities such as Nairobi and Nakuru have undergone rapid urban growth in comparison to the rest of the world. In this research we investigated the land-use changes and used the results in urban growth modelling which integrates cellular automata (CA), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) in order to simulate urban growth up to the year 2030. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for the years 1986, 2000 and 2010 to map urban land-use changes in Nairobi and Nakuru. The use of multi-sensor imageries was also explored incorporating World view 2, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data for urban land-use mapping in Nakuru. We conducted supervised classification using support vector machine (SVM) which performed better than maximum likelihood classification. Land-use change estimates were obtained indicating increased urban growth into the year 2010. We used the land-use change analysis information to model urban growth in Nairobi and Nakuru. Our urban growth model (UGM) utilised various datasets in modelling urban growth namely urban land-use extracted from land-use maps, road network data, slope data and exclusion layer defining areas excluded from development. The Monte-Carlo technique was used in model calibration. The model was validated using Multiple Resolution Validation (MRV) technique. Prediction of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Furthermore, we explored the spatial effects of varying UGM parameters using the city of Nairobi. The objective here was to investigate the contribution of each model parameter in simulating urban growth. The results obtained indicate that varying model coefficients leads to urban growth in different directions and magnitude. However, several model parameters were observed to be highly correlated namely; spread, breed and road. The lowest spatial effect was achieved by at least maintaining spread, breed and road while varying the other parameters. The highest spatial effect was observed by at least keeping slope constant while varying the other four parameters. Additionally, we used kappa statistics to compare the simulation maps. High values of Khisto indicated high similarity between the maps in terms of quantity and location thus indicating the lowest spatial effect obtained. Kenya plans to achieve Vision 2030 in the year 2030 and information on spatial effects of our UGM can help in identifying different scenarios of future urban growth. It is thus possible to discover areas that are likely to experience; spontaneous growth, edge growth, road influenced growth or new spreading centres growth. Policy makers can see the influence of establishing new infrastructure such as housing and road in new areas compared to existing settlements. Moreover, the outcome of this research indicates that Nairobi and Nakuru are experiencing fast urban sprawl with urban land-use consuming the available land. The results obtained illustrate the possibility of urban growth modelling in addressing regional planning issues. This can help in comprehensive land-use planning and an integrated management of resources to ensure sustainability of land and to achieve social equity, economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. Hence, cellular automata are a worthwhile approach for regional modelling of African cities such as Nairobi and Nakuru. This provides opportunities for other cities in Africa to be studied using UGM and its adaptability noted accordingly.Das exponentielle Wachstum afrikanischer Städte im letzten Jahrzehnt ist mit Blick auf die lokalen klimatischen Veränderungen und der zunehmenden Menge an versiegelten Oberflächen von besonderer Tragweite. Im Vergleich zu anderen Metropolen erfuhren afrikanische Städte wie Nairobi und Nakuru ein extensives Wachstum der urbanen Flächen. Die vorliegende Arbeit setzt sich mit dem urbanen Landnutzungswandel auseinander und modelliert die Siedlungsflächenausdehnung für das Jahr 2030 mit Hilfe eines Zellulären Automaten (CA), Fernerkundungsdaten (RS) sowie Geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS). Zur Kartierung der Siedlungsflächenausdehnung von Nairobi und Nakuru wurden multitemporale Landsat-Daten der Jahre 1986, 2000 und 2010 verwendet. Zusätzlich wurden multisensorale Daten von World View 2 und ALOS PALSAR für Nakuru eingesetzt. Die Landnutzungsklassifikation erfolgte mit support vector machines (SVM). Dieses Verfahren zeigte bessere Ergebnisse als eine Maximum-Likelihood-Klassifikation. Auf Basis der klassifizierten Satellitendaten erfolgte die Landnutzungsmodellierung für Nairobi und Nakuru. Hierzu wurde die von Goetzke (2011) modifizierte Version von Clarke’s Urban Growth Model (Clarke, Hoppen, & Gaydos, 1997) benutzt. Neben den Landnutzungskarten fungieren Informationen zum Verkehrsnetz, zur Hangneigung und zu Ausschlussflächen als Hauptinputdaten. Die Kalibration erfolgte mit Hilfe von Monte Carlo Iterationen. Zur Validation des Modells wurde eine Multiple Resolution Validation (MRV) durchgeführt. Die Siedlungsflächenausdehnung wurde für das Jahr 2030 simuliert. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt plant das Land Kenia die Umsetzung des Vision 2030 Programmes. Es wurden insgesamt drei Szenarien mit dem Wachstumsmodell gerechnet: (1) Wachstum ohne Planungszwänge, so dass auch Siedlungsflächen in Naturschutzgebieten entstehen dürfen. (2) Siedlungsflächenausdehnung unter moderaten Planungsbedingungen. (3) Wachstum mit sehr restriktiven Planungsbedingungen, unter Einschluss des Schutzes von Wald-, Grün- und- Agrarflächen. Des Weiteren wurde eine Sensitivitätsanalyse der modelleigenen Wachstumsparameter am Beispiel von Nairobi durchgeführt. Es konnte gezeigt werden, welchen Einfluss die Parameter auf die Intensität und das Muster der modellierten Siedlungsflächenausdehnung ausüben. Dabei zeigten die Wachstumskoeffizienten „spread“, „breed“ und „road“ eine signifikante Korrelation. Zur weiteren Analyse der erzielten Modellierungsergebnisse und zum Vergleich der räumlichen Muster wurden Kappa-Statistiken herangezogen. Die Arbeit sieht sich als Beitrag zum Vision 2030 Diskurs der kenianischen Regierung. Die simulierten Szenarien der Siedlungsflächenausdehnung von Nairobi und Nakuru identifizieren die für eine Urbanisierung wahrscheinlich in Frage kommenden Regionen. Die Studie zeigt zudem, dass sich die Siedlungsflächenausdehnung von Nairobi und Nakuru schnell und mit hohen Wachstumsraten vollzieht. Der Einsatz von CA Modellen ist ein wertvoller Ansatz zur regionalen Modellierung nicht nur von kenianischen sondern auch von afrikanischen Städten. Die Arbeit kann somit Entscheidungsträger aus Politik und Verwaltung unterstützen, indem sie die räumlichen Auswirkungen des zukünftigen Ausbaus der Infrastruktur und von Wohnflächen aufzeigt. Eine umfassende Planung von Landnutzungswandel und ein integriertes Management sind essentiell auf dem Weg zu einem bewussteren Umgang mit der Ressource Land sowie zu einer sozialen Gleichheit, wirtschaftlichen Effizienz und einer ökologischen Nachhaltigkeit

