9,793 research outputs found

    One Small Step for Generative AI, One Giant Leap for AGI: A Complete Survey on ChatGPT in AIGC Era

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    OpenAI has recently released GPT-4 (a.k.a. ChatGPT plus), which is demonstrated to be one small step for generative AI (GAI), but one giant leap for artificial general intelligence (AGI). Since its official release in November 2022, ChatGPT has quickly attracted numerous users with extensive media coverage. Such unprecedented attention has also motivated numerous researchers to investigate ChatGPT from various aspects. According to Google scholar, there are more than 500 articles with ChatGPT in their titles or mentioning it in their abstracts. Considering this, a review is urgently needed, and our work fills this gap. Overall, this work is the first to survey ChatGPT with a comprehensive review of its underlying technology, applications, and challenges. Moreover, we present an outlook on how ChatGPT might evolve to realize general-purpose AIGC (a.k.a. AI-generated content), which will be a significant milestone for the development of AGI.Comment: A Survey on ChatGPT and GPT-4, 29 pages. Feedback is appreciated ([email protected]

    Quantifying and Explaining Machine Learning Uncertainty in Predictive Process Monitoring: An Operations Research Perspective

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    This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The proposed framework adeptly addresses common limitations of existing solutions, such as the neglect of data-driven estimation for vital production parameters, exclusive generation of point forecasts without considering model uncertainty, and lacking explanations regarding the sources of such uncertainty. Our approach employs Quantile Regression Forests for generating interval predictions, alongside both local and global variants of SHapley Additive Explanations for the examined predictive process monitoring problem. The practical applicability of the proposed methodology is substantiated through a real-world production planning case study, emphasizing the potential of prescriptive analytics in refining decision-making procedures. This paper accentuates the imperative of addressing these challenges to fully harness the extensive and rich data resources accessible for well-informed decision-making

    A Decision Support System for Economic Viability and Environmental Impact Assessment of Vertical Farms

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    Vertical farming (VF) is the practice of growing crops or animals using the vertical dimension via multi-tier racks or vertically inclined surfaces. In this thesis, I focus on the emerging industry of plant-specific VF. Vertical plant farming (VPF) is a promising and relatively novel practice that can be conducted in buildings with environmental control and artificial lighting. However, the nascent sector has experienced challenges in economic viability, standardisation, and environmental sustainability. Practitioners and academics call for a comprehensive financial analysis of VPF, but efforts are stifled by a lack of valid and available data. A review of economic estimation and horticultural software identifies a need for a decision support system (DSS) that facilitates risk-empowered business planning for vertical farmers. This thesis proposes an open-source DSS framework to evaluate business sustainability through financial risk and environmental impact assessments. Data from the literature, alongside lessons learned from industry practitioners, would be centralised in the proposed DSS using imprecise data techniques. These techniques have been applied in engineering but are seldom used in financial forecasting. This could benefit complex sectors which only have scarce data to predict business viability. To begin the execution of the DSS framework, VPF practitioners were interviewed using a mixed-methods approach. Learnings from over 19 shuttered and operational VPF projects provide insights into the barriers inhibiting scalability and identifying risks to form a risk taxonomy. Labour was the most commonly reported top challenge. Therefore, research was conducted to explore lean principles to improve productivity. A probabilistic model representing a spectrum of variables and their associated uncertainty was built according to the DSS framework to evaluate the financial risk for VF projects. This enabled flexible computation without precise production or financial data to improve economic estimation accuracy. The model assessed two VPF cases (one in the UK and another in Japan), demonstrating the first risk and uncertainty quantification of VPF business models in the literature. The results highlighted measures to improve economic viability and the viability of the UK and Japan case. The environmental impact assessment model was developed, allowing VPF operators to evaluate their carbon footprint compared to traditional agriculture using life-cycle assessment. I explore strategies for net-zero carbon production through sensitivity analysis. Renewable energies, especially solar, geothermal, and tidal power, show promise for reducing the carbon emissions of indoor VPF. Results show that renewably-powered VPF can reduce carbon emissions compared to field-based agriculture when considering the land-use change. The drivers for DSS adoption have been researched, showing a pathway of compliance and design thinking to overcome the ‘problem of implementation’ and enable commercialisation. Further work is suggested to standardise VF equipment, collect benchmarking data, and characterise risks. This work will reduce risk and uncertainty and accelerate the sector’s emergence

    Mathematical models to evaluate the impact of increasing serotype coverage in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

