Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

Over the last decades or so, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have become one of the most promising tools for modelling hydrological processes such as rainfall-runoff processes. In most studies, ANNs have been demonstrated to show superior result compared to the traditional modelling approaches. They are able to map underlying relationships between input and output data without detailed knowledge of the processes under investigation, by finding an optimum set of network parameters through the learning or training process. This thesis considers two types of ANNs, namely, self-organizing map (SOM) and feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP). The thesis starts with the issue of understanding of a trained ANN model by using neural interpretation diagram (NID), Garson's algorithm and a randomization approach. Then the applicability of the SOM algorithm within water resources applications is reviewed and compared to the well-known feed-forward MLP. Moreover, the thesis deals with the problem of missing values in the context of a monthly precipitation database. This part deals with the problem of missing values by using SOM and feed-forward MLP models along with inclusion of regionalization properties obtained from the SOM. The problem of filling in of missing data in a daily precipitation-runoff database is also considered. This study deals with the filling in of missing values using SOM and feed-forward MLP along with multivariate nearest neighbour (MNN), regularized expectation-maximization algorithm (REGEM) and multiple imputation (MI). Finally, once a complete database was obtained, SOM and feed-forward MLP models were developed in order to forecast one-month ahead runoff. Some issues such as the applicability of the SOM algorithm for modularization and the effect of the number of modules in modelling performance were investigated. It was found that it is indeed possible to make an ANN reveal some information about the mechanisms governing rainfall-runoff processes. The literature review showed that SOMs are becoming increasingly popular but that there are hardly any reviews of SOM applications. In the case of imputation of missing values in the monthly precipitation, the results indicated the importance of the inclusion of regionalization properties of SOM prior to the application of SOM and feed-forward MLP models. In the case of gap-filling of the daily precipitation-runoff database, the results showed that most of the methods yield similar results. However, the SOM and MNN tended to give the most robust results. REGEM and MI hold the assumption of multivariate normality, which does not seem to fit the data at hand. The feed-forward MLP is sensitive to the location of missing values in the database and did not perform very well. Based on the one-month ahead forecasting, it was found that although the idea of modularization based on SOM is highly persuasive, the results indicated a need for more principled procedures to modularize the processes. Moreover, the modelling results indicated that a supervised SOM model can be considered as a viable alternative approach to the well-known feed-forward MLP model

A Comprehensive Survey of Data Mining Techniques on Time Series Data for Rainfall Prediction

Time series data available in huge amounts can be used in decision-making. Such time series data can be converted into information to be used for forecasting. Various techniques are available for prediction and forecasting on the basis of time series data. Presently, the use of data mining techniques for this purpose is increasing day by day. In the present study, a comprehensive survey of data mining approaches and statistical techniques for rainfall prediction on time series data was conducted. A detailed comparison of different relevant techniques was also conducted and some plausible solutions are suggested for efficient time series data mining techniques for future algorithms.

Explainable Physics-informed Deep Learning for Rainfall-runoff Modeling and Uncertainty Assessment across the Continental United States

