14,670 research outputs found

    Testing for Structural Breaks and other forms of Non-stationarity: a Misspecification Perspective

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    In the 1980s and 1990s the issue of non-stationarity in economic time series has been in the context of unit roots vs. mean trends in AR(p) models. More recently this perspective has been extended to include structural breaks. In this paper we take a much broader perspective by viewing the problem as one of misspecification testing: assessing the stationarity of the underlying process. The proposed misspecification testing procedure relies on resampling techniques to enhance the informational content of the observed data in an attempt to capture heterogeneity `locally' using rolling window estimators of the primary moments of the stochastic process. The effectiveness of the testing procedure is assessed using extensive Monte Carlo simulationsMaximum Entropy Bootstrap, Non-Stationarity

    Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS): A MATLAB Toolkit for Computation of Multiple Measures on Time Series Data Bases

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    In many applications, such as physiology and finance, large time series data bases are to be analyzed requiring the computation of linear, nonlinear and other measures. Such measures have been developed and implemented in commercial and freeware softwares rather selectively and independently. The Measures of Analysis of Time Series ({\tt MATS}) {\tt MATLAB} toolkit is designed to handle an arbitrary large set of scalar time series and compute a large variety of measures on them, allowing for the specification of varying measure parameters as well. The variety of options with added facilities for visualization of the results support different settings of time series analysis, such as the detection of dynamics changes in long data records, resampling (surrogate or bootstrap) tests for independence and linearity with various test statistics, and discrimination power of different measures and for different combinations of their parameters. The basic features of {\tt MATS} are presented and the implemented measures are briefly described. The usefulness of {\tt MATS} is illustrated on some empirical examples along with screenshots.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, two tables, the software can be downloaded at http://eeganalysis.web.auth.gr/indexen.ht

    Rule-based Machine Learning Methods for Functional Prediction

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    We describe a machine learning method for predicting the value of a real-valued function, given the values of multiple input variables. The method induces solutions from samples in the form of ordered disjunctive normal form (DNF) decision rules. A central objective of the method and representation is the induction of compact, easily interpretable solutions. This rule-based decision model can be extended to search efficiently for similar cases prior to approximating function values. Experimental results on real-world data demonstrate that the new techniques are competitive with existing machine learning and statistical methods and can sometimes yield superior regression performance.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

    Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS): A MATLAB Toolkit for Computation of Multiple Measures on Time Series Data Bases

    Get PDF
    In many applications, such as physiology and finance, large time series data bases are to be analyzed requiring the computation of linear, nonlinear and other measures. Such measures have been developed and implemented in commercial and freeware softwares rather selectively and independently. The Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS) MATLAB toolkit is designed to handle an arbitrary large set of scalar time series and compute a large variety of measures on them, allowing for the specification of varying measure parameters as well. The variety of options with added facilities for visualization of the results support different settings of time series analysis, such as the detection of dynamics changes in long data records, resampling (surrogate or bootstrap) tests for independence and linearity with various test statistics, and discrimination power of different measures and for different combinations of their parameters. The basic features of MATS are presented and the implemented measures are briefly described. The usefulness of MATS is illustrated on some empirical examples along with screenshots.

    PPF - A Parallel Particle Filtering Library

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    We present the parallel particle filtering (PPF) software library, which enables hybrid shared-memory/distributed-memory parallelization of particle filtering (PF) algorithms combining the Message Passing Interface (MPI) with multithreading for multi-level parallelism. The library is implemented in Java and relies on OpenMPI's Java bindings for inter-process communication. It includes dynamic load balancing, multi-thread balancing, and several algorithmic improvements for PF, such as input-space domain decomposition. The PPF library hides the difficulties of efficient parallel programming of PF algorithms and provides application developers with the necessary tools for parallel implementation of PF methods. We demonstrate the capabilities of the PPF library using two distributed PF algorithms in two scenarios with different numbers of particles. The PPF library runs a 38 million particle problem, corresponding to more than 1.86 GB of particle data, on 192 cores with 67% parallel efficiency. To the best of our knowledge, the PPF library is the first open-source software that offers a parallel framework for PF applications.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures; will appear in the proceedings of the IET Data Fusion & Target Tracking Conference 201

    Energy Substitutability in Canadian Manufacturing: Econometric Estimation with Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

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    This study provides estimates of the price and Morishima substitution elasticities between energy and non-energy inputs in two Canadian energy-intensive manufacturing industries: Primary Metal and Cement. The elasticities are estimated using annual industry-level KLEM data (1961- 2003) and relying on two flexible functional forms: the Translog and the Symmetric Generalized McFadden (SGM) cost functions. In addition to the point estimates, the confidence intervals of the elasticities are computed using single- and double-bootstrap resampling techniques. For both industries, the estimation results suggest that capital, labour, material and energy are pairwise substitutes and that energy is the most substitutable input. However, the low magnitudes of the estimated elasticities do not seem to offer great flexibility to these industries to adapt to high increases in energy prices.Energy; Elasticity of substitution; Translog cost function; Symmetric Generalized McFadden (SGM) Cost Function; Single Bootstrap; Double Bootstrap.
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