Crop yield prediction with ensemble algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

World cereal production is set to grow by around 1% per year for the next decade, and while crop areas are not expanding, the major driver for the growth production is expected to come from yield improvements. Crop yields have been commonly modelled in two ways: process-based modelling (also known as crop simulation) and statistical modelling. Recently, machine learning started to deliver interesting results, mainly because it has the advantage of dealing with non-linear relationships between factors. Weather plays an important role in defining crop yields. Being able to simulate accurate weather conditions and predict crop yield has been an important topic in the industry. The objective of this work is to model crop yields using Random Forest regressor and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks (NN) in 9 annual crops in Argentina: wheat, barley, maize, soybean, sunflower, sorghum, rice, cotton and peanut. Soil and weather data was collected and transformed for 80 counties in Argentina. Hyperparameters for the 2 models were optimized and accuracy metrics were compared. Weather information was simulated estimating the distribution of the historical information using KDE (Kernel Density Estimator) and Monte Carlo to generate random sampling. Feature importance analysis allowed to reduce the number of factors up to 7 without compromising model accuracy. From the 9 crops studied, soybean, maize, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and barley models returned reasonable accuracy metrics. Except for the last two (wheat and barley) which are winter crops, the remaining 4 summer crops (soybean, maize, sorghum and sunflower) were forecasted simulating rainfall in different stages of the growing season and returned estimations with an error below 20% (MAPE) before harvest. Random forest outperformed classic MLR statistical model by more than 30% on average over all the crops, but overfitting was significantly high. LSTM did not perform as well as Random forest: although LSTM did not overfit, performance was slightly better than baseline with large variations between crops. This work demonstrates that machine learning algorithms are a competitive alternative to statistical modelling for crop yield prediction, and weather simulations can return reasonably accurate predictions before harvest. This allows the agricultural community to anticipate strategic decisions based on crop production forecasts

Insecticidal and repellant activities of Southeast Asia plants towards insect pests: a review

Crops are being damaged by several plant pests. Several strategies have been developed to restrict the damage of cultivated plants by using synthetic pesticides and repellants. However, the use to control these insects is highly discouraged because of their risks on humans. Therefore, several alternatives have been developed from plant extracts to protect crops from plant pests. Accordingly, this review focuses on outlining the insecticidal and repellant activities of Southeast Asia plants towards insect pests. Several extracts of plants from Southeast Asia were investigated to explore their insecticidal and repellant activities. Azadiracha indica (neem) and Piper species were highly considered for their insecticidal and repellant activities compared to other plants. This review also addressed the investigation on extracts of other plant species that were reported to exert insecticidal and repellant activities. Most of the conducted studies have been still in the primarily stage of investigation, lacking a focus on the insecticidal and repellant spectrum and the identification of the active constituents which are responsible for the insecticidal and repellant activity

ADAPTS: An Intelligent Sustainable Conceptual Framework for Engineering Projects

This paper presents a conceptual framework for the optimization of environmental sustainability in engineering projects, both for products and industrial facilities or processes. The main objective of this work is to propose a conceptual framework to help researchers to approach optimization under the criteria of sustainability of engineering projects, making use of current Machine Learning techniques. For the development of this conceptual framework, a bibliographic search has been carried out on the Web of Science. From the selected documents and through a hermeneutic procedure the texts have been analyzed and the conceptual framework has been carried out. A graphic representation pyramid shape is shown to clearly define the variables of the proposed conceptual framework and their relationships. The conceptual framework consists of 5 dimensions; its acronym is ADAPTS. In the base are: (1) the Application to which it is intended, (2) the available DAta, (3) the APproach under which it is operated, and (4) the machine learning Tool used. At the top of the pyramid, (5) the necessary Sensing. A study case is proposed to show its applicability. This work is part of a broader line of research, in terms of optimization under sustainability criteria.Telefónica Chair “Intelligence in Networks” of the University of Seville (Spain