Hydrologic models provide a comprehensive tool to calibrate streamflow response to environmental variables. Various hydrologic modeling approaches, ranging from physically based to conceptual to entirely data-driven models, have been widely used for hydrologic simulation. During the recent years, however, Deep Learning (DL), a new generation of Machine Learning (ML), has transformed hydrologic simulation research to a new direction. DL methods have recently proposed for rainfall-runoff modeling that complement both distributed and conceptual hydrologic models, particularly in a catchment where data to support a process-based model is scared and limited. This dissertation investigated the applicability of two advanced probabilistic physics-informed DL algorithms, i.e., deep autoregressive network (DeepAR) and temporal fusion transformer (TFT), for daily rainfall-runoff modeling across the continental United States (CONUS). We benchmarked our proposed models against several physics-based hydrologic approaches such as the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), and the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). These benchmark models can be distinguished into two different groups. The first group are the models calibrated for each basin individually (e.g., SAC-SMA, VIC, FUSE2, mHM and HBV) while the second group, including our physics-informed approaches, is made up of the models that were regionally calibrated. Models in this group share one parameter set for all basins in the dataset. All the approaches were implemented and tested using Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS)\u27s Maurer datasets. We developed the TFT and DeepAR with two different configurations i.e., with (physics-informed model) and without (the original model) static attributes. Various catchment static and dynamic physical attributes were incorporated into the pipeline with various spatiotemporal variabilities to simulate how a drainage system responds to rainfall-runoff processes. To demonstrate how the model learned to differentiate between different rainfall–runoff behaviors across different catchments and to identify the dominant process, sensitivity and explainability analysis of modeling outcomes are also performed. Despite recent advancements, deep networks are perceived as being challenging to parameterize; thus, their simulation may propagate error and uncertainty in modeling. To address uncertainty, a quantile likelihood function was incorporated as the TFT loss function. The results suggest that the physics-informed TFT model was superior in predicting high and low flow fluctuations compared to the original TFT and DeepAR models (without static attributes) or even the physics-informed DeepAR. Physics-informed TFT model well recognized which static attributes more contributing to streamflow generation of each specific catchment considering its climate, topography, land cover, soil, and geological conditions. The interpretability and the ability of the physics-informed TFT model to assimilate the multisource of information and parameters make it a strong candidate for regional as well as continental-scale hydrologic simulations. It was noted that both physics-informed TFT and DeepAR were more successful in learning the intermediate flow and high flow regimes rather than the low flow regime. The advantage of the high flow can be attributed to learning a more generalizable mapping between static and dynamic attributes and runoff parameters. It seems both TFT and DeepAR may have enabled the learning of some true processes that are missing from both conceptual and physics-based models, possibly related to deep soil water storage (the layer where soil water is not sensitive to daily evapotranspiration), saturated hydraulic conductivity, and vegetation dynamics

A lumped conceptual model to simulate groundwater level time-series

Lumped, conceptual groundwater models can be used to simulate groundwater level time-series quickly and efficiently without the need for comprehensive modelling expertise. A new model of this type, AquiMod, is presented for simulating groundwater level time-series in unconfined aquifers. Its modular design enables users to implement different model structures to gain understanding about controls on aquifer storage and discharge. Five model structures are evaluated for four contrasting aquifers in the United Kingdom. The ability of different model structures and parameterisations to replicate the observed hydrographs is examined. AquiMod simulates the quasi-sinusoidal hydrographs of the relatively uniform Chalk and Sandstone aquifers most efficiently. It is least efficient at capturing the flashy hydrograph of a heterogeneous, fractured Limestone aquifer. The majority of model parameters demonstrate sensitivity and can be related to available field data. The model structure experiments demonstrate the need to represent vertical aquifer heterogeneity to capture the storage-discharge dynamics efficiently

