Adaptive interpolation of discrete-time signals that can be modeled as autoregressive processes

This paper presents an adaptive algorithm for the restoration of lost sample values in discrete-time signals that can locally be described by means of autoregressive processes. The only restrictions are that the positions of the unknown samples should be known and that they should be embedded in a sufficiently large neighborhood of known samples. The estimates of the unknown samples are obtained by minimizing the sum of squares of the residual errors that involve estimates of the autoregressive parameters. A statistical analysis shows that, for a burst of lost samples, the expected quadratic interpolation error per sample converges to the signal variance when the burst length tends to infinity. The method is in fact the first step of an iterative algorithm, in which in each iteration step the current estimates of the missing samples are used to compute the new estimates. Furthermore, the feasibility of implementation in hardware for real-time use is established. The method has been tested on artificially generated auto-regressive processes as well as on digitized music and speech signals

Cramer–Rao lower bounds for change points in additive and multiplicative noise

The paper addresses the problem of determining the Cramer–Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) for noise and change-point parameters, for steplike signals corrupted by multiplicative and/or additive white noise. Closed-form expressions for the signal and noise CRLBs are first derived for an ideal step with a known change point. For an unknown change-point, the noise-free signal is modeled by a sigmoidal function parametrized by location and step rise parameters. The noise and step change CRLBs corresponding to this model are shown to be well approximated by the more tractable expressions derived for a known change-point. The paper also shows that the step location parameter is asymptotically decoupled from the other parameters, which allows us to derive simple CRLBs for the step location. These bounds are then compared with the corresponding mean square errors of the maximum likelihood estimators in the pure multiplicative case. The comparison illustrates convergence and efficiency of the ML estimator. An extension to colored multiplicative noise is also discussed

Data Improving in Time Series Using ARX and ANN Models

Anomalous data can negatively impact energy forecasting by causing model parameters to be incorrectly estimated. This paper presents two approaches for the detection and imputation of anomalies in time series data. Autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) and artificial neural network (ANN) models are used to extract the characteristics of time series. Anomalies are detected by performing hypothesis testing on the extrema of the residuals, and the anomalous data points are imputed using the ARX and ANN models. Because the anomalies affect the model coefficients, the data cleaning process is performed iteratively. The models are re-learned on “cleaner” data after an anomaly is imputed. The anomalous data are reimputed to each iteration using the updated ARX and ANN models. The ARX and ANN data cleaning models are evaluated on natural gas time series data. This paper demonstrates that the proposed approaches are able to identify and impute anomalous data points. Forecasting models learned on the unclean data and the cleaned data are tested on an uncleaned out-of-sample dataset. The forecasting model learned on the cleaned data outperforms the model learned on the unclean data with 1.67% improvement in the mean absolute percentage errors and a 32.8% improvement in the root mean squared error. Existing challenges include correctly identifying specific types of anomalies such as negative flows