On Cells and Agents : Geosimulation of Urban Sprawl in Western Germany by Integrating Spatial and Non-Spatial Dynamics

Urban sprawl is one of the most challenging land-use and land-cover changes in Germany implicating numerous consequences for the anthropogenic and geobiophysical spheres. While the population and job growth rates of most urban areas stagnate or even decrease, the morphological growth of cities is ubiquitous. Against this backdrop, the quantitative and qualitative modeling of urban dynamics proves to be of central importance. Geosimulation models like cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) treat cities as complex urban systems. While CA focus on their spatial dynamics, MAS are well-suited for capturing autonomous individual decision making. Yet both models are complementary in terms of their focus, status change, mobility, and representations. Hence, the coupling of CA and MAS is a useful way of integrating spatial pattern and non-spatial processes into one modeling infrastructure. The thesis at hand aims at a holistic geosimulation of the future urban sprawl in the Ruhr. This region is particularly challenging as it is characterized by two seemingly antagonistic processes: urban growth and urban shrinkage. Accordingly, a hybrid modeling approach is to be developed as a means of integrating the simulation power of CA and MAS. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) will function as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. In order to enhance the simulation performance of the CA and to incorporate important driving forces of urban sprawl, SLEUTH is for the first time combined with support vector machines (SVM). The supported CA will be coupled with ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). This MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions. All dynamics are based on multiple interactions between different household groups as well as stakeholders of the housing market. Moreover, this thesis will elaborate on the most important driving factors, rates, and most probable locations of urban sprawl in the Ruhr as well as on the future migration tendencies of different household types and the price development in the housing market of a polycentric shrinking region. The results of SLEUTH and ReHoSh are loosely coupled for a spatial analysis in which the municipal differences that have emerged during the simulations are disaggregated. Subsequently, a concept is developed in order to integrate the CA and the MAS into one geosimulation approach. The thesis introduces semi-explicit urban weights as a possibility of assessing settlement-pattern dynamics and the regional housing market dynamics at the same time. The model combination of SLEUTH-SVM and ReHoSh is finally calibrated, validated, and implemented for simulating three different scenarios of individual housing preferences and their effects on the future urban pattern in the Ruhr. Applied to a digital petri dish, the generic urban growth elements of the Ruhr are being detected