Analyzing the Adoption, Cropping Rotation, and Impact of Winter Cover Crops in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) Region through Remote Sensing Technologies

This dissertation explores the application of remote sensing technologies in conservation agriculture, specifically focusing on identifying and mapping winter cover crops and assessing voluntary cover crop adoption and cropping patterns in the Arkansas portion of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP). In the first chapter, a systematic review using the PRISMA methodology examines the last 30 years of thematic research, development, and trends in remote sensing applied to conservation agriculture from a global perspective. The review uncovers a growing interest in remote sensing-based research in conservation agriculture and emphasizes the necessity for further studies dedicated to conservation practices. Among the 68 articles examined, 94% of studies utilized a pixel-based classification method, while only 6% employed an object-based approach. The analysis also revealed a thematic shift over time, with tillage practices being extensively studied before 2005, followed by a focus on crop residue from 2004 to 2012. From 2012 to 2020, there was a renewed emphasis on cover crops research. These findings highlight the evolving research landscape and provide insights into the trends within remote sensing-based conservation agriculture studies. The second chapter presents a methodological framework for identifying and mapping winter cover crops. The framework utilizes the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and a Random Forest (RF) classifier with time series data from Landsat 8 satellite. Results demonstrate a high classification accuracy (97.7%) and a significant increase (34%) in model-predicted cover crop adoption over the study period between 2013 and 2019. Additionally, the study showcases the use of multi-year datasets to efficiently map the growing season\u27s length and cover crops\u27 phenological characteristics. The third chapter assesses the voluntary adoption of winter cover crops and cropping patterns in the MAP region. Remote sensing technologies, USDA-NRCS government cover crop data sources, and the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) are employed to identify cover crop locations, analyze county-wide voluntary adoption, and cropping rotations. The result showed a 5.33% increase in the overall voluntary adoption of cover crops in the study region between 2013 and 2019. The findings also indicate a growing trend in cover crop adoption, with soybean-cover crop rotations being prominent. This dissertation enhances our understanding of the role of remote sensing in conservation agriculture with a particular focus on winter cover crops. These insights are valuable for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers seeking to promote sustainable agricultural practices and increased cover crop adoption. The study also underscores the significance of integrating remote sensing technologies into agricultural decision-making processes and highlights the importance of collaboration among policymakers, researchers, and producers. By leveraging the capabilities of remote sensing, it will enhance conservation agriculture contribution to long-term environmental sustainability and agricultural resilience. Keywords: Remote sensing technologies, Conservation agriculture, Winter cover crops, Voluntary adoption, Cropping patterns, Sustainable agricultural practice

Analyzing the Adoption, Cropping Rotation, and Impact of Winter Cover Crops in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) Region through Remote Sensing Technologies

This dissertation explores the application of remote sensing technologies in conservation agriculture, specifically focusing on identifying and mapping winter cover crops and assessing voluntary cover crop adoption and cropping patterns in the Arkansas portion of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP). In the first chapter, a systematic review using the PRISMA methodology examines the last 30 years of thematic research, development, and trends in remote sensing applied to conservation agriculture from a global perspective. The review uncovers a growing interest in remote sensing-based research in conservation agriculture and emphasizes the necessity for further studies dedicated to conservation practices. Among the 68 articles examined, 94% of studies utilized a pixel-based classification method, while only 6% employed an object-based approach. The analysis also revealed a thematic shift over time, with tillage practices being extensively studied before 2005, followed by a focus on crop residue from 2004 to 2012. From 2012 to 2020, there was a renewed emphasis on cover crops research. These findings highlight the evolving research landscape and provide insights into the trends within remote sensing-based conservation agriculture studies. The second chapter presents a methodological framework for identifying and mapping winter cover crops. The framework utilizes the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and a Random Forest (RF) classifier with time series data from Landsat 8 satellite. Results demonstrate a high classification accuracy (97.7%) and a significant increase (34%) in model-predicted cover crop adoption over the study period between 2013 and 2019. Additionally, the study showcases the use of multi-year datasets to efficiently map the growing season\u27s length and cover crops\u27 phenological characteristics. The third chapter assesses the voluntary adoption of winter cover crops and cropping patterns in the MAP region. Remote sensing technologies, USDA-NRCS government cover crop data sources, and the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) are employed to identify cover crop locations, analyze county-wide voluntary adoption, and cropping rotations. The result showed a 5.33% increase in the overall voluntary adoption of cover crops in the study region between 2013 and 2019. The findings also indicate a growing trend in cover crop adoption, with soybean-cover crop rotations being prominent. This dissertation enhances our understanding of the role of remote sensing in conservation agriculture with a particular focus on winter cover crops. These insights are valuable for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers seeking to promote sustainable agricultural practices and increased cover crop adoption. The study also underscores the significance of integrating remote sensing technologies into agricultural decision-making processes and highlights the importance of collaboration among policymakers, researchers, and producers. By leveraging the capabilities of remote sensing, it will enhance conservation agriculture contribution to long-term environmental sustainability and agricultural resilience. Keywords: Remote sensing technologies, Conservation agriculture, Winter cover crops, Voluntary adoption, Cropping patterns, Sustainable agricultural practice

