5 research outputs found

    Integrated Model Development for the Assessment of Food Security in China Related to Climate Change and Adaptation

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    This thesis developed a practical methodological framework, which integrated the bio-physical and socio-economic processes within the food system across different scales. The framework provides a useful tool for the assessment of food security and possible adaptation related to climate change. It was applied in China, a country with rapid economic growth and a large population, in order to evaluate multiple dimensions of food security related to climate change and socio-economic development in the future. In the framework, an improved bio-physical crop model was coupled with an improved food economic model by scaling up from the farm level to the national level. The bio-physical crop model was developed from the site-based Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model in order to investigate the impacts of climate change on physical production of a crop only related to environmental factors. The food economic model was developed from a partial equilibrium economic model, China's Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM). This was done in order to simulate the response of a socio-economic system to the negative consequences on a food economic system from the bio-physical change in crop production due to climate change. Case studies of China and the Jilin province were investigated by applying the framework. The impacts of climate change on yield and phenology of maize under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios were studied at provincial and national levels in three time periods, 2020s, 2050s, 2070s, using the improved bio-physical crop model. In general, maize yield reduction due to climate change ranges from -3% in 2020 to -14% in 2070. The worst yield is -20.5% in 2070 produced under the A1FI scenario. Food security for China until 2050 was projected under multiple climate change and socio-economic scenarios by using the food economic model, and analyzed with respect to food availability, food price and the system resilience to sudden disasters. Modelled climate change impacts on food availability in this study are minimal, producing only a 23 Mt (~8%) gap between supply and demand for maize by 2050. The socio-economic system will compensate for the impacts of climate change on the self-sufficiency of grains by about 8% of total production for the whole country. The impacts on single grain would cause the prices of other grains to rise in future. The effectiveness of potential adaptation measures was assessed quantitatively at both farm and national levels. Uncertainties among different scenarios are discussed for China and the Jilin province

    Remote Sensing Monitoring of Land Surface Temperature (LST)

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    This book is a collection of recent developments, methodologies, calibration and validation techniques, and applications of thermal remote sensing data and derived products from UAV-based, aerial, and satellite remote sensing. A set of 15 papers written by a total of 70 authors was selected for this book. The published papers cover a wide range of topics, which can be classified in five groups: algorithms, calibration and validation techniques, improvements in long-term consistency in satellite LST, downscaling of LST, and LST applications and land surface emissivity research

    Water Resources Management Models for Policy Assessment

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    This book is a compilation of original research articles that apply a variety of techniques to identify and evaluate water resource management policies. These papers cover a wide range of topics and methodologies applied across the world, from a local to a continental scope. They illustrate open challenges in water resource management, such as the quantitative assessment of policy impacts, trade-off analyses, understanding the water–energy–food–environment nexus, collaborative model development, stakeholder engagement, formalizing social interactions, or improving the theoretical understanding of complex adaptive systems. Therefore, this book is a representation of research areas that have emerged from the origins of water resource systems analysis, seeking to improve the way in which water policy is formulated and implemented

    A Systems Approach for River and River Basin Restoration

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    Communities increasingly find that the water quality, water levels, or some other resource indicator in their river basins do not meet their expectations. This discrepancy between the desired and actual state of the resource leads to efforts in river basin restoration. River basins are complex systems, and too often, restoration efforts are ineffective due to a lack of understanding of the purpose of the system, defined by the system structure and function. The river basin structure includes stocks (e.g., water level or quality), inflows (e.g., precipitation or fertilization), outflows (e.g., evaporation or runoff), and positive and negative feedback loops with delays in responsiveness, all of which function to change or stabilize the state of the system (e.g., the stock of interest, such as water level or quality). External drivers on this structure, together with goals and rules, contribute to how a river basin functions. This book reviews several new research projects to identify and rank the twelve most effective leverage points to address discrepancies between the desired and actual state of the river basin system. This book demonstrates that river basin restoration is most likely to succeed when we change paradigms rather than try to change the system elements, as the paradigm will establish the system goals, structure, rules, delays, and parameters
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