RESEARCH ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION DETECTION FROM CAMERA IMAGES IN A LOCATION OF DA LAT

Many researchers are interested in traffic congestion detection and prediction. Traffic congestion occurs increasingly in many cities in Vietnam, including the city of Da Lat. This paper focuses on SVM, CNN, DenseNet, VGG, and ResNet models to detect traffic congestion from camera images collected at Nga 5 Dai Hoc, Da Lat. These images are labeled with the words traffic congestion or no traffic congestion. The experimental results have an accuracy of over 93%. The study is an initial contribution to a future system for predicting traffic congestion in Da Lat when the camera system is fully installed

Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Assessment for Sustainable Management

This Special Issue explores the cross-disciplinary approaches, methodologies, and applications of socio-environmental vulnerability assessment that can be incorporated into sustainable management. The volume comprises 20 different points of view, which cover environmental protection and development, urban planning, geography, public policymaking, participation processes, and other cross-disciplinary fields. The articles collected in this volume come from all over the world and present the current state of the world’s environmental and social systems at a local, regional, and national level. New approaches and analytical tools for the assessment of environmental and social systems are studied. The practical implementation of sustainable development as well as progressive environmental and development policymaking are discussed. Finally, the authors deliberate about the perspectives of social–environmental systems in a rapidly changing world

Air quality and urban sustainable development: the application of machine learning tools