Precision Agriculture and Sensor Systems Applications in Colombia through 5G Networks

The growing global demand for food and the environmental impact caused by agriculture have made this activity increasingly dependent on electronics, information technology, and telecommunications technologies. In Colombia, agriculture is of great importance not only as a commercial activity, but also as a source of food and employment. However, the concept of smart agriculture has not been widely applied in this country, resulting in the high production of various types of crops due to the planting of large areas of land, rather than optimization of the processes involved in the activity. Due to its technical characteristics and the radio spectrum considered in its deployment, 5G can be seen as one of the technologies that could generate the greatest benefits for the Colombian agricultural sector, especially in the most remote rural areas, which currently lack mobile network coverage. This article provides an overview of the current 5G technology landscape in Colombia and presents examples of possible 5G/IoT applications that could be developed in Colombian fields. The results show that 5G could facilitate the implementation of the smart farm in Colombia, improving current production and efficiency. It is useful when designing 5G implementation plans and strategies, since it categorizes crops by regions and products. This is based on budget availability, population density, and regional development plans, among others.AUIP (Iberoamerican University Association for Postgraduate Studies)Spanish Government PGC2018-098813-B-C33UAL-FEDER 2020 UAL2020-TIC-A208

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment

In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-ofthe- art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.Land-use change, computable general equilibrium modeling, integrated assessment, climate change

Hybrid Neural Networks with Attention-based Multiple Instance Learning for Improved Grain Identification and Grain Yield Predictions

Agriculture is a critical part of the world's food production, being a vital aspect of all societies. Procedures need to be adjusted to their specific environment because of their climate and field condition disparity. Existing research has demonstrated the potential of grain yield predictions on Norwegian farms. However, this research is limited to regional analytics, which is unable to acquire sufficient plant growth factors influenced by field conditions and farmers' decisions. One factor critical for yield prediction is the crop type planted on a per-field basis. This research effort proposes a novel approach for improving crop yield predictions using a hybrid deep neural network utilizing temporal satellite imagery from a remote sensing system. Additionally, We apply a variety of data, including grain production, meteorological data, and geographical data. The crop yield prediction system is supported by a field-based crop type classification model, which supplies features related to crop type and field area. Our crop classification system takes advantage of both raw satellite images as well as carefully chosen vegetation indices. Further, we propose a multi-class attention-based deep multiple instance learning model to utilize semi-labeled datasets, fully benefiting Norwegian data acquisition. Our best crop classification model, which consists of a time distributed network and a gated recurrent unit, classifies crop types with an accuracy of 70\% and is currently state-of-the-art for country-wide crop type mapping in Norway. Lastly, our yield prediction system enables realistic in-season early predictions that could benefit actors in real-life scenarios