Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observations are being used in applications at the nexus of water and food security: crop monitoring in support of G20 global market assessments, water stress early warning for USAID, soil moisture monitoring for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and identifying food security vulnerabilities for climate change assessments for the UN and the UK international development agency. These case studies demonstrate that Earth observations are essential for providing the data and scalability to monitor relevant indicators across space and time, as well as understanding agriculture, the hydrological cycle, and the water-food nexus. The described projects follow the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development policy. We show how working closely with stakeholders is essential for transforming NASA Earth observations into accurate, timely, and relevant information for water-food nexus decision support. We conclude with recommendations for continued efforts in using Earth observations for addressing the water-food nexus and the need to incorporate the role of energy for improved food and water security assessment

Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment of Rainfed Agriculture in the Sudan Using Remote Sensing and GIS: The Case of El Gedaref State

Hitherto, most research conducted to monitor agricultural drought on the African continent has focused only on meteorological aspects, with less attention paid to soil moisture, which describes agricultural drought. Satellite missions dedicated to soil moisture monitoring must be used with caution across various scales. The rainfed sector of Sudan takes great importance due to it is high potential to support national food security. El Gedaref state is significant in Sudan given its potentiality of the agricultural sector under a mechanized system, where crop cultivation supports livelihood sources for about 80% of its population and households, directly through agricultural production and indirectly through labor workforce. The state is an essential rainfed region for sorghum production, located within Sudan's Central Clay Plain (CCP). Enhancing soil moisture estimation is key to boosting the understanding of agricultural drought in the farming lands of Sudan. Soil moisture measuring stations/sensors networks do not exist in the El Gedaref agricultural rainfed sector. The literature shows a significant gap in whether soil moisture is sufficient to meet the estimated water demands of cultivation or the start of the growing season. The purpose of this study is to focus principally on agricultural drought. The soil moisture data retrieved from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission launched by NASA in 2015 were compared against in situ data measurements over the agricultural lands. In situ points (at 5 cm, 10 cm, and 20 cm depths) corresponding to 9×9 km SMAP pixel foot-print are rescaled to conduct a point-to-pixel evaluation of SMAP product over two locations, namely Samsam and Kilo-6, during the rainy season 2018. Four errors were measured; Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE), Mean Absolute Bias Error (MABE), and the coefficient of determination R2. SMAP improve (significantly at the 5% level for SM). The results indicated that the SMAP product meets its soil moisture accuracy requirement at the top 5 cm and in the root zone (10 and 20 cm) depths at Samsam and Kilo-6. SMAP demonstrates higher performance indicated by the high R2 (0.96, 0.88, and 0.97) and (0.85, 0.94, and 0.94) over Samsam and Kilo-6, respectively, and met its accuracy targeted by SMAP retrieval domain at ubRMSE 0.04 m3m-3 or better in all locations, and most minor errors (MBE, MABE, and RMSE). The possibility of using SMAP products was discussed to measure agricultural drought and its impacts on crop growth during various growth stages in both locations and over the CCP entirely. The croplands of El Gedaref are located within the tropical savanna (AW, categorization following the Köppen climate classification), warm semi-arid climate (BSh), and warm desert climate (BWh). The areas of interest are predominantly rainfed agricultural lands, vulnerable to climate change and variability. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), SMAP at the top surface of the soil and the root zone, and Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) derived from SMAP were analyzed against the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that the NDVI val-ues disagree with rainfall patterns at the dekadal scale. At all isohyets, SWDI in the root zone shows a reliable and expected response of capturing seasonal dynamics concerning the vegetation index (NDVI) over warm desert climates during 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. It is concluded that SWDI can be used to monitor agricultural drought better than rainfall data and SMAP data because it deals directly with the available water content of the crops. SWDI monitoring agricultural drought is a promising method for early drought warning, which can be used for agricultural drought risk management in semi-arid climates. The comparison between sorghum yield and the spatially distributed water balance model was assessed according to the length of the growing period. Late maturing (120 days), medium maturing (90-95 days), and early maturing variety (80-85 days). As a straightforward crop water deficit model. An adapted WRSI index was developed to characterize the effect of using different climatic and soil moisture remote sensing input datasets, such as CHIRPS rainfall, SMAP soil moisture at the top 5 cm and the root zone, MODIS actual evapotranspiration on key WRSI index parameters and outputs. Results from the analyses indicated that SMAP best captures season onset and length of the growing period, which are critical for the WRSI index. In addition, short-, medium-, and long-term sorghum cultivar planting scenarios were con-sidered and simulated. It was found that over half of the variability in yield is explained by water stress when the SMAP at root zone dataset is used in the WRSI model (R2=0.59–0.72 for sorghum varieties of 90–120 days growing length). Overall, CHIRPS and SMAP root zone show the highest skill (R2=0.53–0.64 and 0.54–0.56, respectively) in capturing state-level crop yield losses related to seasonal soil moisture deficit, which is critical for drought early warning and agrometeorological risk applications. The results of this study are important and valuable in supporting the continued development and improvement of satellite-based soil moisture sensing to produce higher accuracy soil moisture products in semi-arid regions. The results also highlight the growing awareness among various stakeholders of the impact of drought on crop production and the need to scale up adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse effects of drought

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation, as summarized by Anyamba and Tucker (2012, Chapter 2). Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) (Kogan, 1995) were also developed during this time period and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers like AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through near-daily, synoptic observations of earth’s land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was limited by the relatively few spectral bands on operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short observational record

