Modeling the price of trends of teak wood using statistical and artificial neural network techniques

Modeling the trends and patterns in financial data is of great interest to the business community to support the decision-making process. In this study, the historical trends in the real prices of teak wood were described using spline models and the time periods for which the rate of change in real prices differed were identified. The possible reasons for this phenomenon such as impact of forest legislations and other factors have been explained.  In forecasting teak wood prices, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was compared with the traditional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was lesser in the case of ANN than the ARIMA model. Further, the turning points were more closely predicted by ANN. It appeared that forecast by ANN was heavily dependent on the previous value(s) immediate to the forecasting year. The study concluded that the next year price forecasts by univariate ARIMA and ANN models may be far from actual prices due to unanticipated factors

Decision support system for the production of miscanthus and willow briquettes

The biomass is regarded as a part of renewable energy sources (RES), which can satisfy energy demands. Biomass obtained from plantations is characterized by low bulk density, which increases transport and storage costs. Briquetting is a technology that relies on pressing biomass with the aim of obtaining a denser product (briquettes). In the production of solid biofuels, the technological as well as material variables significantly influence the densification process, and as a result influence the end quality of briquette. This process progresses differently for different materials. Therefore, the optimal selection of process’ parameters is very difficult. It is necessary to use a decision support tool—decision support system (DSS). The purpose of the work was to develop a decision support system that would indicate the optimal parameters for conducting the process of producing Miscanthus and willow briquettes (pre-comminution, milling and briquetting), briquette parameters (durability and specific density) and total energy consumption based on process simulation. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to describe the relationship between individual parameters of the briquette production process. DSS has the form of a web application and is opened from a web browser (it is possible to open it on various types of devices). The modular design allows the modification and expansion the application in the future

Evaluation and Forecast of Energy Consumption in Different Sectors of the United States Using Artificial Neural Networks

The United States is a country which consumes a vast amount of energy. In order to keep the development of the United States sustainable (diverse and productive over the time) energy planning should be carried out comprehensively and precisely. This dissertation presents a specific mathematical modeling approach towards energy demand modeling of the United States and forecast future energy demand. To generate more detailed and accurate results, this dissertation investigates the energy demand of each sector separately using the analysis of trend for unique set of independent parameters which affect the energy demand in that sector. In solving a forecast problem with artificial neural networks, the most important part is to choose the independent variables that provide the most precise estimate of the dependent variable. While including too many variables makes the model complicated and increases the calculation time significantly, excluding important independent variables makes integrity of the model questionable and reduces its predictive ability. In this study, correlation coefficient analysis is applied to initially select the independent variables. In terms of forecasting the energy demand in the residential sector, the MLR and ANN models show two different trends while their performances are at a similar level of accuracy during the test period. ANN model anticipates a small increase in the energy demand of the transportation sector. Although a small increase has been estimated by the ANN, the United States should keep trying to reduce energy consumption in order to reduce CO2 gas and meet its national and international commitments. ANN is also applied to forecast the industrial energy demand and perform future projections for the period 2013-2030. Based on model trained with historical data of period 1980-2012, the price of energy significantly affects the amount of energy used in the industrial sector. Hence, ascending price scenario and descending price scenario will result in 7% and 25% increase in the energy demand of this sector, respectively. Based on model trained with historical data of period 1987-2012, the U.S. trade significantly affects the amount of energy used in the commercial sector. Hence, ascending trade scenario and descending trade scenario will result in 5% and 2% increase in the energy demand of this sector, respectively

