Privacy in Inter-Vehicular Networks: Why simple pseudonym change is not enough

Inter-vehicle communication (IVC) systems disclose rich location information about vehicles. State-of-the-art security architectures are aware of the problem and provide privacy enhancing mechanisms, notably pseudonymous authentication. However, the granularity and the amount of location information IVC protocols divulge, enable an adversary that eavesdrops all traffic throughout an area, to reconstruct long traces of the whereabouts of the majority of vehicles within the same area. Our analysis in this paper confirms the existence of this kind of threat. As a result, it is questionable if strong location privacy is achievable in IVC systems against a powerful adversary.\u

Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes via the R Package pomp

Partially observed Markov process (POMP) models, also known as hidden Markov models or state space models, are ubiquitous tools for time series analysis. The R package pomp provides a very flexible framework for Monte Carlo statistical investigations using nonlinear, non-Gaussian POMP models. A range of modern statistical methods for POMP models have been implemented in this framework including sequential Monte Carlo, iterated filtering, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, approximate Bayesian computation, maximum synthetic likelihood estimation, nonlinear forecasting, and trajectory matching. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of these methodologies using some simple toy problems. We also illustrate the specification of more complex POMP models, using a nonlinear epidemiological model with a discrete population, seasonality, and extra-demographic stochasticity. We discuss the specification of user-defined models and the development of additional methods within the programming environment provided by pomp.Comment: In press at the Journal of Statistical Software. A version of this paper is provided at the pomp package website: http://kingaa.github.io/pom

Recurrent Neural Networks For Accurate RSSI Indoor Localization

This paper proposes recurrent neuron networks (RNNs) for a fingerprinting indoor localization using WiFi. Instead of locating user's position one at a time as in the cases of conventional algorithms, our RNN solution aims at trajectory positioning and takes into account the relation among the received signal strength indicator (RSSI) measurements in a trajectory. Furthermore, a weighted average filter is proposed for both input RSSI data and sequential output locations to enhance the accuracy among the temporal fluctuations of RSSI. The results using different types of RNN including vanilla RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are presented. On-site experiments demonstrate that the proposed structure achieves an average localization error of $0.75$ m with $80\%$ of the errors under $1$ m, which outperforms the conventional KNN algorithms and probabilistic algorithms by approximately $30\%$ under the same test environment.Comment: Received signal strength indicator (RSSI), WiFi indoor localization, recurrent neuron network (RNN), long shortterm memory (LSTM), fingerprint-based localizatio

Secure Distributed Dynamic State Estimation in Wide-Area Smart Grids

Smart grid is a large complex network with a myriad of vulnerabilities, usually operated in adversarial settings and regulated based on estimated system states. In this study, we propose a novel highly secure distributed dynamic state estimation mechanism for wide-area (multi-area) smart grids, composed of geographically separated subregions, each supervised by a local control center. We firstly propose a distributed state estimator assuming regular system operation, that achieves near-optimal performance based on the local Kalman filters and with the exchange of necessary information between local centers. To enhance the security, we further propose to (i) protect the network database and the network communication channels against attacks and data manipulations via a blockchain (BC)-based system design, where the BC operates on the peer-to-peer network of local centers, (ii) locally detect the measurement anomalies in real-time to eliminate their effects on the state estimation process, and (iii) detect misbehaving (hacked/faulty) local centers in real-time via a distributed trust management scheme over the network. We provide theoretical guarantees regarding the false alarm rates of the proposed detection schemes, where the false alarms can be easily controlled. Numerical studies illustrate that the proposed mechanism offers reliable state estimation under regular system operation, timely and accurate detection of anomalies, and good state recovery performance in case of anomalies

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency

An investigation into the prognosis of electromagnetic relays.

Electrical contacts provide a well-proven solution to switching various loads in a wide variety of applications, such as power distribution, control applications, automotive and telecommunications. However, electrical contacts are known for limited reliability due to degradation effects upon the switching contacts due to arcing and fretting. Essentially, the life of the device may be determined by the limited life of the contacts. Failure to trip, spurious tripping and contact welding can, in critical applications such as control systems for avionics and nuclear power application, cause significant costs due to downtime, as well as safety implications. Prognostics provides a way to assess the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operating conditions. In this thesis, the effects of contact wear on a set of electromagnetic relays used in an avionic power controller is examined, and how contact resistance combined with a prognostic approach, can be used to ascertain the RUL of the device. Two methodologies are presented, firstly a Physics based Model (PbM) of the degradation using the predicted material loss due to arc damage. Secondly a computationally efficient technique using posterior degradation data to form a state space model in real time via a Sliding Window Recursive Least Squares (SWRLS) algorithm. Health monitoring using the presented techniques can provide knowledge of impending failure in high reliability applications where the risks associated with loss-of-functionality are too high to endure. The future states of the systems has been estimated based on a Particle and Kalman-filter projection of the models via a Bayesian framework. Performance of the prognostication health management algorithm during the contacts life has been quantified using performance evaluation metrics. Model predictions have been correlated with experimental data. Prognostic metrics including Prognostic Horizon (PH), alpha-Lamda (α-λ), and Relative Accuracy have been used to assess the performance of the damage proxies and a comparison of the two models made

Assimilação de dados por filtro de Kalman por conjunto em um modelo hidrológico distribuído na bacia do rio Tocantins, Brasil

Neste trabalho, o método de assimilação de dados por filtro de Kalman por conjunto (EnKF) é aplicado na bacia do rio Tocantins. Esse método atualiza as vazões do rio usando um modelo hidrológico distribuído. O desempenho de EnKF é também comparado com um método de assimilação empírico a intervalos de tempo horário, onde duas aplicações baseadas em transferência de informação de locais monitorados para não monitorados e previsão de vazão em tempo real são avaliadas. Na primeira aplicação, ambos os métodos de assimilação de dado conseguem transferir vazões a outros locais não monitorados, obtendo melhores resultados quando mais de uma estação localizada a montante ou a jusante da bacia são monitoradas. Na segunda aplicação, a integração de um modelo de previsão com EnKF consegue absorver os erros no início da previsão. Dessa forma, uma maior eficiência no índice de Nash-Sutcliffe para as primeiras 144 horas de antecedência é encontrada quando se compara com os resultados do modelo sem assimilação. Finalmente, a comparação entre os métodos de assimilação de dados no modelo de previsão mostra uma maior vantagem a favor de EnKF em maiores horizontes de previsão.In this work, the data assimilation method namely ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is applied to the Tocantins River basin. This method assimilates streamflow results by using a distributed hydrological model. The performance of the EnKF is also compared with an empirical assimilation method for hourly time intervals, in which two applications based on information transfer from gauged to ungauged sites and real time streamflow forecasting are assessed. In the first application, both assimilation methods are able to transfer streamflow to ungauged sites, obtaining better results when more than one station located upstream or downstream of the basin are gauged. In the second application, integration of a real time forecast model with EnKF is able to absorb errors at the beginning of the forecast. Therefore, a greater efficiency in the Nash-Sutcliffe index for the first 144 hours in advance in relation to its counterpart without assimilation is obtained. Finally, a comparison between both data assimilation methods shows a greater advantage for the EnKF in long lead times