Polynomial trends of vegetation phenology in Sahelian to equatorial Africa using remotely sensed time series from 1983 to 2005

Popular science Our understanding of global warming can be achieved in different ways. One way is to study the phenological parameters of vegetation. Phenology or seasonality of vegetation can be identified from several parameters such as: the start of the growing season (SOS), end of the growing season (EOS), amplitude of the season (AMP), and length of the growing season (LOS). Changes of these parameters represent the cyclic changes of vegetation. Nowadays, imagery satellite data are reliable and widely-used sources to study the vegetation changes. Phenology parameters are derived from time series of vegetation indices (VI) that can be computed from satellite imagery. In this thesis, long-term dataset of GIMMS NDVI from 1983 to 2005 was used to extract and analyze vegetation phenology over Sahelian to equatorial areas. The TIMESAT software package was also used as an automated method to extract the parameters. Recent researches have shown the changes via analyzing the linear trends of the vegetation indices or lately through studying the linear trend of phenological parameters. Since changes of vegetation are not always simply linear, the overall aim of this thesis was to study vegetation changes through analysis of non-linear trends and more complex mathematical functions of phenology parameters, and via finding the relationship between the phenology parameters and soil moisture. Driving forces behind changes in phenology parameters including land cover, soil texture and rainfall were also taken in to consideration. The results illustrated that non-linear trends can detect notable proportions of vegetation changes in the study area. Not only significant portions of areas with linear trends could be represented using non-linear trends, but also these trends increased the precision of phenology change detection. Regarding the climate driver forces results showed that the vegetation phenology changes followed soil moisture variations. However the trends of vegetation changes has not especially followed land cover, soil texture and geographic characteristics although in some limited cases these driver forces are related to the changes.Global warming has both short and long term effects on seasonal phenological cycles of vegetation. Phenology parameters of vegetation such as start, end, length and amplitude of season can describe life cycle events of vegetation. In this thesis, long-term dataset of GIMMS NDVI time series from 1983 to 2005 was used to extract and analyze vegetation phenology over Sahelian to equatorial areas and TIMESAT software package was used as an automated method to extract the parameters. The overall aim of this thesis was to study vegetation changes through analysis of polynomial trends of phenology parameters. Phenology parameters were analyzed to detect hidden changes in vegetation dynamics. Through comparing polynomial trends of vegetation parameters and soil moisture, the relationship between the phenology parameters and soil moisture was detected and the role of climate driver forces (including land cover, soil texture and rainfall) behind the changes in phenology parameters were investigated. The results illustrated that polynomial trends can detect notable proportions of vegetation changes in the Sahel using remotely sensed data. Significant portions of areas with linear trends could be represented through quadratic and cubic trends, and these trends increased the precision of phenology change detection. Furthermore, in some areas vegetation changes were not detected neither through linear regressions nor polynomial trends. In such areas, polynomial hidden trends could be applied for detecting the fluctuations of vegetation parameters. In summation, applying polynomial trend analysis to time-series of satellite data is a powerful tool for investigating trends and variations in vegetation in semi-arid to sub-humid regions, like the Sahel. Regarding the climate driver forces, results showed that the vegetation phenology changes followed soil moisture variations, and in most occurrences, moderate correlations were found between SOS, EOS, and soil moisture. The trends of vegetation changes did not spatially follow land cover and soil types of the study area. However, in some limited cases, land cover, soil texture and geographic characteristics such as elevation were related to the changes

Modelling, Monitoring and Validation of Plant Phenology Products

Phänologie, die Lehre der periodisch wiederkehrenden Entwicklungserscheinungen in der Natur, hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten zu einem wichtigen Teilgebiet der Klimaforschung entwickelt. Einer der Haupteffekte der globalen Erwärmung ist die Veränderung der Wachstumsmuster und Fortpflanzungsgewohnheiten von Pflanzen, und somit veränderte Phänologie. Um die Auswirkungen der Klimaveränderung auf wildwachsende sowie Kulturpflanzen vorherzusagen, werden phänologische Modelle angewendet, verbessert und validiert. Dabei ist Wissen über den aktuellen Stand der Vegetation notwendig, welches aus Beobachtungen und fernerkundliche Messungen gewonnen wird. Die hier präsentierte Arbeit befasst sich mit dem Verständnis der Zusammenhänge zwischen fernerkundlichen Messungen und phänologischen Stadien und somit den Herausforderungen der modernen phänologischen Forschung: Der Vorhersage der Phänologie durch Modellierungsansätze, der Beobachtung der Phänologie mit optischen boden- und satellitengestützten Sensoren und der Validierung phänologischer Produkte.Phenology, the study of recurring life cycle events of plants and animals has emerged as an important part of climate change research within the last decades. One of the main effects of global warming on vegetation is altered phenology, since plants have to modify their growth patterns and reproduction habits as reaction to changing environmental conditions. Forecasting phenology, thus phenological modelling, is a timely challenge given the necessity to predict the impact of global warming on wild-growing species and agricultural crops. However, assessing the present state of vegetation, thus phenological monitoring, is essential to update and validate model results. An improved comprehension of the relationships between plant phenology and remotely sensed products is crucial to interpret these results. Consequently, the presented thesis deals with the main challenges faced in modern phenology research, covering phenological forecasting with a modelling approach, satellite-based phenology extraction, and near-surface long-term monitoring of phenology

