Predicting customer's gender and age depending on mobile phone data

In the age of data driven solution, the customer demographic attributes, such as gender and age, play a core role that may enable companies to enhance the offers of their services and target the right customer in the right time and place. In the marketing campaign, the companies want to target the real user of the GSM (global system for mobile communications), not the line owner. Where sometimes they may not be the same. This work proposes a method that predicts users' gender and age based on their behavior, services and contract information. We used call detail records (CDRs), customer relationship management (CRM) and billing information as a data source to analyze telecom customer behavior, and applied different types of machine learning algorithms to provide marketing campaigns with more accurate information about customer demographic attributes. This model is built using reliable data set of 18,000 users provided by SyriaTel Telecom Company, for training and testing. The model applied by using big data technology and achieved 85.6% accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and 65.5% of user age prediction. The main contribution of this work is the improvement in the accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and user age prediction based on mobile phone data and end-to-end solution that approaches customer data from multiple aspects in the telecom domain

Cost-sensitive Learning for Utility Optimization in Online Advertising Auctions

One of the most challenging problems in computational advertising is the prediction of click-through and conversion rates for bidding in online advertising auctions. An unaddressed problem in previous approaches is the existence of highly non-uniform misprediction costs. While for model evaluation these costs have been taken into account through recently proposed business-aware offline metrics -- such as the Utility metric which measures the impact on advertiser profit -- this is not the case when training the models themselves. In this paper, to bridge the gap, we formally analyze the relationship between optimizing the Utility metric and the log loss, which is considered as one of the state-of-the-art approaches in conversion modeling. Our analysis motivates the idea of weighting the log loss with the business value of the predicted outcome. We present and analyze a new cost weighting scheme and show that significant gains in offline and online performance can be achieved.Comment: First version of the paper was presented at NIPS 2015 Workshop on E-Commerce: https://sites.google.com/site/nips15ecommerce/papers Third version of the paper will be presented at AdKDD 2017 Workshop: adkdd17.wixsite.com/adkddtargetad201

Affinity Paths and Information Diffusion in Social Networks

Widespread interest in the diffusion of information through social networks has produced a large number of Social Dynamics models. A majority of them use theoretical hypothesis to explain their diffusion mechanisms while the few empirically based ones average out their measures over many messages of different content. Our empirical research tracking the step-by-step email propagation of an invariable viral marketing message delves into the content impact and has discovered new and striking features. The topology and dynamics of the propagation cascades display patterns not inherited from the email networks carrying the message. Their disconnected, low transitivity, tree-like cascades present positive correlation between their nodes probability to forward the message and the average number of neighbors they target and show increased participants' involvement as the propagation paths length grows. Such patterns not described before, nor replicated by any of the existing models of information diffusion, can be explained if participants make their pass-along decisions based uniquely on local knowledge of their network neighbors affinity with the message content. We prove the plausibility of such mechanism through a stylized, agent-based model that replicates the \emph{Affinity Paths} observed in real information diffusion cascades.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure