Economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from China

Using time series data, this paper investigates China’s carbon emissions during 1960-2006, with particular focus on the direct role of growth and in connection to trade and the value added by various sectors like agriculture, industry and services. Our empirical results indicate the presence of an inverted U-shaped curve between CO2 emissions and growth represented by the GDP per capita. Trade seems to be an important determinant in this relationship.CO2 emissions; Economic growth; Trade; Environmental kuznets curve; China

Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets

What is the magnitude of uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, GDP and emissions intensity of economies? Is there a link between fluctuations in economic activity and fluctuations in emissions? These questions are crucial to understand the extent and composition of cost uncertainty under emissions trading schemes, the degree to which it can be reduced by mechanism design options such asintensity targets, and for calibrating models of emissions trading under uncertainty.This paper provides empirical analyses, using historical emissions data in forecast models and in country-level analysis over time. The results indicate that uncertainty about future energy sector CO2 emissions and emissions intensity is greater than uncertainty about future GDP; that uncertainties are greater in non-OECD than in OECD countries; and that there is a strong positive correlation between fluctuations in GDP and fluctuations in CO2 emissions, but not in all cases and not outside the energy sector.Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity targets; forecasting.Uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; GDP; emissions intensity; intensity

Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India

Part 1 of the paper reviews recent trends in fossil fuel use and associated externalities. It also argues that the recent run-up in international oil prices reflects growing concerns about supply constraints associated with declining spare capacity in OPEC, refining bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than growing incremental use of oil by China and India. Part 2 compares two business as usual scenarios with a set of alternate scenarios based on policy interventions on the demand for or supply of energy and different assumptions about rigidities in domestic and international energy markets. The results suggest that energy externalities are likely to worsen significantly if there is no shift in China's and India's energy strategies. High energy demand from China and India could constrain some developing countries'growth through higher prices on international energy markets, but for others the"growth retarding"effects of higher energy prices are partially or fully offset by the"growth stimulating"effects of the larger markets in China and India. Given that there are many inefficiencies in the energy system in both China and India, there is an opportunity to reduce energy growth without adversely affecting GDPgrowth. The cost of a decarbonizing energy strategy will be higher for China and India than a fossil fuel-based strategy, but the net present value of delaying the shift will be higher than acting now. The less fossil fuel dependent alternative strategies provide additional dividends in terms of energy security.Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Transport Economics Policy&Planning

Carbon emissions of cities from a consumption perspective

Carbon emission inventories are the foundations of climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities. In this study, we estimated production-based CO2 emissions from fossil energy combustion and industrial processes for eleven cities in China in 2012 and used input-output theory to measure their consumption-based CO2 emissions. By comprehensively comparing production- and consumption-based emissions, six developed cities were consumption-based cities with import-depended trade pattern, while the other five were production-based cities which were mostly in medium size and might transform into consumption-based cities with socioeconomic development. Emissions from imports accounted for over 50% in consumption-based emissions in most cities, which shows the significance of interregional cooperation in tackling climate change. From the perspective of final use, emissions caused by fixed capital formation occupied first in most cities, which was determined by their economic development models

How would big data support societal development and environmental sustainability? Insights and practices

The theme of this Special Volume (SV) focuses on improving natural resource management and human health to ensure sustainable societal development. Natural resources have been exploited unduly regardless of the consequences, which has resulted in inappropriate management natural resources and has caused severe environmental degradation. Contributions in this SV addressed improved environmental management, utilization, and allocation of natural resources; evaluation of sustainable natural resource management; pollution prevention and treatment; and evaluation and suggestions for improved natural resource-related policies. The authors presented an inspiring panorama of the initiatives that have been developed throughout the world for sustainable natural resource management and improve societal development. Theoretically, new approaches to bridge the gaps between the economic development and environmental protection were increasingly dominant. Empirically, many of the papers provided case studies of regions in China and other regions. The authorship reflected growing collaboration between researchers from many different countries or universities. While the great diversity of contributions on the topic reflected the wealth of insights generated on the topic in recent years, there is much more that must be done to achieve societal sustainability in natural resource management.No Full Tex

Consumption-Based Adjustment of China's Emissions-Intensity Targets: An Analysis of its Potential Economic Effects

China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants, and by the AXA Research Fund which is supporting Marco Springmann's doctoral research. We further thank Eni S.p.A., ICF International, Shell International Limited, and the French Development Agency (AFD), founding sponsors of the China Energy and Climate Project. We also grateful for support provided by the Social Science Key Research Program from National Social Science Foundation, China of Grant No. 09&ZD029 and by Rio Tinto China. We would further like to thank John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Henry Jacoby and Audrey Resutek for helpful comments, discussion and edits

Green, Clean, and Mean? China’s Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa Economy

This dissertation is an investigative study that utilized the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model that examines the impact of China’s Foreign Direct Investment on the environment and economy of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In evaluating this impact, 43 SSA countries were analyzed and subdivided into various income levels; three arguments were proposed and tested.First is China’s FDI in SSA, “green.” Does China’s FDI lead to sustainable growth and development for the environment in SSA.? Second, does China’s FDI clean up pollution through the reduction of Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions? Lastly, does it lead to economic growth and development in SSA? The results of this analysis confirm and are consistent with other research findings that China is neither green nor clean but may lead to economic growth in the SSA, however statistically insignificant. Conversely, this research also proves that variables like education, government expenditure, and population growth lead to statistically significant economic growth. Furthermore, using the Granger Causality, it would be proved that GDP growth and CO2 emissions cause China’s FDI into SSA

Revealing the Political Decision Toward Chinese Carbon Abatement: Based on Equity and Efficiency Criteria

China\u27s economic reform over the past 30 years has allowed the free market to drive economic development. However, government still plays a key role in the energy sector by allocating energy conservation and emissions abatement. How does the government make an equity decision as a tradeoff to market efficiency? This is an unanswered question. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the government\u27s preference toward equity and efficiency. Using the provincial level CO2 intensity allocation data, we investigate the political decision that the government made based on the equity and efficiency criteria. We find that the equity index plays a more important role than the efficiency index in determining the CO2 intensity target. In addition, political factors such as social stability are found to be important factors

China’s Energy Situation and Its Implications in the New Millennium

Many are interested in China’s energy situation, however, numerous energy related issues in China still remain unanswered. For example, what are the potential forces driving energy demand and supply? Previous reviews focused only on fossil fuel based energy and ignored other important elements including renewable and ‘clean’ energy sources. The work presented here is intended to fill this gap by bringing the research on fossil-based and renewable energy economic studies together and identifying the potential drivers behind both energy demand and supply to provide a complete picture of China’s energy situation in the new millennium. This will be of interest to anyone concerned with the development of China’s economy in general, and in particular with its energy economy.China China; Energy; Fossil fuels; Renewable Energy