A Review of Vegetation Phenological Metrics Extraction Using Time-Series, Multispectral Satellite Data

Vegetation dynamics and phenology play an important role in inter-annual vegetation changes in terrestrial ecosystems and are key indicators of climate-vegetation interactions, land use/land cover changes, and variation in year-to-year vegetation productivity. Satellite remote sensing data have been widely used for vegetation phenology monitoring over large geographic domains using various types of observations and methods over the past several decades. The goal of this paper is to present a detailed review of existing methods for phenology detection and emerging new techniques based on the analysis of time-series, multispectral remote sensing imagery. This paper summarizes the objective and applications of detecting general vegetation phenology stages (e.g., green onset, time or peak greenness, and growing season length) often termed “land surface phenology,” as well as more advanced methods that estimate species-specific phenological stages (e.g., silking stage of maize). Common data-processing methods, such as data smoothing, applied to prepare the time-series remote sensing observations to be applied to phenological detection methods are presented. Specific land surface phenology detection methods as well as species-specific phenology detection methods based on multispectral satellite data are then discussed. The impact of different error sources in the data on remote-sensing based phenology detection are also discussed in detail, as well as ways to reduce these uncertainties and errors. Joint analysis of multiscale observations ranging from satellite to more recent ground-based sensors is helpful for us to understand satellite-based phenology detection mechanism and extent phenology detection to regional scale in the future. Finally, emerging opportunities to further advance remote sensing of phenology is presented that includes observations from Cubesats, near-surface observations such as PhenoCams, and image data fusion techniques to improve the spatial resolution of time-series image data sets needed for phenological characterization

Mapping Impervious Surface Using Phenology-Integrated and Fisher Transformed Linear Spectral Mixture Analysis

The impervious surface area (ISA) is a key indicator of urbanization, which brings out serious adverse environmental and ecological consequences. The ISA is often estimated from remotely sensed data via spectral mixture analysis (SMA). However, accurate extraction of ISA using SMA is compromised by two major factors, endmember spectral variability and plant phenology. This study developed a novel approach that incorporates phenology with Fisher transformation into a conventional linear spectral mixture analysis (PF-LSMA) to address these challenges. Four endmembers, high albedo, low albedo, evergreen vegetation, and seasonally exposed soil (H-L-EV-SS) were identified for PF-LSMA, considering the phenological characteristic of Shanghai. Our study demonstrated that the PF-LSMA effectively reduced the within-endmember spectral signature variation and accounted for the endmember phenology effects, and thus well-discriminated impervious surface from seasonally exposed soil, enhancing the accuracy of ISA extraction. The ISA fraction map produced by PF-LSMA (RMSE = 0.1112) outperforms the single-date image Fisher transformed unmixing method (F-LSMA) (RMSE = 0.1327) and the other existing major global ISA products. The PF-LSMA was implemented on the Google Earth Engine platform and thus can be easily adapted to extract ISA in other places with similar climate conditions.Peer Reviewe

Limitations and Challenges of MODIS-Derived Phenological Metrics Across Different Landscapes in Pan-Arctic Regions

Recent efforts have been made to monitor the seasonal metrics of plant canopy variations globally from space, using optical remote sensing. However, phenological estimations based on vegetation indices (VIs) in high-latitude regions such as the pan-Arctic remain challenging and are rarely validated. Nevertheless, pan-Arctic ecosystems are vulnerable and also crucial in the context of climate change. We reported the limitations and challenges of using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements, a widely exploited set of satellite measurements, to estimate phenological transition dates in pan-Arctic regions. Four indices including normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), phenology index (PI), plant phenological index (PPI) and a MODIS Land Cover Dynamics Product MCD12Q2, were evaluated and compared against eddy covariance (EC) estimates at 11 flux sites of 102 site-years during the period from 2000 to 2014. All the indices were influenced by snow cover and soil moisture during the transition dates. While relationships existed between VI-based and EC-estimated phenological transition dates, the R-2 values were generally low (0.01-0.68). Among the VIs, PPI-estimated metrics showed an inter-annual pattern that was mostly closely related to the EC-based estimations. Thus, further studies are needed to develop region-specific indices to provide more reliable estimates of phenological transition dates.Peer reviewe

