Combining Crop Models and Remote Sensing for Yield Prediction: Concepts, Applications and Challenges for Heterogeneous Smallholder Environments

JRC and CCAFS jointly organized a workshop on June 13-14, 2012 in Ispra, Italy with the aim to advance the state-of-knowledge of data assimilation for crop yield forecasting in general, to address challenges and needs for successful applications of data assimilation in forecasting crop yields in heterogeneous, smallholder environments, and to enhance collaboration and exchange of knowledge among data assimilation and crop forecasting groups. The workshop showed that advances made in crop science are widely applicable to crop forecasting. The presentations of the participants approached the challenge from many sides, leading to ideas for improvement that can be implemented in real-time, operational crop yield forecasting. When applied, this knowledge has the potential to benefit the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the developing world.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

A method for estimating yield of maize inbred lines by assimilating WOFOST model with Sentinel-2 satellite data

Maize is the most widely planted food crop in China, and maize inbred lines, as the basis of maize genetic breeding and seed breeding, have a significant impact on China’s seed security and food safety. Satellite remote sensing technology has been widely used for growth monitoring and yield estimation of various crops, but it is still doubtful whether the existing remote sensing monitoring means can distinguish the growth difference between maize inbred lines and hybrids and accurately estimate the yield of maize inbred lines. This paper explores a method for estimating the yield of maize inbred lines based on the assimilation of crop models and remote sensing data, initially solves the problem. At first, this paper analyzed the WOFOST(World Food Studies)model parameter sensitivity and used the MCMC(Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method to calibrate the sensitive parameters to obtain the parameter set of maize inbred lines differing from common hybrid maize; then the vegetation indices were selected to establish an empirical model with the measured LAI(Leaf Area Index) at three key development stages to obtain the remotely sensed estimated LAI; finally, the yield of maize inbred lines in the study area was estimated and mapped pixel by pixel using the EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter) data assimilation algorithm. Also, this paper compares a method of assimilation by setting a single parameter. Instead of the WOFOST parameter optimization process, a parameter representing the growth weakness of the inbred lines was set in WOFOST to distinguish the inbred lines from the hybrids. The results showed that the yield estimated by the two methods compared with the field measured yield data had R2: 0.56 and 0.18, and RMSE: 684.90 Kg/Ha and 949.95 Kg/Ha, respectively, which proved that the crop growth model of maize inbred lines established in this study combined with the data assimilation method could initially achieve the growth monitoring and yield estimation of maize inbred lines

In-season crop yield forecasting in Africa by coupling remote sensing and crop modeling: A systematic literature review

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is crucial for national food policy and security assessments. Crop models and remote sensing techniques have been combined and applied in crop yield estimation on a regional scale. Previous studies have proposed models for estimating canopy state variables and soil properties based on remote sensing data and assimilating these estimated canopy state variables into crop models. This paper presents an overview of the comparative introduction, latest developments and applications of crop models, remote sensing techniques, and data assimilation methods in the growth status monitoring and yield estimation of crops, facilitating the improvement of crop models and RS coupling approach in Africa

Advanced Computer Technologies for Integrated Agro-Hydrologic Systems Modeling: Coupled Crop and Hydrologic Models for Agricultural Intensification Impacts Assessment

Coupling hydrologic and crop models is increasingly becoming an important task when addressing agro-hydrologic systems studies. Either for resources conservation or cropping systems improvement, the complex interactions between hydrologic regime and crop management components requires an integrative approach in order to be fully understood. Nevertheless, the literature offers limited resources on models’ coupling that targets environmental scientists. Indeed, major of guides are are destined primarily for computer specialists and make them hard to encompass and apply. To address this gap, we present an extensive research to crop and hydrologic models coupling that targets earth agro-hydrologic modeling studies in its integrative complexity. The primary focus is to understand the relationship between agricultural intensification and its impacts on hydrologic balance. We provided documentations, classifications, applications and references of the available technologies and trends of development. We applied the results of the investigation by coupling the DREAM hydrologic model with DSSAT crop model. Both models were upgraded either on their code source (DREAM) or operational base (DSSAT) for interoperability and parallelization. The resulting model operates at a grid base and daily step. The model is applied southern Italy to analyze the effect of fertilizer application on runoff generation between 2000 and 2013. The results of the study show a significant impacts of nitrogen application on water yield. Indeed, nearly 71.5 thousand cubic-meter of rain water for every kilogram of nitrogen and per hectare is lost as a reduction of runoff coefficient. Furthermore, a significant correlation between the nitrogen applications amount and runoff is found at a yearly basis with Pearson’s coefficient of 0.93