Banks' risk assessment of Swedish SMEs

Building on the literatures on asymmetric information and risk taking, this paper applies conjoint experiments to investigate lending officers' probabilities of supporting credit to established or existing SMEs. Using a sample of 114 Swedish lending officers, we test hypotheses concerning how information on the borrower's ability to repay the loan; alignment of risk preferences; and risk sharing affect their willingness to grant credit. Results suggest that features that reduce the risk to the bank and shift the risk to the borrower have the largest impact. The paper highlights the interaction between factors that influence the credit decision. Implications for SMEs, banks and research are discussed

Hybrid model using logit and nonparametric methods for predicting micro-entity failure

Following the calls from literature on bankruptcy, a parsimonious hybrid bankruptcy model is developed in this paper by combining parametric and non-parametric approaches.To this end, the variables with the highest predictive power to detect bankruptcy are selected using logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, alternative non-parametric methods (Multilayer Perceptron, Rough Set, and Classification-Regression Trees) are applied, in turn, to firms classified as either “bankrupt” or “not bankrupt”. Our findings show that hybrid models, particularly those combining LR and Multilayer Perceptron, offer better accuracy performance and interpretability and converge faster than each method implemented in isolation. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that the introduction of non-financial and macroeconomic variables complement financial ratios for bankruptcy prediction

Trust me, I'm an entrepreneur! Can trust help SMEs to gain the credit they need?

Research on relationship lending focuses attention on economic factors which influence the relationships between SMEs' owners/managers and banks but no previous work has focused on the role of trust. Trust is expected to reduce transaction costs and agency costs, reduce the perceived credit risk and, thus, influence credit availability. Trustwor-thiness is associated with three attributes of SME owner managers' namely; ability, be-nevolence and integrity. It is hypothesised that lending managers' assessment of the trustworthiness of SME owner managers affects the ability of SMES to gain the credit. Trustworthiness is hypothesised as positively associated with credit access in contrast to lower trustworthiness which is associated with credit constraint. Use of overdraft is con-sidered here as indicator of credit constraint. The data were obtained from a survey of lending managers from banks in North East Italy. Control variables and a vector of trustworthiness factors were collected on a random sample of borrowers, resulting in a sample of 535 firms. Results from regression analysis found evidence that firms enjoy-ing high level of trust are able to access the credit they need and therefore are less credit constrained. Some implications of these results for banks, owner managers and future research are discussed

Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia

Banks entering an emerging market face a lot of uncertainty about the risks involved in lending. We use a unique unbalanced panel of nearly 700 short term loans made to SMEs in Slovakia between January 2000 and June 2005. Of the loans granted, on average 6.0 per cent of the firms defaulted. Several probit models and panel probit models show that liquidity and profitability factors are important determinants of SMEs defaults, while debt factors are less robust. However, we find that above average indebtedness significantly increases the probability of default. Moreover, the legal form that determines liability has important incentive effects.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57234/1/wp854 .pd