Multi-agent system for flood forecasting in Tropical River Basin

It is well known, the problems related to the generation of floods, their control, and management, have been treated with traditional hydrologic modeling tools focused on the study and the analysis of the precipitation-runoff relationship, a physical process which is driven by the hydrological cycle and the climate regime and that is directly proportional to the generation of floodwaters. Within the hydrological discipline, they classify these traditional modeling tools according to three principal groups, being the first group defined as trial-and-error models (e.g., "black-models"), the second group are the conceptual models, which are categorized in three main sub-groups as "lumped", "semi-lumped" and "semi-distributed", according to the special distribution, and finally, models that are based on physical processes, known as "white-box models" are the so-called "distributed-models". On the other hand, in engineering applications, there are two types of models used in streamflow forecasting, and which are classified concerning the type of measurements and variables required as "physically based models", as well as "data-driven models". The Physically oriented prototypes present an in-depth account of the dynamics related to the physical aspects that occur internally among the different systems of a given hydrographic basin. However, aside from being laborious to implement, they rely thoroughly on mathematical algorithms, and an understanding of these interactions requires the abstraction of mathematical concepts and the conceptualization of the physical processes that are intertwined among these systems. Besides, models determined by data necessitates an a-priori understanding of the physical laws controlling the process within the system, and they are bound to mathematical formulations, which require a lot of numeric information for field adjustments. Therefore, these models are remarkably different from each other because of their needs for data, and their interpretation of physical phenomena. Although there is considerable progress in hydrologic modeling for flood forecasting, several significant setbacks remain unresolved, given the stochastic nature of the hydrological phenomena, is the challenge to implement user-friendly, re-usable, robust, and reliable forecasting systems, the amount of uncertainty they must deal with when trying to solve the flood forecasting problem. However, in the past decades, with the growing environment and development of the artificial intelligence (AI) field, some researchers have seldomly attempted to deal with the stochastic nature of hydrologic events with the application of some of these techniques. Given the setbacks to hydrologic flood forecasting previously described this thesis research aims to integrate the physics-based hydrologic, hydraulic, and data-driven models under the paradigm of Multi-agent Systems for flood forecasting by designing and developing a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for flood forecasting events within the scope of tropical watersheds. With the emergence of the agent technologies, the "agent-based modeling" and "multiagent systems" simulation methods have provided applications for some areas of hydro base management like flood protection, planning, control, management, mitigation, and forecasting to combat the shocks produced by floods on society; however, all these focused on evacuation drills, and the latter not aimed at the tropical river basin, whose hydrological regime is extremely unique. In this catchment modeling environment approach, it was applied the multi-agent systems approach as a surrogate of the conventional hydrologic model to build a system that operates at the catchment level displayed with hydrometric stations, that use the data from hydrometric sensors networks (e.g., rainfall, river stage, river flow) captured, stored and administered by an organization of interacting agents whose main aim is to perform flow forecasting and awareness, and in so doing enhance the policy-making process at the watershed level. Section one of this document surveys the status of the current research in hydrologic modeling for the flood forecasting task. It is a journey through the background of related concerns to the hydrological process, flood ontologies, management, and forecasting. The section covers, to a certain extent, the techniques, methods, and theoretical aspects and methods of hydrological modeling and their types, from the conventional models to the present-day artificial intelligence prototypes, making special emphasis on the multi-agent systems, as most recent modeling methodology in the hydrological sciences. However, it is also underlined here that the section does not contribute to an all-inclusive revision, rather its purpose is to serve as a framework for this sort of work and a path to underline the significant aspects of the works. In section two of the document, it is detailed the conceptual framework for the suggested Multiagent system in support of flood forecasting. To accomplish this task, several works need to be carried out such as the sketching and implementation of the system’s framework with the (Belief-Desire-Intention model) architecture for flood forecasting events within the concept of the tropical river basin. Contributions of this proposed architecture are the replacement of the conventional hydrologic modeling with the use of multi-agent systems, which makes it quick for hydrometric time-series data administration and modeling of the precipitation-runoff process which conveys to flood in a river course. Another advantage is the user-friendly environment provided by the proposed multi-agent system platform graphical interface, the real-time generation of graphs, charts, and monitors with the information on the immediate event taking place in the catchment, which makes it easy for the viewer with some or no background in data analysis and their interpretation to get a visual idea of the information at hand regarding the flood awareness. The required agents developed in this multi-agent system modeling framework for flood forecasting have been trained, tested, and validated under a series of experimental tasks, using the hydrometric series information of rainfall, river stage, and streamflow data collected by the hydrometric sensor agents from the hydrometric sensors.Como se sabe, los problemas relacionados con la generación de inundaciones, su control y manejo, han sido tratados con herramientas tradicionales de modelado hidrológico enfocados al estudio y análisis de la relación precipitación-escorrentía, proceso físico