Data-based mechanistic modelling, forecasting, and control.

This article briefly reviews the main aspects of the generic data based mechanistic (DBM) approach to modeling stochastic dynamic systems and shown how it is being applied to the analysis, forecasting, and control of environmental and agricultural systems. The advantages of this inductive approach to modeling lie in its wide range of applicability. It can be used to model linear, nonstationary, and nonlinear stochastic systems, and its exploitation of recursive estimation means that the modeling results are useful for both online and offline applications. To demonstrate the practical utility of the various methodological tools that underpin the DBM approach, the article also outlines several typical, practical examples in the area of environmental and agricultural systems analysis, where DBM models have formed the basis for simulation model reduction, control system design, and forecastin

Neural Stochastic Contraction Metrics for Learning-based Control and Estimation

We present Neural Stochastic Contraction Metrics (NSCM), a new design framework for provably-stable learning-based control and estimation for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems. It uses a spectrally-normalized deep neural network to construct a contraction metric and its differential Lyapunov function, sampled via simplified convex optimization in the stochastic setting. Spectral normalization constrains the state-derivatives of the metric to be Lipschitz continuous, thereby ensuring exponential boundedness of the mean squared distance of system trajectories under stochastic disturbances. The trained NSCM model allows autonomous systems to approximate optimal stable control and estimation policies in real-time, and outperforms existing nonlinear control and estimation techniques including the state-dependent Riccati equation, iterative LQR, EKF, and the deterministic NCM, as shown in simulation results

A discrete invitation to quantum filtering and feedback control

The engineering and control of devices at the quantum-mechanical level--such as those consisting of small numbers of atoms and photons--is a delicate business. The fundamental uncertainty that is inherently present at this scale manifests itself in the unavoidable presence of noise, making this a novel field of application for stochastic estimation and control theory. In this expository paper we demonstrate estimation and feedback control of quantum mechanical systems in what is essentially a noncommutative version of the binomial model that is popular in mathematical finance. The model is extremely rich and allows a full development of the theory, while remaining completely within the setting of finite-dimensional Hilbert spaces (thus avoiding the technical complications of the continuous theory). We introduce discretized models of an atom in interaction with the electromagnetic field, obtain filtering equations for photon counting and homodyne detection, and solve a stochastic control problem using dynamic programming and Lyapunov function methods.Comment: 76 pages, 12 figures. A PDF file with high resolution figures can be found at http://minty.caltech.edu/papers.ph

Probabilistic Reachability Analysis for Large Scale Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This paper studies probabilistic reachability analysis for large scale stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) as a problem of rare event estimation. In literature, advanced rare event estimation theory has recently been embedded within a stochastic analysis framework, and this has led to significant novel results in rare event estimation for a diffusion process using sequential MC simulation. This paper presents this rare event estimation theory directly in terms of probabilistic reachability analysis of an SHS, and develops novel theory which allows to extend the novel results for application to a large scale SHS where a very huge number of rare discrete modes may contribute significantly to the reach probability. Essentially, the approach taken is to introduce an aggregation of the discrete modes, and to develop importance sampling relative to the rare switching between the aggregation modes. The practical working of this approach is demonstrated for the safety verification of an advanced air traffic control example

New advances in H∞ control and filtering for nonlinear systems

The main objective of this special issue is to summarise recent advances in H∞ control and filtering for nonlinear systems, including time-delay, hybrid and stochastic systems. The published papers provide new ideas and approaches, clearly indicating the advances made in problem statements, methodologies or applications with respect to the existing results. The special issue also includes papers focusing on advanced and non-traditional methods and presenting considerable novelties in theoretical background or experimental setup. Some papers present applications to newly emerging fields, such as network-based control and estimation

Discretizing stochastic dynamical systems using Lyapunov equations

Stochastic dynamical systems are fundamental in state estimation, system identification and control. System models are often provided in continuous time, while a major part of the applied theory is developed for discrete-time systems. Discretization of continuous-time models is hence fundamental. We present a novel algorithm using a combination of Lyapunov equations and analytical solutions, enabling efficient implementation in software. The proposed method circumvents numerical problems exhibited by standard algorithms in the literature. Both theoretical and simulation results are provided