Lessons Learned and Next Steps in Energy Efficiency Measurement and Attribution: Energy Savings, Net to Gross, Non-Energy Benefits, and Persistence of Energy Efficiency Behavior

This white paper examines four topics addressing evaluation, measurement, and attribution of direct and indirect effects to energy efficiency and behavioral programs: Estimates of program savings (gross); Net savings derivation through free ridership / net to gross analyses; Indirect non-energy benefits / impacts (e.g., comfort, convenience, emissions, jobs); and, Persistence of savings

Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A simple two-level MRP system where the product is manufactured for stock was then simulated. Stochastic demand for the final product was generated by two commonly occurring processes and with different variances. Various lot sizing rules were then used to determine the amount of product made and the amount of materials bought in. The results confirm earlier research that the behaviour of lot sizing rules is quite different when there is uncertainty in demand compared to the situation of perfect foresight of demand. The best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. In addition the choice of lot sizing rule between ‘good’ rules such as the EOQ turns out to be relatively less important in reducing unit cost compared to improving forecasting accuracy whatever the cost structure. The effect of demand uncertainty on unit cost for a given service level increases exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also shows how the value of improved forecasting can be analysed by examining the effects of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high forecast error variance, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs

A Balanced Energy Plan for the Interior West

Describes a Balanced Energy Plan for the Interior West region of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. Part of the Hewlett Foundation Energy Series

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method

EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF HEALTH CARE REFORM IN COLOMBIA: FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE

This article presents an evaluation of an ambitious health reform implemented in Colombia during the first half of the nineties. The reform attempted to radically change public provision of health services, by means of the transformation of subsidies to supply (direct transfers to hospitals) into a new scheme of subsidies to demand (transfers targeted at the poorest citizens). Although the percentage of the population having medical care insurance has notably increased, mostly among the poorest, problems of implementation have been numerous. It has not been possible to achieve the transformation of subsidies to supply into subsidies to demand. At the same time, competition has not made it possible to increase the efficiency of many public hospitals, which continue to operate with very low occupation rates, while receiving hefty money transfers. Subsidies increased demand for medical consultations, but have curbed demand for hospitalizations. Nonetheless, subsidies might have adversely affected female´s labor market participation and even household consumption. As a whole, evidence suggests that the health reform has been effective in rationalizing households´ demand for health, but not in rationalizing public supply, and neither in increasing the efficiency of service providers.demand subsidies, targeted social services, instrumental variables

Evaluating the methodology of social experiments

Welfare ; Econometric models

MCA4climate: A Practical Framework for Planning Pro-Development Climate Policy

MCA4climate is a major new UNEP initiative providing 1 Introduction practical assistance to governments in preparing their climate change mitigation and adaptation plans and strategies. It aims to help governments, particularly in developing countries, identify policies and measures that are low cost, environmentally effective and consistent with national development goals. It does this by providing a structured approach to assessing and prioritizing climate-policy options, while taking into consideration associated social, economic, environmental and institutional costs and benefits. In doing so, it seeks to counter the widely held perception that tackling climate change is costly, highlight the potential developmental benefits of addressing climate change and encourage action to that end

Transport Impacts on Land Use: Towards A Practical Understanding for Urban Policy Making – Introduction and Research Plan.

INTRODUCTION This working paper forms a general introduction to an EPSRC CASE research project, presenting the objectives of the research, the rationale behind the study, a summary of some of the results obtained so far, and a plan for the remainder of the research work. The project is due for completion in November 1996. In other words, the project is examining: 1. The current understanding of the nature of the influence that transport has upon activity patterns and land use. Specifically, this is making use of empirical studies of transport impacts on land use, plus behavioural studies of the factors in location choice. 2. Whether this relationship can be adequately represented in a predictive context. This consists of two elements. How the relationship of transport on land use can be studied and 'formalised', and secondly, the ability to use this relationship for estimation of land use response to transport impacts. Use will be made of published modelling studies, plus some original modelling work, using a model constructed for this research. 3. The benefits of predicting transport impacts upon land use to planners involved in strategic land use and transport planning. This is the main objective of the research, and addresses why transport impacts on land use appear to have a minor role in structure planning, why model representations are seldom used, and given a model's predictions, what use will be made of the model results. Initial results from the first round of interviews are given in this paper. There are several themes that underpin this research: The nature of the 'transport on land use' relationship. How far it can he formalised, what we know about it, and how it is best to study it. Strategic planning processes in the UK, how the planning system handles the transport on land use relationship, under what circumstances the relationship is important, and the role of model predictions in the planning process. Whether the remit of 'planning' should examine transport impacts on land use, plus anticipation of the impacts of local government reorganisation. The issue of whether predictive modellmg in this context is an appropriate tool beyond the scope of academic research