[EN] Air quality has an efect on a population¿s quality of life. As a dimension of sustainable urban development, governments have been concerned about this indicator. This is refected in the references consulted that have demonstrated progress in forecasting pollution events to issue early warnings using conventional tools which, as a result of the new era of big data, are becoming obsolete. There are a limited number of studies with applications of machine learning tools to characterize and forecast behavior of the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainable development as they pertain to air quality. This article presents an analysis of studies that developed machine learning models to forecast sustainable development and air quality. Additionally, this paper sets out to present research that studied the relationship between air quality and urban sustainable development to identify the reliability and possible applications in diferent urban contexts of these machine learning tools. To that end, a systematic review was carried out, revealing that machine learning tools have been primarily used for clustering and classifying variables and indicators according to the problem analyzed, while tools such as artifcial neural networks and support vector machines are the most widely used to predict diferent types of events. The nonlinear nature and synergy of the dimensions of sustainable development are of great interest for the application of machine learning tools.Molina-Gómez, NI.; Díaz-Arévalo, JL.; López Jiménez, PA. (2021). Air quality and urban sustainable development: the application of machine learning tools. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 18(4):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02896-6S118184Al-Dabbous A, Kumar P, Khan A (2017) Prediction of airborne nanoparticles at roadside location using a feed–forward artificial neural network. Atmos Pollut Res 8:446–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2016.11.004Antanasijević D, Pocajt V, Povrenović D, Ristić M, Perić-Grujić A (2013) PM10 emission forecasting using artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm input variable optimization. Sci Total Environ 443:511–519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.10.110Brink H, Richards JW, Fetherolf M (2016) Real-world machine learning. Richards JW, Fetherolf M (eds) Manning Publications Co. Berkeley, CA. https://www.manning.com/books/real-world-machine-learning. Accessed 26 Apr 2020Cervone G, Franzese P, Ezber Y, Boybeyi Z (2008) Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning. Nat Hazard Earth Syst 8:991–1000. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-991-2008Chen S, Kan G, Li J, Liang K, Hong Y (2018) Investigating China’s urban air quality using big data, information theory, and machine learning. Pol J Environ Stud 27:565–578. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/75159Corani (2005) Air quality prediction in Milan: feed-forward neural networks, pruned neural networks and lazy learning. Ecol Model 185:513–529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.008Cruz C, Gómez A, Ramírez L, Villalva A, Monge O, Varela J, Quiroz J, Duarte H (2017) Calidad del aire respecto de metales (Pb, Cd, Ni, Cu, Cr) y relación con salud respiratoria: caso Sonora, México. Rev Int Contam Ambient 33:23–34. https://doi.org/10.20937/RICA.2017.33.esp02.02de Hoogh K, Héritier H, Stafoggia M, Künzli N, Kloog I (2018) Modelling daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolution across Switzerland. Environ Pollut 233:1147–1154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.025Franceschi F, Cobo M, Figueredo M (2018) Discovering relationships and forecasting PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Bogotá, Colombia, using Artificial Neural Networks, Principal Component Analysis, and k-means clustering. Atmos Pollut Res 9:912–922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2018.02.006García N, Combarro E, del Coz J, Montañes E (2013) A SVM-based regression model to study the air quality at local scale in Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain): a case study. Appl Math Comput 219:8923–8937. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2013.03.018Gibert K, Sànchez-Màrre M, Sevilla B (2012) Tools for environmental data mining and intelligent decision support. In iEMSs. Leipzig, Germany. http://www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss-2012-proceedings. Accessed 26 Nov 2018Gibert K, Sànchez-Marrè M, Izquierdo J (2016) A survey on pre-processing techniques: relevant issues in the context of environmental data mining. Ai Commun 29:627–663. https://doi.org/10.3233/AIC-160710Gounaridis D, Chorianopoulos I, Koukoulas S (2018) Exploring prospective urban growth trends under different economic outlooks and land-use planning scenarios: the case of Athens. Appl Geogr 90:134–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.001Holloway J, Mengersen K (2018) Statistical machine learning methods and remote sensing for sustainable development goals: a review. Remote Sens 10:1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091365Ifaei P, Karbassi A, Lee S, Yoo Ch (2017) A renewable energies-assisted sustainable development plan for Iran using techno-econo-socio-environmental multivariate analysis and big data. Energy Convers Manag 153:257–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2017.10.014Kadiyala A, Kumar A (2017a) Applications of R to evaluate environmental data science problems. Environ Prog Sustain 36:1358–1364. https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12676Kadiyala A, Kumar A (2017b) Vector time series-based radial basis function neural network modeling of air quality inside a public transportation bus using available software. Environ Prog Sustain 36:4–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.12523Karimian H, Li Q, Wu Ch, Qi Y, Mo Y, Chen G, Zhang X, Sachdeva S (2019) Evaluation of different machine learning approaches to forecasting PM2.5 mass concentrations. Aerosol Air Qual Res 19:1400–1410. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2018.12.0450Krzyzanowski M, Apte J, Bonjour S, Brauer M, Cohen A, Prüss-Ustun A (2014) Air pollution in the mega-cities. Curr Environ Health Rep 1:185–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-014-0019-7Lässig K, Morik (2016) Computat sustainability. Springer, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31858-5Li Y, Wu Y-X, Zeng Z-X, Guo L (2006) Research on forecast model for sustainable development of economy-environment system based on PCA and SVM. In: Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on machine learning and cybernetics, vol 2006. IEEE, Dalian, China, pp 3590–3593. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMLC.2006.258576Liu B-Ch, Binaykia A, Chang P-Ch, Tiwari M, Tsao Ch-Ch (2017) Urban air quality forecasting based on multi- dimensional collaborative support vector regression (SVR): a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Shijiazhuang. PLoS ONE 12:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179763Lubell M, Feiock R, Handy S (2009) City adoption of environmentally sustainable policies in California’s Central Valley. J Am Plan Assoc 75:293–308. