TWINLATIN: Twinning European and Latin-American river basins for research enabling sustainable water resources management. Combined Report D3.1 Hydrological modelling report and D3.2 Evaluation report

Water use has almost tripled over the past 50 years and in some regions the water demand already exceeds supply (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). The world is facing a “global water crisis”; in many countries, current levels of water use are unsustainable, with systems vulnerable to collapse from even small changes in water availability. The need for a scientifically-based assessment of the potential impacts on water resources of future changes, as a basis for society to adapt to such changes, is strong for most parts of the world. Although the focus of such assessments has tended to be climate change, socio-economic changes can have as significant an impact on water availability across the four main use sectors i.e. domestic, agricultural, industrial (including energy) and environmental. Withdrawal and consumption of water is expected to continue to grow substantially over the next 20-50 years (Cosgrove & Rijsberman, 2002), and consequent changes in availability may drastically affect society and economies. One of the most needed improvements in Latin American river basin management is a higher level of detail in hydrological modelling and erosion risk assessment, as a basis for identification and analysis of mitigation actions, as well as for analysis of global change scenarios. Flow measurements are too costly to be realised at more than a few locations, which means that modelled data are required for the rest of the basin. Hence, TWINLATIN Work Package 3 “Hydrological modelling and extremes” was formulated to provide methods and tools to be used by other WPs, in particular WP6 on “Pollution pressure and impact analysis” and WP8 on “Change effects and vulnerability assessment”. With an emphasis on high and low flows and their impacts, WP3 was originally called “Hydrological modelling, flooding, erosion, water scarcity and water abstraction”. However, at the TWINLATIN kick-off meeting it was agreed that some of these issues resided more appropriately in WP6 and WP8, and so WP3 was renamed to focus on hydrological modelling and hydrological extremes. The specific objectives of WP3 as set out in the Description of Work are

Multi-temporal evaluation of soil moisture and land surface temperature dynamics using in situ and satellite observations

Soil moisture (SM) is an important component of the Earth’s surface water balance and by extension the energy balance, regulating the land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET). Nowadays, there are two missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth’s surface SM using L-band radiometers: ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). LST is remotely sensed using thermal infrared (TIR) sensors on-board satellites, such as NASA’s Terra/Aqua MODIS or ESA & EUMETSAT’s MSG SEVIRI. This study provides an assessment of SM and LST dynamics at daily and seasonal scales, using 4 years (2011–2014) of in situ and satellite observations over the central part of the river Duero basin in Spain. Specifically, the agreement of instantaneous SM with a variety of LST-derived parameters is analyzed to better understand the fundamental link of the SM–LST relationship through ET and thermal inertia. Ground-based SM and LST measurements from the REMEDHUS network are compared to SMOS SM and MODIS LST spaceborne observations. ET is obtained from the HidroMORE regional hydrological model. At the daily scale, a strong anticorrelation is observed between in situ SM and maximum LST (R ˜ -0.6 to -0.8), and between SMOS SM and MODIS LST Terra/Aqua day (R ˜ - 0.7). At the seasonal scale, results show a stronger anticorrelation in autumn, spring and summer (in situ R ˜ -0.5 to -0.7; satellite R ˜ -0.4 to -0.7) indicating SM–LST coupling, than in winter (in situ R ˜ +0.3; satellite R ˜ -0.3) indicating SM–LST decoupling. These different behaviors evidence changes from water-limited to energy-limited moisture flux across seasons, which are confirmed by the observed ET evolution. In water-limited periods, SM is extracted from the soil through ET until critical SM is reached. A method to estimate the soil critical SM is proposed. For REMEDHUS, the critical SM is estimated to be ~0.12 m3/m3 , stable over the study period and consistent between in situ and satellite observations. A better understanding of the SM–LST link could not only help improving the representation of LST in current hydrological and climate prediction models, but also refining SM retrieval or microwave-optical disaggregation algorithms, related to ET and vegetation status.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle

Assessing the utility of geospatial technologies to investigate environmental change within lake systems

Over 50% of the world's population live within 3. km of rivers and lakes highlighting the on-going importance of freshwater resources to human health and societal well-being. Whilst covering c. 3.5% of the Earth's non-glaciated land mass, trends in the environmental quality of the world's standing waters (natural lakes and reservoirs) are poorly understood, at least in comparison with rivers, and so evaluation of their current condition and sensitivity to change are global priorities. Here it is argued that a geospatial approach harnessing existing global datasets, along with new generation remote sensing products, offers the basis to characterise trajectories of change in lake properties e.g., water quality, physical structure, hydrological regime and ecological behaviour. This approach furthermore provides the evidence base to understand the relative importance of climatic forcing and/or changing catchment processes, e.g. land cover and soil moisture data, which coupled with climate data provide the basis to model regional water balance and runoff estimates over time. Using examples derived primarily from the Danube Basin but also other parts of the World, we demonstrate the power of the approach and its utility to assess the sensitivity of lake systems to environmental change, and hence better manage these key resources in the future

Methods to Evaluate Land-Atmosphere Exchanges in Amazonia Based on Satellite Imagery and Ground Measurements

During the last three decades, intensive campaigns and experiments have been conducted for acquiring micrometeorological data in the Amazonian ecosystems, which has increased our understanding of the variation, especially seasonally, of the total energy available for the atmospheric heating process by the surface, evapotranspiration and carbon exchanges. However, the measurements obtained by such experiments generally cover small areas and are not representative of the spatial variability of these processes. This chapter aims to discuss several algorithms developed to estimate surface energy and carbon fluxes combining satellite data and micrometeorological observations, highlighting the potentialities and limitations of such models for applications in the Amazon region. We show that the use of these models presents an important role in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of biophysical surface parameters in a region where most of the information is local. Data generated may be used as inputs in earth system surface models allowing the evaluation of the impact, both in regional as well as global scales, caused by land-use and land-cover changes

Evaluation of MOD16 algorithm over irrigated rice paddy using flux tower measurements in Southern Brazil

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Understanding the ET process has become of fundamental importance given the scenario of global change and increasing water use, especially in the agricultural sector. Determining ET over large agricultural areas is a limiting factor due to observational data availability. In this regard, remote sensing data has been used to estimate ET. In this study, we evaluated the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface ET product estimates (hereafter MOD16 ET - MODIS Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Product) over two rice paddy areas in Southern Brazil, through the ET measured using the eddy covariance technique (hereafter EC). The energy balance components were evaluated during fallow and flooded seasons showing latent heat flux dominates in both seasons. The results showed that MOD16 ET underestimated EC measurements. Overall, the RMSE (root mean square error) ranged between 13.40 and 16.35 mm 8-day-1 and percent bias (PBIAS) ranged between -33.7% and -38.7%. We also assessed the ET (measured and estimated) main drivers, with EC yielding higher correlation against observed net radiation (Rn) and global radiation (Rg), followed by air temperature (Temp) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), whilst MOD16 ET estimates yielded higher correlation against leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR). The MOD16 algorithm was forced with meteorological measurements but the results did not improve as expected, suggesting a low sensitivity to meteorological inputs. Our results indicated when a water layer was present over the soil surface without vegetation (LAI around zero), the largest differences between EC measurements and MOD16 ET were found. In this period, the expected domain of soil evaporation was not observed in MOD16 ET physical processes partition, indicating the algorithm was not able to detect areas with high soil moisture. In general, the MOD16 ET product presented low accuracy when compared against experimental measurements over flooded rice paddy, suggesting more studies are necessary, in order to reduce uncertainties associated to the land cover conditions