que es impulsado por el ciclo hidrológico y el régimen climático y este esta directamente proporcional a la generación de crecidas. Dentro de la disciplina hidrológica, clasifican estas herramientas de modelado tradicionales en tres grupos principales, siendo el primer grupo el de modelos empíricos (modelos de caja negra), modelos conceptuales (o agrupados, semi-agrupados o semi-distribuidos) dependiendo de la distribución espacial y, por último, los basados en la física, modelos de proceso (o "modelos de caja blanca", y/o distribuidos). En este sentido, clasifican las aplicaciones de predicción de caudal fluvial en la ingeniería de recursos hídricos en dos tipos con respecto a los valores y parámetros que requieren en: modelos de procesos basados en la física y la categoría de modelos impulsados por datos. Los modelos basados en la física proporcionan una descripción detallada de la dinámica relacionada con los aspectos físicos que ocurren internamente entre los diferentes sistemas de una cuenca hidrográfica determinada. Sin embargo, aparte de ser complejos de implementar, se basan completamente en algoritmos matemáticos, y la comprensión de estas interacciones requiere la abstracción de conceptos matemáticos y la conceptualización de los procesos físicos que se entrelazan entre estos sistemas. Además, los modelos impulsados por datos no requieren conocimiento de los procesos físicos que gobiernan, sino que se basan únicamente en ecuaciones empíricas que necesitan una gran cantidad de datos y requieren calibración de los datos en el sitio. Los dos modelos difieren significativamente debido a sus requisitos de datos y de cómo expresan los fenómenos físicos. La elaboración de modelos hidrológicos para el pronóstico de inundaciones ha dado grandes pasos, pero siguen sin resolverse algunos contratiempos importantes, dada la naturaleza estocástica de los fenómenos hidrológicos, es el desafío de implementar sistemas de pronóstico fáciles de usar, reutilizables, robustos y confiables, la cantidad de incertidumbre que deben afrontar al intentar resolver el problema de la predicción de inundaciones. Sin embargo, en las últimas décadas, con el entorno creciente y el desarrollo del campo de la inteligencia artificial (IA), algunos investigadores rara vez han intentado abordar la naturaleza estocástica de los eventos hidrológicos con la aplicación de algunas de estas técnicas. Dados los contratiempos en el pronóstico de inundaciones hidrológicas descritos anteriormente, esta investigación de tesis tiene como objetivo integrar los modelos hidrológicos, basados en la física, hidráulicos e impulsados por datos bajo el paradigma de Sistemas de múltiples agentes para el pronóstico de inundaciones por medio del bosquejo y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente (MAS) para los eventos de predicción de inundaciones en el contexto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Con la aparición de las tecnologías de agentes, se han emprendido algunos enfoques de simulación recientes en la investigación hidrológica con modelos basados en agentes y sistema multi-agente, principalmente en alerta por inundaciones, seguridad y planificación de inundaciones, control y gestión de inundaciones y pronóstico de inundaciones, todos estos enfocado a simulacros de evacuación, y este último no dirigido a la cuenca tropical, cuyo régimen hidrológico es extremadamente único. En este enfoque de entorno de modelado de cuencas, se aplican los enfoques de sistemas multi-agente como un sustituto del modelado hidrológico convencional para construir un sistema que opera a nivel de cuenca con estaciones hidrométricas desplegadas, que utilizan los datos de redes de sensores hidrométricos (por ejemplo, lluvia , nivel del río, caudal del río) capturado, almacenado y administrado por una organización de agentes interactuantes cuyo objetivo principal es realizar pronósticos de caudal y concientización para mejorar las capacidades de soporte en la formulación de políticas a nivel de cuenca hidrográfica. La primera sección de este documento analiza el estado del arte sobre la investigación actual en modelos hidrológicos para la tarea de pronóstico de inundaciones. Es un viaje a través de los antecedentes preocupantes relacionadas con el proceso hidrológico, las ontologías de inundaciones, la gestión y la predicción. El apartado abarca, en cierta medida, las técnicas, métodos y aspectos teóricos y métodos del modelado hidrológico y sus tipologías, desde los modelos convencionales hasta los prototipos de inteligencia artificial actuales, haciendo hincapié en los sistemas multi-agente, como un enfoque de simulación reciente en la investigación hidrológica. Sin embargo, se destaca que esta sección no contribuye a una revisión integral, sino que su propósito es servir de marco para este tipo de trabajos y una guía para subrayar los aspectos significativos de los trabajos. En la sección dos del documento, se detalla el marco de trabajo propuesto para el sistema multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones. Los trabajos realizados comprendieron el diseño y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente con la arquitectura (modelo Creencia-Deseo-Intención) para la predicción de eventos de crecidas dentro del concepto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Las contribuciones de esta arquitectura propuesta son el reemplazo del modelado hidrológico convencional con el uso de sistemas multi-agente, lo que agiliza la administración de las series de tiempo de datos hidrométricos y el modelado del proceso de precipitación-escorrentía que conduce a la inundación en el curso de un río. Otra ventaja es el entorno amigable proporcionado por la interfaz gráfica de la plataforma del sistema multi-agente propuesto, la generación en tiempo real de gráficos, cuadros y monitores con la información sobre el evento inmediato que tiene lugar en la cuenca, lo que lo hace fácil para el espectador con algo o sin experiencia en análisis de datos y su interpretación para tener una idea visual de la información disponible con respecto a la cognición de las inundaciones. Los agentes necesarios desarrollados en este marco de modelado de sistemas multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones han sido entrenados, probados y validados en una serie de tareas experimentales, utilizando la información de la serie hidrométrica de datos de lluvia, nivel del río y flujo del curso de agua recolectados por los agentes sensores hidrométricos de los sensores hidrométricos de campo.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: María Araceli Sanchis de Miguel.- Secretario: Juan Gómez Romero.- Vocal: Juan Carlos Corrale