Remote sensing-based actual evapotranspiration assessment in a data-scarce area of Brazil : a case study of the Urucuia Aquifer System

The large groundwater reserves of the Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) enabled agricultural development and economic growth in the western Bahia State, in northeastern Brazil. Over the last several years, concern has grown around the aquifer’s diminishing water levels, and water balance (WB) studies are in demand. Considering the lack of measured actual evapotranspiration (ETa), a major component of the water cycle, this work uses the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate ETa, and compares it to basin-scale estimates from the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) monthly model and from an annual WB closure method, based on gridded meteorological data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product. Additionally, a comparative assessment of different versions of the SSEBop parameterization was per-formed. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery was used to implement eight different versions of the SSEBop algorithm over the UAS between 2000 and 2013. SSEBop and SMAP ETa yielded similar seasonal patterns, with correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.65, mean difference (MD) of 0.8 mm/month and mean absolute difference (MAD) of 18.5 mm/month. Comparison of SSEBop annual ETa estimates to annual SMAP and WB closure estimates yielded low MD (12.1 and 7.3 mm/year, respectively) and MAD (82.5 and 82.8 mm/year, respectively), but also low r values (0.00 and 0.37, respectively). The comparison of the different SSEBop versions indicated the need to incorporate a calibration step of the aerodynamic heat resistance (rah) parameter. SSEBop results were also used for land cover and drought monitoring. Analysis indicates that agri-culture, associated with an increasing trend of atmospheric evaporative demand, is responsible for the decrease in groundwater levels and streamflow in the studied time period

Earth observation-based operational estimation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration for agricultural crops in support of sustainable water management

Global information on the spatio-temporal variation of parameters driving the Earth’s terrestrial water and energy cycles, such as evapotranspiration (ET) rates and surface soil moisture (SSM), is of key significance. The water and energy cycles underpin global food and water security and need to be fully understood as the climate changes. In the last few decades, Earth Observation (EO) technology has played an increasingly important role in determining both ET and SSM. This paper reviews the state of the art in the use specifically of operational EO of both ET and SSM estimates. We discuss the key technical and operational considerations to derive accurate estimates of those parameters from space. The review suggests significant progress has been made in the recent years in retrieving ET and SSM operationally; yet, further work is required to optimize parameter accuracy and to improve the operational capability of services developed using EO data. Emerging applications on which ET/SSM operational products may be included in the context specifically in relation to agriculture are also highlighted; the operational use of those operational products in such applications remains to be seen

A global near-real-time soil moisture index monitor for food security using integrated SMOS and SMAP

Soil Moisture (SM) is a direct measure of agricultural drought. While there are several global SM indices, none of them directly use SM observations in a near-real-time capacity and as an operational tool. This paper presents a near-real-time global SM index monitor based on integrated SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) remote sensing data. We make use of the short period (2015–2018) of SMAP datasets in combination with two approaches—Cumulative Distribution Function Mapping (CDFM) and Bayesian conditional process—and integrate them with SMOS data in a way that SMOS data is consistent with SMAP. The integrated SMOS and SMAP (SMOS/SMAP) has an increased global revisit frequency and a period of record from 2010 to the present. A four-parameter Beta distribution was fitted to the SMOS/SMAP dataset for each calendar month of each grid cell at ~36 km resolution for the period from 2010 to 2018. We used an asymptotic method that guarantees the values of the bounding parameters of the Beta distribution will envelop both the smallest and largest observed values. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test showed that more grids globally will pass if the integrated dataset is from the Bayesian conditional approach. A daily global SM index map is generated and posted online based on translating each grid's integrated SM value for that day to a corresponding probability percentile relevant to the particular calendar month from 2010 to 2018. For validation, we use the Canadian Prairies Ecozone (CPE). We compare the integrated SM with the SMAP core validation and RISMA sites from ISMN, compare our indices with other models (VIC, ESA's CCI SM v04.4 integrated satellite data, and SPI-1), and make a two-by-two comparison of candidate indices using heat maps and summary CDF statistics. Furthermore, we visually compare our global SM-based index maps with those produced by other organizations. Our Global SM Index Monitor (GSMIM) performed, in many tests, similarly to the CCI's product SM index but with the advantage of being a near-real-time tool, which has applications for identifying evolving drought for food security conditions, insurance, policymaking, and crop planning especially for the remote parts of the globe

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health

Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards

Growth in satellite observations and modelling capabilities has transformed drought monitoring, offering near-real-time information. However, current monitoring efforts focus on hazards rather than impacts, and are further disconnected from drought-related compound or cascading hazards such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods and debris flows. In this Perspective, we advocate for impact-based drought monitoring and integration with broader drought-related hazards. Impact-based monitoring will go beyond top-down hazard information, linking drought to physical or societal impacts such as crop yield, food availability, energy generation or unemployment. This approach, specifically forecasts of drought event impacts, would accordingly benefit multiple stakeholders involved in drought planning, and risk and response management, with clear benefits for food and water security. Yet adoption and implementation is hindered by the absence of consistent drought impact data, limited information on local factors affecting water availability (including water demand, transfer and withdrawal), and impact assessment models being disconnected from drought monitoring tools. Implementation of impact-based drought monitoring thus requires the use of newly available remote sensors, the availability of large volumes of standardized data across drought-related fields, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to extract and synthesize physical and societal drought impacts.</p