Essays on Predictive Analytics in E-Commerce

Die Motivation für diese Dissertation ist dualer Natur: Einerseits ist die Dissertation methodologisch orientiert und entwickelt neue statistische Ansätze und Algorithmen für maschinelles Lernen. Gleichzeitig ist sie praktisch orientiert und fokussiert sich auf den konkreten Anwendungsfall von Produktretouren im Onlinehandel. Die “data explosion”, veursacht durch die Tatsache, dass die Kosten für das Speichern und Prozessieren großer Datenmengen signifikant gesunken sind (Bhimani and Willcocks, 2014), und die neuen Technologien, die daraus resultieren, stellen die größte Diskontinuität für die betriebliche Praxis und betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung seit Entwicklung des Internets dar (Agarwal and Dhar, 2014). Insbesondere die Business Intelligence (BI) wurde als wichtiges Forschungsthema für Praktiker und Akademiker im Bereich der Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI) identifiziert (Chen et al., 2012). Maschinelles Lernen wurde erfolgreich auf eine Reihe von BI-Problemen angewandt, wie zum Beispiel Absatzprognose (Choi et al., 2014; Sun et al., 2008), Prognose von Windstromerzeugung (Wan et al., 2014), Prognose des Krankheitsverlaufs von Patienten eines Krankenhauses (Liu et al., 2015), Identifikation von Betrug Abbasi et al., 2012) oder Recommender-Systeme (Sahoo et al., 2012). Allerdings gibt es nur wenig Forschung, die sich mit Fragestellungen um maschinelles Lernen mit spezifischen Bezug zu BI befasst: Obwohl existierende Algorithmen teilweise modifiziert werden, um sie auf ein bestimmtes Problem anzupassen (Abbasi et al., 2010; Sahoo et al., 2012), beschränkt sich die WI-Forschung im Allgemeinen darauf, existierende Algorithmen, die für andere Fragestellungen als BI entwickelt wurden, auf BI-Fragestellungen anzuwenden (Abbasi et al., 2010; Sahoo et al., 2012). Das erste wichtige Ziel dieser Dissertation besteht darin, einen Beitrag dazu zu leisten, diese Lücke zu schließen. Diese Dissertation fokussiert sich auf das wichtige BI-Problem von Produktretouren im Onlinehandel für eine Illustration und praktische Anwendung der vorgeschlagenen Konzepte. Viele Onlinehändler sind nicht profitabel (Rigby, 2014) und Produktretouren sind eine wichtige Ursache für dieses Problem (Grewal et al., 2004). Neben Kostenaspekten sind Produktretouren aus ökologischer Sicht problematisch. In der Logistikforschung ist es weitestgehend Konsens, dass die “letzte Meile” der Zulieferkette, nämlich dann wenn das Produkt an die Haustür des Kunden geliefert wird, am CO2-intensivsten ist (Browne et al., 2008; Halldórsson et al., 2010; Song et al., 2009). Werden Produkte retourniert, wird dieser energieintensive Schritt wiederholt, wodurch sich die Nachhaltigkeit und Umweltfreundlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells von Onlinehändlern relativ zum klassischen Vertrieb reduziert. Allerdings können Onlinehändler Produktretouren nicht einfach verbieten, da sie einen wichtigen Teil ihres Geschäftsmodells darstellen: So hat die Möglichkeit, Produkte zu retournieren positive Auswirkungen auf Kundenzufriedenheit (Cassill, 1998), Kaufverhalten (Wood, 2001), künftiges Kaufverhalten (Petersen and Kumar, 2009) und emotianale Reaktionen der Kunden (Suwelack et al., 2011). Ein vielversprechender Ansatz besteht darin, sich auf impulsives und kompulsives (LaRose, 2001) sowie betrügerisches Kaufverhalten zu fokussieren (Speights and Hilinski, 2005; Wachter et al., 2012). In gegenwärtigen akademschen Literatur zu dem Thema gibt es keine solchen Strategien. Die meisten Strategien unterscheiden nicht zwischen gewollten und ungewollten Retouren (Walsh et al., 2014). Das zweite Ziel dieser Dissertation besteht daher darin, die Basis für eine Strategie von Prognose und Intervention zu entwickeln, mit welcher Konsumverhalten mit hoher Retourenwahrscheinlichkeit im Vorfeld erkannt und rechtzeitig interveniert werden kann. In dieser Dissertation werden mehrere Prognosemodelle entwickelt, auf Basis welcher demonstriert wird, dass die Strategie, unter der Annahme moderat effektiver Interventionsstrategien, erhebliche Kosteneinsparungen mit sich bringt

An Overview of Carbon Footprint Mitigation Strategies. Machine Learning for Societal Improvement, Modernization, and Progress