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    Of over 100 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, only 7 were included in the first pneumo- coccal conjugate vaccine (PCV). While PCV reduced the disease incidence, in part because of a herd immunity effect, a replacement effect was observed whereby disease was increasingly caused by serotypes not included in the vaccine. Dynamic transmission models can account for these effects to describe post-vaccination scenarios, whereas economic evaluations can enable decision-makers to compare vaccines of increasing valency for implementation. This thesis has four aims. First, to explore the limitations and assumptions of published pneu- mococcal models and the implications for future vaccine formulation and policy. Second, to conduct a trend analysis assembling all the available evidence for serotype replacement in Europe, North America and Australia to characterise invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by vaccine-type (VT) and non-vaccine-types (NVT) serotypes. The motivation behind this is to assess the patterns of relative abundance in IPD cases pre- and post-vaccination, to examine country-level differences in relation to the vaccines employed over time since introduction, and to assess the growth of the replacement serotypes in comparison with the serotypes targeted by the vaccine. The third aim is to use a Bayesian framework to estimate serotype-specific invasiveness, i.e. the rate of invasive disease given carriage. This is useful for dynamic transmission modelling, as transmission is through carriage but a majority of serotype-specific pneumococcal data lies in active disease surveillance. This is also helpful to address whether serotype replacement reflects serotypes that are more invasive or whether serotypes in a specific location are equally more invasive than in other locations. Finally, the last aim of this thesis is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of increas- ing serotype coverage in PCVs using a dynamic transmission model. Together, the results highlight that though there are key parameter uncertainties that merit further exploration, divergence in serotype replacement and inconsistencies in invasiveness on a country-level may make a universal PCV suboptimal.Open Acces

    The determinants of value addition: a crtitical analysis of global software engineering industry in Sri Lanka

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    It was evident through the literature that the perceived value delivery of the global software engineering industry is low due to various facts. Therefore, this research concerns global software product companies in Sri Lanka to explore the software engineering methods and practices in increasing the value addition. The overall aim of the study is to identify the key determinants for value addition in the global software engineering industry and critically evaluate the impact of them for the software product companies to help maximise the value addition to ultimately assure the sustainability of the industry. An exploratory research approach was used initially since findings would emerge while the study unfolds. Mixed method was employed as the literature itself was inadequate to investigate the problem effectively to formulate the research framework. Twenty-three face-to-face online interviews were conducted with the subject matter experts covering all the disciplines from the targeted organisations which was combined with the literature findings as well as the outcomes of the market research outcomes conducted by both government and nongovernment institutes. Data from the interviews were analysed using NVivo 12. The findings of the existing literature were verified through the exploratory study and the outcomes were used to formulate the questionnaire for the public survey. 371 responses were considered after cleansing the total responses received for the data analysis through SPSS 21 with alpha level 0.05. Internal consistency test was done before the descriptive analysis. After assuring the reliability of the dataset, the correlation test, multiple regression test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) test were carried out to fulfil the requirements of meeting the research objectives. Five determinants for value addition were identified along with the key themes for each area. They are staffing, delivery process, use of tools, governance, and technology infrastructure. The cross-functional and self-organised teams built around the value streams, employing a properly interconnected software delivery process with the right governance in the delivery pipelines, selection of tools and providing the right infrastructure increases the value delivery. Moreover, the constraints for value addition are poor interconnection in the internal processes, rigid functional hierarchies, inaccurate selections and uses of tools, inflexible team arrangements and inadequate focus for the technology infrastructure. The findings add to the existing body of knowledge on increasing the value addition by employing effective processes, practices and tools and the impacts of inaccurate applications the same in the global software engineering industry

    Playing and Making History: How Game Design and Gameplay Afford Opportunities for a Critical Engagement with the Past

