585 research outputs found
A detectability criterion and data assimilation for non-linear differential equations
In this paper we propose a new sequential data assimilation method for
non-linear ordinary differential equations with compact state space. The method
is designed so that the Lyapunov exponents of the corresponding estimation
error dynamics are negative, i.e. the estimation error decays exponentially
fast. The latter is shown to be the case for generic regular flow maps if and
only if the observation matrix H satisfies detectability conditions: the rank
of H must be at least as great as the number of nonnegative Lyapunov exponents
of the underlying attractor. Numerical experiments illustrate the exponential
convergence of the method and the sharpness of the theory for the case of
Lorenz96 and Burgers equations with incomplete and noisy observations
Bridging the ensemble Kalman and particle filter
In many applications of Monte Carlo nonlinear filtering, the propagation step
is computationally expensive, and hence, the sample size is limited. With small
sample sizes, the update step becomes crucial. Particle filtering suffers from
the well-known problem of sample degeneracy. Ensemble Kalman filtering avoids
this, at the expense of treating non-Gaussian features of the forecast
distribution incorrectly. Here we introduce a procedure which makes a
continuous transition indexed by gamma in [0,1] between the ensemble and the
particle filter update. We propose automatic choices of the parameter gamma
such that the update stays as close as possible to the particle filter update
subject to avoiding degeneracy. In various examples, we show that this
procedure leads to updates which are able to handle non-Gaussian features of
the prediction sample even in high-dimensional situations
Identification of high-permeability subsurface structures with multiple point geostatistics and normal score ensemble Kalman filter
Alluvial aquifers are often characterized by the presence of braided high-permeable paleo-riverbeds, which constitute an interconnected preferential flow network whose localization is of fundamental importance to predict flow and transport dynamics. Classic geostatistical approaches based on two-point correlation (i.e., the variogram) cannot describe such particular shapes. In contrast, multiple point geostatistics can describe almost any kind of shape using the empirical probability distribution derived from a training image. However, even with a correct training image the exact positions of the channels are uncertain. State information like groundwater levels can constrain the channel positions using inverse modeling or data assimilation, but the method should be able to handle non-Gaussianity of the parameter distribution. Here the normal score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF) was chosen as the inverse conditioning algorithm to tackle this issue. Multiple point geostatistics and NS-EnKF have already been tested in synthetic examples, but in this study they are used for the first time in a real-world casestudy. The test site is an alluvial unconfined aquifer in northeastern Italy with an extension of approximately 3 km2. A satellite training image showing the braid shapes of the nearby river and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) images were used as conditioning data to provide information on channel shape, size, and position. Measured groundwater levels were assimilated with the NS-EnKF to update the spatially distributed groundwater parameters (hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients). Results from the study show that the inversion based on multiple point geostatistics does not outperform the one with a multiGaussian model and that the information from the ERT images did not improve site characterization. These results were further evaluated with a synthetic study that mimics the experimental site. The synthetic results showed that only for a much larger number of conditioning piezometric heads, multiple point geostatistics and ERT could improve aquifer characterization. This shows that state of the art stochastic methods need to be supported by abundant and high-quality subsurface data
An Ensemble Kalman-Particle Predictor-Corrector Filter for Non-Gaussian Data Assimilation
An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, the predictor) is used make a large change
in the state, followed by a Particle Filer (PF, the corrector) which assigns
importance weights to describe non-Gaussian distribution. The weights are
obtained by nonparametric density estimation. It is demonstrated on several
numerical examples that the new predictor-corrector filter combines the
advantages of the EnKF and the PF and that it is suitable for high dimensional
states which are discretizations of solutions of partial differential
equations.Comment: ICCS 2009, to appear; 9 pages; minor edit
Efficient non-linear data assimilation in geophysical fluid dynamics
New ways of combining observations with numerical models are discussed in which the size of the state space can be very large, and the model can be highly nonlinear. Also the observations of the system can be related to the model variables in highly nonlinear ways, making this data-assimilation (or inverse) problem highly nonlinear. First we discuss the connection between data assimilation and inverse problems, including regularization. We explore
the choice of proposal density in a Particle Filter and show how the ’curse of dimensionality’ might be beaten. In the standard Particle Filter ensembles of model runs are propagated forward in time until observations are encountered, rendering it a pure Monte-Carlo method. In large-dimensional systems this is very inefficient and very large numbers of model runs are needed to solve the data-assimilation problem realistically. In our approach we steer all model runs towards the observations resulting in a much more efficient method. By further ’ensuring almost equal weight’ we avoid performing model runs that are useless in the end. Results are shown for the 40 and 1000 dimensional Lorenz 1995 model
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