Among the most pressing issues in the world today is the impact of globalization and energy consumption on the environment. Despite the growing regulatory framework to prevent ecological degradation, sustainability continues to be a problem. Machine learning can help with the transition toward a net-zero carbon society. Substantial work has been done in this direction. Changing electrical systems, transportation, buildings, industry, and land use are all necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the carbon footprint aspect of sustainability, this chapter provides a detailed overview of how machine learning can be applied to forge a path to ecological sustainability in each of these areas. The chapter highlights how various machine learning algorithms are used to increase the use of renewable energy, efficient transportation, and waste management systems to reduce the carbon footprint. The authors summarize the findings from the current research literature and conclude by providing a few future directions

Reverse mortgage: a neural network approach for pricing and risk assessment

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementPopulation aging and low precautionary savings rates has put European public social systems under strain. As a result, home-ownership among seniors as viable mean of income stream enhancement and welfare for seniors has been boldly encouraged by governments. Thus, equity release instruments for pensioners have been proposed by the market. These products are mostly encompassed in North America where the elderly are less reluctant to express their desire to transform housing into wealth. Still, southern European countries present large home-ownership rates and an aging low income population that may well unlock future demand. Whilst housing is a highly illiquid asset and emotional attachment as well as inconvenience of moving barriers may occur, in recent literature relatively new approaches to monetize homes have undergone major developments. Particularly, this study will be mainly concerned with the risk and profitability analysis of reverse mortgage schemes through actuarial and deep learning techniques in the attempt to conceive a framework that fully encompasses the valuation needs of companies willing to commercialize home equity based products

Experimental investigation and modelling of the heating value and elemental composition of biomass through artificial intelligence

Abstract: Knowledge advancement in artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies provides new potential predictive reliability for biomass energy value chain. However, for the prediction approach against experimental methodology, the prediction accuracy is expected to be high in order to develop a high fidelity and robust software which can serve as a tool in the decision making process. The global standards related to classification methods and energetic properties of biomass are still evolving given different observation and results which have been reported in the literature. Apart from these, there is a need for a holistic understanding of the effect of particle sizes and geospatial factors on the physicochemical properties of biomass to increase the uptake of bioenergy. Therefore, this research carried out an experimental investigation of some selected bioresources and also develops high-fidelity models built on artificial intelligence capability to accurately classify the biomass feedstocks, predict the main elemental composition (Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen) on dry basis and the Heating value in (MJ/kg) of biomass...Ph.D. (Mechanical Engineering Science

Deep Learning based Prediction of Clogging Occurrences during Lignocellulosic Biomass Feeding in Screw Conveyors

Over the last decades, there have been substantial government and private sector investments to establish a commercial biorefining industry that uses lignocellulosic biomass as feedstock to produce fuels, chemicals, and other products. However, several biorefining plants experienced material conveyance problems due to the variability and complexity of the biomass feedstock. While the problems were reported in most conveyance unit operations in the biorefining plants, screw conveyors merit special attention because they are the most common conveyors used in biomass conveyance and typically function as the last conveyance unit connected to the conversion reactors. Thus, their operating status affects the plant production rate. Therefore, detecting emerging clogging events and, ultimately, proactively adjusting operating conditions to avoid downtime is crucial to improving overall plant economics. One promising solution is the development of sensor systems to detect clogging to support automated decision-making and process control. In this study, two deep learning based algorithms are developed to detect an imminent clogging event based on the current signature and vibration signals extracted from the sensors connected to the benchtop screw conveyor system. The study focuses on three biomass materials (switchgrass, loblolly pine, and hybrid poplar) and is designed around three research objectives. The first research objective examines the relationship between the occurrence of clogging in a screw conveyor and the current and vibration signals on the different feedstocks to establish the presence of clogging event fingerprint that could be exploited in automated decision-making and process-control. The second research objective applies two deep learning algorithms to the current and vibration signals to detect the imminent occurrence of clogging and its severity for decision making with an optimization procedure. The third objective examines the robustness of the optimized deep learning algorithm to detection imminent clogging events when feedstock properties (size distribution and moisture contents) vary. In the long-term, the early clogging detection methodology developed in this study could be leveraged to develop smart process controls for biomass conveyance