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360902952295Ma D, Zhang Z (2016) Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere. J Hazard Mater 311:237–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2016.03.022Madu C, Kuei N, Lee P (2017) Urban sustainability management: a deep learning perspective. Sustain Cities Soc 30:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.12.012Mellos K (1988) Theory of eco-development. In: Perspectives on ecology. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19598-5_4Ni XY, Huang H, Du WP (2017) Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data. Atmos Environ 150:146–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.054Oprea M, Dragomir E, Popescu M, Mihalache S (2016) Particulate matter air pollutants forecasting using inductive learning approach. Rev Chim 67:2075–2081Paas B, Stienen J, Vorländer M, Schneider Ch (2017) Modelling of urban near-road atmospheric PM concentrations using an artificial neural network approach with acoustic data input. Environments 4:1–25. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments4020026Pandey G, Zhang B, Jian L (2013) Predicting submicron air pollution indicators: a machine learning approach. Environ Sci Proc Impacts 15:996–1005. https://doi.org/10.1039/c3em30890aPeng H, Lima A, Teakles A, Jin J, Cannon A, Hsieh W (2017) Evaluating hourly air quality forecasting in Canada with nonlinear updatable machine learning methods. Air Qual Atmos Health 10:195–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-016-0414-3Pérez-Ortíz M, de La Paz-Marín M, Gutiérrez PA, Hervás-Martínez C (2014) Classification of EU countries’ progress towards sustainable development based on ordinal regression techniques. Knowl Based Syst 66:178–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2014.04.041Phillis Y, Kouikoglou V, Verdugo C (2017) Urban sustainability assessment and ranking of cities. Comput Environ Urban 64:254–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.03.002Saeed S, Hussain L, Awan I, Idris A (2017) Comparative analysis of different statistical methods for prediction of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in advance for several hours. Int J Comput Sci Netw Secur 17:45–52Sayegh A, Munir S, Habeebullah T (2014) Comparing the performance of statistical models for predicting PM10 concentrations. Aerosol Air Qual Res 14:653–665. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2013.07.0259Shaban K, Kadri A, Rezk E (2016) Urban air pollution monitoring system with forecasting models. IEEE Sens J 16:2598–2606. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSEN.2016.2514378Sierra B (2006) Aprendizaje automático conceptos básicos y avanzados Aspectos prácticos utilizando el software Weka. Madrid Pearson Prentice Hall, MadridSingh K, Gupta S, Rai P (2013) Identifying pollution sources and predicting urban air quality using ensemble learning methods. Atmos Environ 80:426–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.08.023Song L, Pang S, Longley I, Olivares G, Sarrafzadeh A (2014) Spatio-temporal PM2.5 prediction by spatial data aided incremental support vector regression. In: International joint conference on neural networks. IEEE, Beijing, pp 623–630. https://doi.org/10.1109/IJCNN.2014.6889521Souza R, Coelho G, da Silva A, Pozza S (2015) Using ensembles of artificial neural networks to improve PM10 forecasts. Chem Eng Trans 43:2161–2166. https://doi.org/10.3303/CET1543361Suárez A, García PJ, Riesgo P, del Coz JJ, Iglesias-Rodríguez FJ (2011) Application of an SVM-based regression model to the air quality study at local scale in the Avilés urban area (Spain). Math Comput Model 54:453–1466. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.04.017Tamas W, Notton G, Paoli C, Nivet M, Voyant C (2016) Hybridization of air quality forecasting models using machine learning and clustering: an original approach to detect pollutant peaks. Aerosol Air Qual Res 16:405–416. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2015.03.0193Toumi O, Le Gallo J, Ben Rejeb J (2017) Assessment of Latin American sustainability. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 78:878–885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.013Tzima F, Mitkas P, Voukantsis D, Karatzas K (2011) Sparse episode identification in environmental datasets: the case of air quality assessment. Expert Syst Appl 38:5019–5027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.09.148United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2019) World urbanization prospects The 2018 Revision. New York. https://doi.org/10.18356/b9e995fe-enWang B (2019) Applying machine-learning methods based on causality analysis to determine air quality in China. Pol J Environ Stud 28:3877–3885. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/99639Wang X, Xiao Z (2017) Regional eco-efficiency prediction with support vector spatial dynamic MIDAS. J Clean Prod 161:165–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.05.077Wang W, Men C, Lu W (2008) Online prediction model based on support vector machine. Neurocomputing 71:550–558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2007.07.020WCED (1987) Report of the world commission on environment and development: our common future: report of the world commission on environment and development. WCED, Oslo. https://doi.org/10.1080/07488008808408783Weizhen H, Zhengqiang L, Yuhuan Z, Hua X, Ying Z, Kaitao L, Donghui L, Peng W, Yan M (2014) Using support vector regression to predict PM10 and PM2.5. In: IOP conference series: earth and environmental science, vol 17. IOP. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012268WHO (2016) OMS | La OMS publica estimaciones nacionales sobre la exposición a la contaminación del aire y sus repercusiones para la salud. WHO. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2016/air-pollution-estimates/es/. Accesed 26 Nov 2018Yeganeh N, Shafie MP, Rashidi Y, Kamalan H (2012) Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid partial least square and support vector machine model. Atmos Environ 55:357–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.02.092Zalakeviciute R, Bastidas M, Buenaño A, Rybarczyk Y (2020) A traffic-based method to predict and map urban air quality. Appl Sci. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10062035Zeng L, Guo J, Wang B, Lv J, Wang Q (2019) Analyzing sustainability of Chinese coal cities using a decision tree modeling approach. Resour Policy 64:101501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101501Zhan Y, Luo Y, Deng X, Grieneisen M, Zhang M, Di B (2018) Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment. Environ Pollut 233:464–473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.029Zhang Y, Huan Q (2006) Research on the evaluation of sustainable development in Cangzhou city based on neural-network-AHP. In: Proceedings of the fifth international conference on machine learning and cybernetics, vol 2006. pp 3144–3147. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMLC.2006.258407Zhang Y, Shang W, Wu Y (2009) Research on sustainable development based on neural network. In: 2009 Chinese control and decision conference. IEEE, pp 3273–3276. https://doi.org/10.1109/CCDC.2009.5192476Zhou Y, Chang F-J, Chang L-Ch, Kao I-F, Wang YS (2019) Explore a deep learning multi-output neural network for regional multi-step-ahead air quality forecasts. J Clean Prod 209:134–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.24