Surface global irradiance assessed by three different methods

Three methods will be used to evaluate the surface global irradiance: radiative transfer theory, empirical regression, and artificial neural networks (ANN). Radiative transfer is the fundamental theory that describes the propagation of radiation through a medium; empirical regression predicts surface global irradiance in simple parameterizations; artificial neural network, as an artificial intelligence technique, can also be tried to assess the surface global irradiance. These three approaches are studied in the present work. Data from the station “EL IDEAM” were used in the modeling experiments built upon these approaches to evaluate the daily transparency, also known as clearness index. We found out that the optimal inputs for artificial neural networks are extraterrestrial irradiance, surface relative humidity, and a pollution index based on particulate matter of sizes less than 10µm (PM 10 ). Surface relative humidity was suggested in a regression trial under meteorological conditions of “EL IDEAM”. By means of the programming code DISORT for the solution of the radiative transfer equation, daily irradiance characteristics were analyzed, and a hybrid model was created. Our results showed that artificial neural network produces higher scores than the other methods, though advantages and drawbacks are also discussed and compared.Maestrí

Robust decadal hydroclimate predictions for northern Italy based on a twofold statistical approach

The Mediterranean area belongs to the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase in frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades. However, many climate records like, e.g., North Italian precipitation and river discharge records, indicate that significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates long-term hydrological trends. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. Here, we present a twofold decadal forecast of Po River (Northern Italy) discharge obtained with a statistical approach consisting of the separate application and cross-validation of autoregressive models and neural networks. Both methods are applied to each significant variability component extracted from the raw discharge time series using Singular Spectrum Analysis, and the final forecast is obtained by merging the predictions of the individual components. The obtained 25-year forecasts robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the late 2020s/early 2030s. Our prediction provides information of great value for hydrological management, and a target for current and future near-term numerical hydrological predictions

Robust decadal hydroclimate predictions for northern Italy based on a twofold statistical approach

The Mediterranean area belongs to the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase in frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades. However, many climate records like, e.g., North Italian precipitation and river discharge records, indicate that significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates long-term hydrological trends. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. Here, we present a twofold decadal forecast of Po River (Northern Italy) discharge obtained with a statistical approach consisting of the separate application and cross-validation of autoregressive models and neural networks. Both methods are applied to each significant variability component extracted from the raw discharge time series using Singular Spectrum Analysis, and the final forecast is obtained by merging the predictions of the individual components. The obtained 25-year forecasts robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the late 2020s/early 2030s. Our prediction provides information of great value for hydrological management, and a target for current and future near-term numerical hydrological predictions