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    For decades there has been a call for educators to explore new possibilities for meeting educational goals defined broadly under a number of 'twenty-first century competencies' curricula (Dede, 2014; Voogt et al., 2013). These stress the need for students to combine critical skills development with an understanding of the processes and reach of technologies in daily life, in order to prepare them for a shifting cultural and economic landscape. In response, an extensive literature has grown up about game-based learning (Brown, 2008; de Castell, 2011; Gee, 2003; Gee and Hayes, 2011; Jenson, Taylor, de Castell, 2011; Jenson et al., 2016; Kafai, 1995; 2012; 2016; Prensky, 2001; Squire, 2004; 2011; Steinkuehler, 2006) that seeks to explore whether/how games can be used productively in education. History as a discipline lends itself particularly well to game-based learning. It is bound up in questions of interpretation, agency, and choice, considerations that gameplay and game design as processes highlight well. My research explores the uses of digital historical games in history education, and most especially in the acquisition of critical historical skills. These skills are defined as the capacity to view and engage with the constitutive parts of historical scholarship and objects: interpretation, argument, evidence, ideology, subject position, class, race, sex, etc. This thesis will present findings from two participant-based research studies that I organized and ran between 2018 and 2019. In the first, participants were tasked with playing a counterfactual historical game, Fallout 4, and talking about their experiences, as well as answering questions about history and historical understandings. The second study took the form of an interactive digital history course. In it, students, working in small groups, were tasked with creating their own historical games. Exploring both gameplay and game production answers the call issued by Kafai and Burke (2016) that researchers should view the potential for games in education holistically, rather than in either/or terms. Taken together, this thesis argues that playing and especially making historical games offers opportunities for learners to engage with epistemological concepts in history in meaningful ways that can advance their critical understanding of history as a subject

    Graphical scaffolding for the learning of data wrangling APIs

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    In order for students across the sciences to avail themselves of modern data streams, they must first know how to wrangle data: how to reshape ill-organised, tabular data into another format, and how to do this programmatically, in languages such as Python and R. Despite the cross-departmental demand and the ubiquity of data wrangling in analytical workflows, the research on how to optimise the instruction of it has been minimal. Although data wrangling as a programming domain presents distinctive challenges - characterised by on-the-fly syntax lookup and code example integration - it also presents opportunities. One such opportunity is how tabular data structures are easily visualised. To leverage the inherent visualisability of data wrangling, this dissertation evaluates three types of graphics that could be employed as scaffolding for novices: subgoal graphics, thumbnail graphics, and parameter graphics. Using a specially built e-learning platform, this dissertation documents a multi-institutional, randomised, and controlled experiment that investigates the pedagogical effects of these. Our results indicate that the graphics are well-received, that subgoal graphics boost the completion rate, and that thumbnail graphics improve navigability within a command menu. We also obtained several non-significant results, and indications that parameter graphics are counter-productive. We will discuss these findings in the context of general scaffolding dilemmas, and how they fit into a wider research programme on data wrangling instruction

    Industry 4.0: product digital twins for remanufacturing decision-making

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    Currently there is a desire to reduce natural resource consumption and expand circular business principles whilst Industry 4.0 (I4.0) is regarded as the evolutionary and potentially disruptive movement of technology, automation, digitalisation, and data manipulation into the industrial sector. The remanufacturing industry is recognised as being vital to the circular economy (CE) as it extends the in-use life of products, but its synergy with I4.0 has had little attention thus far. This thesis documents the first investigating into I4.0 in remanufacturing for a CE contributing a design and demonstration of a model that optimises remanufacturing planning using data from different instances in a product’s life cycle. The initial aim of this work was to identify the I4.0 technology that would enhance the stability in remanufacturing with a view to reducing resource consumption. As the project progressed it narrowed to focus on the development of a product digital twin (DT) model to support data-driven decision making for operations planning. The model’s architecture was derived using a bottom-up approach where requirements were extracted from the identified complications in production planning and control that differentiate remanufacturing from manufacturing. Simultaneously, the benefits of enabling visibility of an asset’s through-life health were obtained using a DT as the modus operandi. A product simulator and DT prototype was designed to use Internet of Things (IoT) components, a neural network for remaining life estimations and a search algorithm for operational planning optimisation. The DT was iteratively developed using case studies to validate and examine the real opportunities that exist in deploying a business model that harnesses, and commodifies, early life product data for end-of-life processing optimisation. Findings suggest that using intelligent programming networks and algorithms, a DT can enhance decision-making if it has visibility of the product and access to reliable remanufacturing process information, whilst existing IoT components provide rudimentary “smart” capabilities, but their integration is complex, and the durability of the systems over extended product life cycles needs to be further explored

    Developing automated meta-research approaches in the preclinical Alzheimer's disease literature

