Protection optimale des réseaux logistiques contre des attaques

L’évolution des réseaux logistiques s'accompagne du risque inquiétant d'attaques intentionnelles et ils deviennent de plus en plus des cibles potentielles. Il est donc essentiel de les protéger contre ces attaques. Cette thèse développe une méthode d’allocation optimale des ressources de défense des entités de réseaux logistiques contre des attaques intentionnelles, dans le contexte de l’optimisation de la localisation des installations. Cette méthode permet de calculer les dégâts, d’évaluer la valeur d'une cible critique et de répartir de façon optimale des ressources limitées de défense, et ce, en tenant compte de la stratégie de l’attaquant. Trois cas de réseaux logistiques sont étudiés dans cette thèse. Nous considérons tout d’abord le contexte de localisation d’installations à capacité illimitée où une stratégie de protection optimale est sélectionnée. Ensuite, la notion de capacité supplémentaire est utilisée comme moyen de protection indirecte, permettant de réduire le dommage encouru. Enfin, comme l'efficacité d’un réseau logistique est largement déterminée par le bon fonctionnement des entrepôts, ces derniers sont également protégés de la même façon que les usines. Alors que l’objectif du défendeur est de minimiser les dégâts, l’attaquant va chercher à maximiser ces dégâts. Dans les trois cas considérés, le problème sera défini comme un jeu non coopératif min-max à deux périodes dans lequel le défendeur joue en premier. Cela signifie que le défendeur choisit une stratégie à la première période qui minimise le dégât maximal que l’attaquant pourrait causer à la seconde période. Dans le but d’estimer les utilités des joueurs, la méthode proposée évalue l’espérance mathématique de plusieurs coûts : le coût nécessaire à la restauration des installations endommagées, les coûts encourus en raison de l'augmentation possible des coûts de transport suite à des attaques, et le coût dû à une rupture de stock. Un algorithme est développé afin de déterminer la solution d'équilibre et la stratégie de défense optimale. Dans chacun des cas étudiés, notre méthode est comparée à d'autres stratégies. Les résultats obtenus montrent clairement l’efficacité de notre modèle et l’apport de la capacité supplémentaire comme moyen de protection indirecte, ainsi que l’importance de protéger les entrepôts.The evolution of logistic networks is accompanied by the worrisome risk of intentional attacks and these networks increasingly become potential targets. It is essential to protect them against these attacks. This thesis develops a method for the optimal allocation of defensive resources among the entities’ logistic networks to protect against intentional attacks in the context of facility location optimization. This method is developed to calculate the expected damage, evaluate the value of a critical target and optimally distribute the limited defensive resources, taking the attacker’s strategy into account. Three cases of logistics networks are studied in this thesis. We first of all consider the context of the uncapacitated fixed-charge location where a strategy of optimal protection is selected. Then, extra-capacity is used as a means for indirect protection, allowing the reduction of the expected damage. Lastly, as the efficiency and effectiveness in any logistics network is largely determined by the correct operation of the warehouses, the latter are also protected in the same way as the plants. Whereas the defender’s objective is to minimize the damage, the attacker seeks to maximize this damage. In the three cases considered the problem formulation as a two-period game where the defender invests in the first period. This means that the defender selects a strategy in the first period that minimizes the maximum loss the attacker may cause in the second period. A method is developed to evaluate the utilities of the players. This method evaluates many expected costs, including the cost needed to restore disabled facilities, the backorder cost, and the cost incurred because of the change in transportation costs after attacks. An algorithm is developed to find the equilibrium solution and the optimal defence strategy. Our method is compared to other suggested strategies. Obtained results clearly indicate the effectiveness of our model and the indirect protection by extra-capacity deployment, as well as the importance of protecting the warehouses

Conflict, food insecurity, and globalization:

"We explore how globalization, broadly conceived to include international humanrights norms, humanitarianism, and alternative trade, might influence peaceful and foodsecure outlooks and outcomes. The paper draws on our previous work on conflict as a cause and effect of hunger and also looks at agricultural exports as war commodities. We review studies on the relationships between (1) conflict and food insecurity, (2) conflict and globalization, and (3) globalization and food insecurity. Next, we analyze countrylevel, historical contexts where export crops, such as coffee and cotton, have been implicated in triggering and perpetuating conflict. These cases suggest that it is not export cropping per se, but production and trade structures and food and financial policy contexts that determine peaceful or belligerent outcomes. Export cropping appears to contribute to conflict when fluctuating prices destabilize household and national incomes and when revenues fund hostilities. Also, in these scenarios, governments have not taken steps to progressively realize the right to adequate food or to reduce hunger and poverty. We conclude by exploring implications for agricultural development, trade, and human rights policies." Authors' AbstractHunger, Conflict, war, Globalization, Crops, exports, coffee, Cotton, Human rights, Right to food, Fair trade,

