Proactive Assessment of Accident Risk to Improve Safety on a System of Freeways, Research Report 11-15

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the 16-month period from January 2010 through April 2011 are used to link historical crash occurrences with real-time traffic patterns observed through loop-detector data. \u27The crash risk-assessment models are based on a binary classification approach (crash and non-crash outcomes), with traffic parameters measured at surrounding vehicle detection station (VDS) locations as the independent variables. The analysis techniques used in this study are logistic regression and classification trees. Prior to developing the models, some data-related issues such as data cleaning and aggregation were addressed. The modeling efforts revealed that the turbulence resulting from speed variation is significantly associated with crash risk on the U.S. 101 NB corridor. The models estimated with data from U.S. 101 NB were evaluated on the basis of their classification performance, not only on U.S. 101 NB, but also on the other three freeway segments for transferability assessment. It was found that the predictive model derived from one freeway can be readily applied to other freeways, although the classification performance decreases. The models that transfer best to other roadways were determined to be those that use the least number of VDSs–that is, those that use one upstream or downstream station rather than two or three.\ The classification accuracy of the models is discussed in terms of how the models can be used for real-time crash risk assessment. The models can be applied to developing and testing variable speed limits (VSLs) and ramp-metering strategies that proactively attempt to reduce crash risk

An Unsupervised Feature Learning Approach to Improve Automatic Incident Detection

Sophisticated automatic incident detection (AID) technology plays a key role in contemporary transportation systems. Though many papers were devoted to study incident classification algorithms, few study investigated how to enhance feature representation of incidents to improve AID performance. In this paper, we propose to use an unsupervised feature learning algorithm to generate higher level features to represent incidents. We used real incident data in the experiments and found that effective feature mapping function can be learnt from the data crosses the test sites. With the enhanced features, detection rate (DR), false alarm rate (FAR) and mean time to detect (MTTD) are significantly improved in all of the three representative cases. This approach also provides an alternative way to reduce the amount of labeled data, which is expensive to obtain, required in training better incident classifiers since the feature learning is unsupervised.Comment: The 15th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2012

An integrated method for short-term prediction of road traffic conditions for intelligent transportation systems applications

The paper deals with the short-term prediction of road traffic conditions within Intelligent Transportation Systems applications. First, the problem of traffic modeling and the potential of different traffic monitoring technologies are discussed. Then, an integrated method for short-term traffic prediction is presented, which integrates an Artificial Neural Network predictor that forecasts future states in standard conditions, an anomaly detection module that exploits floating car data to individuate possible occurrences of anomalous traffic conditions, and a macroscopic traffic model that predicts speeds and queue progressions in case of anomalies. Results of offline applications on a primary Italian motorway are presented

Incorporating neural network traffic prediction into freeway incident detection

The efficient operation of an incident management system depend Neural network models have been applied to traffic prediction frequently and even repeatedly because of its superior capability in emulating nonlinear systems. However, these traffic prediction models have not been utilized for incident detection. On the other hand, it is expected that the performance of an incident detection algorithm can be improved if an advanced prediction model is incorporated into. Therefore, this study developed several traffic prediction models that were then integrated into incident detection algorithms. The traffic prediction models were developed based on three different choices of independent variables, while the incident detection algorithms employed different decision functions. The results show that a good prediction model can improve the performance of an incident detection algorithm only when the decision function of the algorithm is appropriately chosen

Computational Intelligence in Highway Management: A Review

Highway management systems are used to improve safety and driving comfort on highways by using control strategies and providing information and warnings to drivers. They use several strategies starting from speed and lane management, through incident detection and warning systems, ramp metering, weather information up to, for example, informing drivers about alternative roads. This paper provides a review of the existing approaches to highway management systems, particularly speed harmonization and ramp metering. It is focused only on modern and advanced approaches, such as soft computing, multi-agent methods and their interconnection. Its objective is to provide guidance in the wide field of highway management and to point out the most relevant recent activities which demonstrate that development in the field of highway management is still important and that the existing research exhibits potential for further enhancement

Integrated Approach for Diversion Route Performance Management during Incidents

Non-recurrent congestion is one of the critical sources of congestion on the highway. In particular, traffic incidents create congestion in unexpected times and places that travelers do not prepare for. During incidents on freeways, route diversion has been proven to be a useful tactic to mitigate non-recurrent congestion. However, the capacity constraints created by the signals on the alternative routes put limits on the diversion process since the typical time-of-day signal control cannot handle the sudden increase in the traffic on the arterials due to diversion. Thus, there is a need for proactive strategies for the management of the diversion routes performance and for coordinated freeway and arterial (CFA) operation during incidents on the freeway. Proactive strategies provide better opportunities for both the agency and the traveler to make and implement decisions to improve performance. This dissertation develops a methodology for the performance management of diversion routes through integrating freeway and arterials operation during incidents on the freeway. The methodology includes the identification of potential diversion routes for freeway incidents and the generation and implementation of special signal plans under different incident and traffic conditions. The study utilizes machine learning, data analytics, multi-resolution modeling, and multi-objective optimization for this purpose. A data analytic approach based on the long short term memory (LSTM) deep neural network method is used to predict the utilized alternative routes dynamically using incident attributes and traffic status on the freeway and travel time on both the freeway and alternative routes during the incident. Then, a combination of clustering analysis, multi- resolution modeling (MRM), and multi-objective optimization techniques are used to develop and activate special signal plans on the identified alternative routes. The developed methods use data from different sources, including connected vehicle (CV) data and high- resolution controller (HRC) data for congestion patterns identification at the critical intersections on the alternative routes and signal plans generation. The results indicate that implementing signal timing plans to better accommodate the diverted traffic can improve the performance of the diverted traffic without significantly deteriorating other movements\u27 performance at the intersection. The findings show the importance of using data from emerging sources in developing plans to improve the performance of the diversion routes and ensure CFA operation with higher effectiveness

Real-time freeway network traffic surveillance: large-scale field testing results in Southern Italy

This paper reports on some large-scale field-testing results of a real-time freeway network traffic surveillance tool that has recently been developed to enable a number of real-time traffic surveillance tasks. This paper first introduces the related network traffic flow model and the approaches employed to traffic state estimation, traffic state prediction, and incident alarm. The field testing of the tool for these surveillance tasks in the A3 freeway of 100 km between Naples and Salerno in southern Italy is then reported in some detail. The results obtained are quite satisfactory and promising for further future implementations of the tool