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    Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating neurodegenerative disorder for which there is no cure. A crucial part of the drug development pipeline involves testing therapeutic interventions in animal disease models. However, promising findings in preclinical experiments have not translated into clinical trial success. Reproducibility has often been cited as a major issue affecting biomedical research, where experimental results in one laboratory cannot be replicated in another. By using meta-research (research on research) approaches such as systematic reviews, researchers aim to identify and summarise all available evidence relating to a specific research question. By conducting a meta-analysis, researchers can also combine the results from different experiments statistically to understand the overall effect of an intervention and to explore reasons for variations seen across different publications. Systematic reviews of the preclinical Alzheimer’s disease literature could inform decision making, encourage research improvement, and identify gaps in the literature to guide future research. However, due to the vast amount of potentially useful evidence from animal models of Alzheimer’s disease, it remains difficult to make sense of and utilise this data effectively. Systematic reviews are common practice within evidence based medicine, yet their application to preclinical research is often limited by the time and resources required. In this thesis, I develop, build-upon, and implement automated meta-research approaches to collect, curate, and evaluate the preclinical Alzheimer’s literature. I searched several biomedical databases to obtain all research relevant to Alzheimer’s disease. I developed a novel deduplication tool to automatically identify and remove duplicate publications identified across different databases with minimal human effort. I trained a crowd of reviewers to annotate a subset of the publications identified and used this data to train a machine learning algorithm to screen through the remaining publications for relevance. I developed text-mining tools to extract model, intervention, and treatment information from publications and I improved existing automated tools to extract reported measures to reduce the risk of bias. Using these tools, I created a categorised database of research in transgenic Alzheimer’s disease animal models and created a visual summary of this dataset on an interactive, openly accessible online platform. Using the techniques described, I also identified relevant publications within the categorised dataset to perform systematic reviews of two key outcomes of interest in transgenic Alzheimer’s disease models: (1) synaptic plasticity and transmission in hippocampal slices and (2) motor activity in the open field test. Over 400,000 publications were identified across biomedical research databases, with 230,203 unique publications. In a performance evaluation across different preclinical datasets, the automated deduplication tool I developed could identify over 97% of duplicate citations and a had an error rate similar to that of human performance. When evaluated on a test set of publications, the machine learning classifier trained to identify relevant research in transgenic models performed was highly sensitive (captured 96.5% of relevant publications) and excluded 87.8% of irrelevant publications. Tools to identify the model(s) and outcome measure(s) within the full-text of publications may reduce the burden on reviewers and were found to be more sensitive than searching only the title and abstract of citations. Automated tools to assess risk of bias reporting were highly sensitive and could have the potential to monitor research improvement over time. The final dataset of categorised Alzheimer’s disease research contained 22,375 publications which were then visualised in the interactive web application. Within the application, users can see how many publications report measures to reduce the risk of bias and how many have been classified as using each transgenic model, testing each intervention, and measuring each outcome. Users can also filter to obtain curated lists of relevant research, allowing them to perform systematic reviews at an accelerated pace with reduced effort required to search across databases, and a reduced number of publications to screen for relevance. Both systematic reviews and meta-analyses highlighted failures to report key methodological information within publications. Poor transparency of reporting limited the statistical power I had to understand the sources of between-study variation. However, some variables were found to explain a significant proportion of the heterogeneity. Transgenic animal model had a significant impact on results in both reviews. For certain open field test outcomes, wall colour of the open field arena and the reporting of measures to reduce the risk of bias were found to impact results. For in vitro electrophysiology experiments measuring synaptic plasticity, several electrophysiology parameters, including magnesium concentration of the recording solution, were found to explain a significant proportion of the heterogeneity. Automated meta-research approaches and curated web platforms summarising preclinical research could have the potential to accelerate the conduct of systematic reviews and maximise the potential of existing evidence to inform translation

    Investigative Methods: An NCRM Innovation Collection

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    This Innovation Collection on investigative methods brings together investigators working in different domains, sectors, and on different topics of interest to help capture the breadth, scope and relevance of investigative practices over 10 substantive chapters. Each of the papers presents a different investigative method or set of methods and, through case studies, attempts to demonstrate their value. All the contributions, in different ways and for different purposes, seek to reconstruct acts, events, practices, biographies and/or milieux, to which the researchers in question lack direct access, but which they want to reconstruct via the traces those phenomena leave behind, traces themselves often produced as part of the phenomena under investigation. These include reports of methods used in investigations on: - The use of force by state actors, including into police violence, military decisions to attack civilians, the provenance of munitions used to attack civilians, and the use and abuse of tear gas; - Networks of far-right discourse, and its links to criminal attacks and state-leveraged misinformation campaigns; - Archives to establish the penal biographies of convicts and the historical practices of democratic petitioning; - Corporate structures and processes that enable tax avoidance and an avoidance of legal responsibilities to workers and the environment. A working principle of the collection is that investigative methods may be considered, alongside creative, qualitative, quantitative, digital, participatory and mixed methods, a distinct yet complementary style of research
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