The development of the methodology and measurement of poverty indicators in the Jordanian Social Studies (1973-2013)

This study aimed to identify the local experiences of determining the most important index of poverty in Jordan by reviewing the international literature. It also aims to summarize a sample of the major studies dealing with poverty in Jordan, identify the methodology and ways of measuring poverty and its indicators to coordinate efforts and reach to a clearer picture of poverty than the one provided by the studies of poverty in Jordan during four decades : 1973-2012 . To achieve these objectives, this study summarizes the methodologies and global methods of measuring poverty in Jordan, and clarifies the pros and cons of each methodology. The most important findings of the study include that there are several ways and methodologies pursued by the previous studies in Jordan that led to a difference in the results of these studies and a difficulty in interpreting its findings and recommendations and making comparisons over time and comparisons with other countries.

Global restructuring and local anti-poverty action: learning from European experimental programms

Este trabalho discute como os Municípios podem reforçar o seu contributo para a luta contra a pobreza num contexto mundial de reestruturação global. Em primeiro lugar, começa por introduzir a relevância da ‘transição paradigmática’ nas ciências sociais no âmbito da luta contra a pobreza e apresenta o contributo do realismo ‘crítico’ como possível quadro de referência epistemológico para a coerência e legitimidade científica do trabalho a desenvolver. Seguidamente, o trabalho propõe um modo de conceptualizar a luta contra a pobreza. Conceitos como ‘pobreza’, ‘necessidaddes básicas’, ‘agência e estrutura’, ‘localidade’ e ‘integração económica’ são discutidos e o seu conteúdo definido com rigor. Em terceiro lugar, o desenvolvimento teórico do trabalho oferece uma perspectiva de diferentes contributos na explicação do processo de ‘reestruturação global’, desenvolvimento local e planeamento territorial. A mudança contemporânea é explicada como transição para um regime de ‘acumulação flexível’, é desenvolvida uma teoria de ‘subdesenvolvimento local’ orientada para a acção e é apresentada uma teoria de planeamento como ‘empowering dialogue’ oferecendo em conjunto um quadro de referência coerente onde situar a acção Municipal na luta contra a pobreza. Finalmente, com base na ‘síntese realista’ diversos programas ‘experimentais’ de iniciativa Europeia e respectivos exercícios de avaliação são ‘revisitados’ e ‘lições’ são retiradas. Estes programas oferecem muitos exemplos de possíveis formas de concretização da acção. A relevância dos seus resultados é assegurada pelo quadro epistemológico, conceptual e teórico deste trabalho. É possível discutir a dependência conceptual e contextual das ‘ideias potencialmente migrantes’ e que podem ser consideradas como resultando das aprendizagens proporcionadas pelos programas. Também é foi possível discutir a sua contribuição para a legitimidade de mensagens-chave e implicações de política e propor algumas perspectivas para futuros desenvolvimentos do trabalho agora apresentado.This work discusses how Municipalities can improve their contribution to anti-poverty action in a context of global restructuring. First, it starts by introducing the relevance of the ‘paradigmatic transition’ in the social sciences to anti-poverty action and presents the contribution of ‘critical’ realism as a possible framework for ensuring coherence to the work to be developed. Second, the work proposes a way of conceptualising anti-poverty action. Concepts such as ‘poverty’, ‘basic-needs’, ‘agency and structure’, ‘locality’ and ‘economic integration’ are discussed and defined with precision. Third, the theoretical development of the work offers an overview of contributions aiming to explain ‘global restructuring’, local development and territorial planning and discusses their relevance to anti-poverty action. Contemporary change is explained as a transition to ‘flexible accumulation’, an action-oriented theory of ‘local underdevelopment’ is developed and territorial planning as an ‘empowering dialogue’ is presented offering a coherent framework where to situate Municipal anti-poverty action. Finally, on the basis of ‘realist synthesis’ several European experimental programmes and their evaluation exercises are ‘revisited’ and ‘lessons’ are learned. These programmes offer many examples of action possibilities and enable the identification of policy implications. The relevance of their outcomes is given by the epistemological, conceptual and theoretical framework of this work. It was possible to discuss the ‘concept-dependent’ and ‘contextdependent’ relevance of the potential ‘migrating ideas’ learned from experimental action. It was also possible to discuss their contribution to the legitimacy of key-messages and policy implications and propose some different perspectives for future developments of the work presented now.ISCT

Urban food strategies in Central and Eastern Europe: what's specific and what's at stake?

