7,801 research outputs found
Statistical inference framework for source detection of contagion processes on arbitrary network structures
In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating
the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on
an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood
estimation of a partial epidemic realization and involves large scale
simulation of contagion spreading processes from the set of potential source
locations. We present a number of different likelihood estimators that are used
to determine the conditional probabilities associated to observing partial
epidemic realization with particular source location candidates. This
statistical inference framework is also applicable for arbitrary compartment
contagion spreading processes on networks. We compare estimation accuracy of
these approaches in a number of computational experiments performed with the
SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SI (susceptible-infected) and ISS
(ignorant-spreading-stifler) contagion spreading models on synthetic and
real-world complex networks
Dynamic Behavior of Interacting between Epidemics and Cascades on Heterogeneous Networks
Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical
processes over complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a
long history. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact
with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with SIR epidemic
spreading model and local loads sharing cascading failure model. There exists a
critical value of tolerance parameter that whether the epidemic with high
infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in
this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value,
cascading failure cuts off abundant of paths and blocks the spreading of
epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical
value, epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for
estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulation, we verify the
effectiveness of this method in Barab\'asi-Albert (BA) networks
Containing epidemic outbreaks by message-passing techniques
The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of
finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to
minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary)
expected infection under a given epidemic model. Although computing the
expected infection is a hard computational problem, simple and efficient
mean-field approximations have been put forward in the literature in recent
years. The optimization problem can be recast into a constrained one in which
the constraints enforce local mean-field equations describing the average
stationary state of the epidemic process. For a wide class of epidemic models,
including the susceptible-infected-removed and the
susceptible-infected-susceptible models, we define a message-passing approach
to network immunization that allows us to study the statistical properties of
epidemic outbreaks in the presence of immunized nodes as well as to find
(nearly) optimal immunization sets for a given choice of parameters and costs.
The algorithm scales linearly with the size of the graph and it can be made
efficient even on large networks. We compare its performance with topologically
based heuristics, greedy methods, and simulated annealing
PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms
Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt
to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through
these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a
challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and
then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the
observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we
propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse
observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how
social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We
apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity
network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from
this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and
to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the
likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily
routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily
routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the
non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks
ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the
amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a
random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious
population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess
model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative
approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing
symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health
researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases
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