8,712 research outputs found
Estimation of Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Models using Limited Information
This work deals with the problem of estimating a photovoltaic generation
forecasting model in scenarios where measurements of meteorological variables
(i.e. solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. A
novel algorithm for the estimation of the parameters of the well-known PVUSA
model of a photovoltaic plant is proposed. Such a method is characterized by a
low computational complexity, and efficiently exploits only power generation
measurements, a theoretical clear-sky irradiance model, and temperature
forecasts provided by a meteorological service. An extensive experimental
validation of the proposed method on real data is also presented
Failure mode prediction and energy forecasting of PV plants to assist dynamic maintenance tasks by ANN based models
In the field of renewable energy, reliability analysis techniques combining the operating time of the system with the observation of operational and environmental conditions, are gaining importance over time.
In this paper, reliability models are adapted to incorporate monitoring data on operating assets, as well as information on their environmental conditions, in their calculations. To that end, a logical decision tool based on two artificial neural networks models is presented. This tool allows updating assets reliability analysis according to changes in operational and/or environmental conditions.
The proposed tool could easily be automated within a supervisory control and data acquisition system, where reference values and corresponding warnings and alarms could be now dynamically generated using the tool. Thanks to this capability, on-line diagnosis and/or potential asset degradation prediction can be certainly improved.
Reliability models in the tool presented are developed according to the available amount of failure data and are used for early detection of degradation in energy production due to power inverter and solar trackers functional failures.
Another capability of the tool presented in the paper is to assess the economic risk associated with the system under existing conditions and for a certain period of time. This information can then also be used to trigger preventive maintenance activities
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Generation and Evaluation of Space-Time Trajectories of Photovoltaic Power
In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed
on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is
dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power
systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be
made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However,
many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while
uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and
in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing
spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive
distributions are modelled and space-time trajectories describing the potential
evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are
generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance
assessment of space-time trajectories of PV generation is also studied.
Finally, the advantage of taking into account space-time correlations over
probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation
is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition
(GEFCom) 2014.Comment: 33 pages, 11 Figure
How predictable is technological progress?
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized
version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different
rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a
correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on
53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the
distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting
experiments we show that this works well, making it possible to collapse the
forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto
the same universal distribution. This is valuable because it allows us to make
forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of
the forecasts. As a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at
different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules, and show how our method
can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform
another technology at a given point in the future
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