The CACAO Method for Smoothing, Gap Filling, and Characterizing Seasonal Anomalies in Satellite Time Series

Consistent, continuous, and long time series of global biophysical variables derived from satellite data are required for global change research. A novel climatology fitting approach called CACAO (Consistent Adjustment of the Climatology to Actual Observations) is proposed to reduce noise and fill gaps in time series by scaling and shifting the seasonal climatological patterns to the actual observations. The shift and scale CACAO parameters adjusted for each season allow quantifying shifts in the timing of seasonal phenology and inter-annual variations in magnitude as compared to the average climatology. CACAO was assessed first over simulated daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series with varying fractions of missing data and noise. Then, performances were analyzed over actual satellite LAI products derived from AVHRR Long-Term Data Record for the 1981-2000 period over the BELMANIP2 globally representative sample of sites. Comparison with two widely used temporal filtering methods-the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) model and the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter as implemented in TIMESAT-revealed that CACAO achieved better performances for smoothing AVHRR time series characterized by high level of noise and frequent missing observations. The resulting smoothed time series captures well the vegetation dynamics and shows no gaps as compared to the 50-60% of still missing data after AG or SG reconstructions. Results of simulation experiments as well as confrontation with actual AVHRR time series indicate that the proposed CACAO method is more robust to noise and missing data than AG and SG methods for phenology extraction

MODISTools - downloading and processing MODIS remotely sensed data in R

Remotely sensed data – available at medium to high resolution across global spatial and temporal scales – are a valuable resource for ecologists. In particular, products from NASA's MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), providing twice-daily global coverage, have been widely used for ecological applications. We present MODISTools, an R package designed to improve the accessing, downloading, and processing of remotely sensed MODIS data. MODISTools automates the process of data downloading and processing from any number of locations, time periods, and MODIS products. This automation reduces the risk of human error, and the researcher effort required compared to manual per-location downloads. The package will be particularly useful for ecological studies that include multiple sites, such as meta-analyses, observation networks, and globally distributed experiments. We give examples of the simple, reproducible workflow that MODISTools provides and of the checks that are carried out in the process. The end product is in a format that is amenable to statistical modeling. We analyzed the relationship between species richness across multiple higher taxa observed at 526 sites in temperate forests and vegetation indices, measures of aboveground net primary productivity. We downloaded MODIS derived vegetation index time series for each location where the species richness had been sampled, and summarized the data into three measures: maximum time-series value, temporal mean, and temporal variability. On average, species richness covaried positively with our vegetation index measures. Different higher taxa show different positive relationships with vegetation indices. Models had high R2 values, suggesting higher taxon identity and a gradient of vegetation index together explain most of the variation in species richness in our data. MODISTools can be used on Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms, and is available from CRAN and GitHub (https://github.com/seantuck12/MODISTools)

A Cross Comparison of Spatiotemporally Enhanced Springtime Phenological Measurements From Satellites and Ground in a Northern U.S. Mixed Forest

Cross comparison of satellite-derived land surface phenology (LSP) and ground measurements is useful to ensure the relevance of detected seasonal vegetation change to the underlying biophysical processes. While standard 16-day and 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI)-based springtime LSP has been evaluated in previous studies, it remains unclear whether LSP with enhanced temporal and spatial resolutions can capture additional details of ground phenology. In this paper, we compared LSP derived from 500-m daily MODIS and 30-m MODIS-Landsat fused VI data with landscape phenology (LP) in a northern U.S. mixed forest. LP was previously developed from intensively observed deciduous and coniferous tree phenology using an upscaling approach. Results showed that daily MODIS-based LSP consistently estimated greenup onset dates at the study area (625 m × 625 m) level with 4.48 days of mean absolute error (MAE), slightly better than that of using 16-day standard VI (4.63 days MAE). For the observed study areas, the time series with increased number of observations confirmed that post-bud burst deciduous tree phenology contributes the most to vegetation reflectance change. Moreover, fused VI time series demonstrated closer correspondences with LP at the community level (0.1-20 ha) than using MODIS alone at the study area level (390 ha). The fused LSP captured greenup onset dates for respective forest communities of varied sizes and compositions with four days of the overall MAE. This study supports further use of spatiotemporally enhanced LSP for more precise phenological monitoring