Enhancing community resilience in arid regions: A smart framework for flash flood risk assessment

This paper presents a novel framework for smart integrated risk management in arid regions. The framework combines flash flood modelling, statistical methods, artificial intelligence (AI), geographic evaluations, risk analysis, and decision-making modules to enhance community resilience. Flash flood is simulated by using Watershed Modelling System (WMS). Statistical methods are also used to trim outlier data from physical systems and climatic data. Furthermore, three AI methods, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Nearest Neighbours Classification (NNC), are used to predict and classify flash flood occurrences. Geographic Information System (GIS) is also utilised to assess potential risks in vulnerable regions, together with Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) methods. The decision-making module employs the Classic Delphi technique to classify the appropriate solutions for flood risk control. The methodology is demonstrated by its application to the real case study of the Khosf region in Iran, which suffers from both drought and severe floods simultaneously, exacerbated by recent climate changes. The results show high Coefficient of determination (R2) scores for the three AI methods, with SVM at 0.88, ANN at 0.79, and NNC at 0.89. FMEA results indicate that over 50% of scenarios are at high flood risk, while HAZOP indicates 30% of scenarios with the same risk rate. Additionally, peak flows of over 24 m3/s are considered flood occurrences that can cause financial damage in all scenarios and risk techniques of the case study. Finally, our research findings indicate a practical decision support system that is compatible with sustainable development concepts and can enhance community resilience in arid regions