Integrating a larger set of instruments into Rural Development Programmes implied an increasing focus on monitoring and evaluation. Against the highly diversified experience with regard to implementation of policy instruments the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework has been set up by the EU Commission as a strategic and streamlined method of evaluating programmes’ impacts. Its indicator-based approach mainly reflects the concept of a linear, measure-based intervention logic that falls short of the true nature of RDP operation and impact capacity on rural changes. Besides the different phases of the policy process, i.e. policy design, delivery and evaluation, the regional context with its specific set of challenges and opportunities seems critical to the understanding and improvement of programme performance. In particular the role of local actors can hardly be grasped by quantitative indicators alone, but has to be addressed by assessing processes of social innovation. This shift in the evaluation focus underpins the need to take account of regional implementation specificities and processes of social innovation as decisive elements for programme performance.

Assessing vulnerability and modelling assistance: using demographic indicators of vulnerability and agent-based modelling to explore emergency flooding relief response

Flooding is a significant concern for much of the UK and is recognised as a primary threat by most local councils. Those in society most often deemed vulnerable: the elderly, poor or sick, for example, often see their level of vulnerability increase during hazard events. A greater knowledge of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within communities is key to understanding how a population may be impacted by a hazard event. Vulnerability indices are regularly used – in conjunction with needs assessments and on-the-ground research – to target service provision and justify resource allocation. Past work on measuring and mapping vulnerability has been limited by a focus on income-related indicators, a lack of consideration of accessibility, and the reliance on proprietary data. The Open Source Vulnerability Index (OSVI) encompasses an extensive range of vulnerability indicators supported by the wider literature and expert validation and provides data at a sufficiently fine resolution that can identify vulnerable populations. Findings of the OSVI demonstrate the potential cascading impact of a flood hazard as it impacts an already vulnerable population: exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, limiting capabilities and restricting accessibility and access to key services. The OSVI feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that explores the capacity of the British Red Cross (BRC) to distribute relief during flood emergencies using strategies based upon the OSVI. A participatory modelling approach was utilised whereby the BRC were included in all aspects of the model development. The major contribution of this work is the novel synthesis of demographics analysis, vulnerability mapping and geospatial simulation. The project contributes to the growing understanding of vulnerability and response management within the NGO sector. It is hoped that the index and model produced will allow responder organisations to run simulations of similar emergency events and adjust strategic response plans accordingly

Carbon markets and the production of climate change: Appropriating, commodifying and capitalising nature

This thesis evaluates the efficacy of carbon markets by assessing the impacts of the EU ETS and its links with the Kyoto Protocol’s flexibility mechanisms, the CDM and JI, on the socio-ecological, economic and political dimensions of climate change. The analysis of the relationship between the causes of climate change and the pollution movements, financial practices and policy debates that constitute these markets is developed by progressively introducing Marxist conceptions of the appropriation, commodification and capitalisation of nature, which organises the thesis in to three parts. The first part develops a critical understanding of the social relations, institutions and actors that produce climate change by appropriating carbon in capitalist economies. Mapping the organisation of capital and carbon to create a database of companies in the EU ETS reveals a concentration and centralisation of emissions among a relatively small number of publicly and privately owned corporations and large-scale power and manufacturing plants. The second part considers the processes that equalise differentiated relationships between installations and emissions, and offset projects and emissions reductions, in commodity form. Case studies of carbon allowance and credit networks associated with energy utilities RWE and E.ON illustrate the potential for the largest polluters to exploit unevenness in the production of climate change by trading transformative for marginal climate actions. The final part examines dynamics of accumulation and contestation in carbon markets in terms of the extent to which the capitalisation of carbon can support the expanded reproduction of capitalism. The crisis of the carbon market accumulation strategy and consolidation of the EU ETS in contestation over its reform are explained as outcomes of the contradictions faced by states in managing marketised environmental policy. Overall, the thesis argues that the EU ETS and its links with the Kyoto mechanisms have worked to entrench the production of climate change, necessitating a more efficacious and democratic approach to climate policy that directly targets the biggest corporate and state polluters