SPATIAL ANALYSES AND REMOTE SENSING FOR LAND COVER CHANGE DYNAMICS: ASSESSING IN A SPATIAL PLANNING

ABSTRACT (EN) Spatial planning is a crucial discipline for the identification and implementation of sustainable development strategies that take into account the environmental impacts on the soil. In recent years, the significant development of technology, like remote sensing and GIS software, has significantly increased the understanding of environmental components, highlighting their peculiarities and criticalities. Geographically referenced information on environmental and socio-economic components represents a fundamental database for identifying and monitoring vulnerable areas, also distinguishing different levels of vulnerability. This is even more relevant considering the increasingly significant impact of land transformation processes, consisting of rapid and frequent changes in land use patterns. In order to achieve some of the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda, the role of environmental planning is crucial in addressing spatial problems, such as agricultural land abandonment and land take, which cause negative impacts on ecosystems. Remote sensing, and in general all Earth Observation techniques, play a key role in achieving SDG 11.3 and 15.3 of Agenda 2030. Through a series of applications and investigations in different areas of Basilicata, it has been demonstrated how the extensive use of remote sensing and spatial analysis in a GIS environment provide a substantial contribution to the results of the SDGs, enabling an informed decisionmaking process and enabling monitoring of the results expected, ensuring data reliability and directly contributing to the calculation of SDG objectives and indicators by facilitating local administrations approaches to work in different development and sustainability sectors. In this thesis have been analyse the dynamics of land transformation in terms of land take and soil erosion in sample areas of the Basilicata Region, which represents an interesting case example for the study of land use land cover change (LULCC). The socio-demographic evolutionary trends and the study of marginality and territorial fragility are fundamental aspects in the context of territorial planning, since they are important drivers of the LULCC and territorial transformation processes. In fact, in Basilicata, settlement dynamics over the years have occurred in an uncontrolled and unregulated manner, leading to a constant consumption of land not accompanied by adequate demographic and economic growth. To better understand the evolution and dynamics of the LULCCs and provide useful tools for formulating territorial planning policies and strategies aimed at a sustainable use of the territory, the socio-economic aspects of the Region were investigated. A first phase involved the creation of a database and the study and identification of essential services in the area as a fundamental parameter against which to evaluate the quality of life in a specific area. The supply of essential services can be understood as an assessment of the lack of minimum requirements with reference to the urban functions exercised by each territorial unit. From a territorial point of view, the level of peripherality of the territories with respect to the network of urban centres profoundly influences the quality of life of citizens and the level of social inclusion. In these, the presence of essential services can act as an attractor capable of generating discrete catchment areas. The purpose of this first part of the work was above all to create a dataset of data useful for the calculation of various socio-economic indicators, in order to frame the demographic evolution and the evolution of the stock of public and private services. The first methodological approach was to reconstruct the offer of essential services through the use of open data in a GIS environment and subsequently estimate the peripherality of each municipality by estimating the accessibility to essential services. The study envisaged the use of territorial analysis techniques aimed at describing the distribution of essential services on the regional territory. It is essential to understand the role of demographic dynamics as a driver of urban land use change such as, for example, the increase in demand for artificial surfaces that occurs locally. Social and economic analyses are important in the spatial planning process. Comparison of socio-economic analyses with land use and land cover change can highlight the need to modify existing policies or implement new ones. A particular land use can degrade and thereby destroy other land resources. If the economic analysis shows that the use is beneficial from the point of view of the land user, it is likely to continue, regardless of whether the process is environmentally friendly. It is important to understand and investigate which drivers have been and will be in the future the most decisive in these dynamics that intrinsically contribute to land take, agricultural abandonment and the consequent processes of land degradation and to define policies or thresholds to mitigate and monitor the effects of these processes. Subsequently, the issues of land take and abandonment of agricultural land were analysed by applying models and techniques of remote sensing, GIS and territorial analysis for the identification and monitoring of abandoned agricultural areas and sealed areas. The classic remote sensing methods have also been integrated by some geostatistical analyses which have provided more information on the investigated phenomenon. The aim was the creation of a quick methodology that would allow to describe the monitoring and analysis activities of the development trends of soil consumption and the monitoring and identification of degraded areas. The first methodology proposed allowed the automatic and rapid detection of detailed LULCC and Land Take maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%, reducing costs and processing times. The identification of abandoned agricultural areas in degradation is among the most complicated LULCC and Land Degradation processes to identify and monitor as it is driven by a multiplicity of anthropic and natural factors. The model used to estimate soil erosion as a degradation phenomenon is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To identify potentially degraded areas, two factors of the RUSLE have been correlated: Factor C which describes the vegetation cover of the soil and Factor A which represents the amount of potential soil erosion. Through statistical correlation analysis with the RUSLE factors, on the basis of the deviations from the average RUSLE values and mapping of the areas of vegetation degradation, relating to arable land, through statistical correlation with the vegetation factor C, the areas were identified and mapped that are susceptible to soil degradation. The results obtained allowed the creation of a database and a map of the degraded areas to be paid attention to

Assessing developmental footprint within an agricultural system using multi-temporal remotely sensed data.

M. Sc. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 2014.The advent of the new political dispensation in South Africa has seen an exponential growth in the rate of land transformation and encroachment by other land uses into agricultural land in the uMngeni Local Municipality. Accurate evaluation of the rate of transformation is necessary for effective monitoring and management of the natural agricultural resources. In this regard, the use of multi-temporal remote sensing data provides efficient and cost-effective method. The current research assesses the extent to which the development footprint in uMngeni Local Municipality has affected agricultural land categories or zones, using multi-temporal remote sensing data. The study endeavoured to map and quantify the magnitude of change in built-up land cover and other infrastructure by focusing on two time intervals: the periods from 1993 – 2003 and 2003 – 2013. Medium spatial resolution Landsat image data acquired for these periods were analysed to classify and extract the built-up features to appraise the level of change. Results revealed positive change in built-up infrastructure: ~13% increase between 1993 and 2003, ~38% increase from 2003 – 2013, with overall ~32% for the 20 years (1993 – 2013) period under consideration. Next, factors possibly contributing to the encroachment of other land uses into the agricultural landscape and the potential threats to the sustainability of the agricultural system are highlighted