131,844 research outputs found
Great cities look small
Great cities connect people; failed cities isolate people. Despite the
fundamental importance of physical, face-to-face social-ties in the functioning
of cities, these connectivity networks are not explicitly observed in their
entirety. Attempts at estimating them often rely on unrealistic
over-simplifications such as the assumption of spatial homogeneity. Here we
propose a mathematical model of human interactions in terms of a local strategy
of maximising the number of beneficial connections attainable under the
constraint of limited individual travelling-time budgets. By incorporating
census and openly-available online multi-modal transport data, we are able to
characterise the connectivity of geometrically and topologically complex
cities. Beyond providing a candidate measure of greatness, this model allows
one to quantify and assess the impact of transport developments, population
growth, and other infrastructure and demographic changes on a city. Supported
by validations of GDP and HIV infection rates across United States metropolitan
areas, we illustrate the effect of changes in local and city-wide
connectivities by considering the economic impact of two contemporary inter-
and intra-city transport developments in the United Kingdom: High Speed Rail 2
and London Crossrail. This derivation of the model suggests that the scaling of
different urban indicators with population size has an explicitly mechanistic
origin.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure
Degree Ranking Using Local Information
Most real world dynamic networks are evolved very fast with time. It is not
feasible to collect the entire network at any given time to study its
characteristics. This creates the need to propose local algorithms to study
various properties of the network. In the present work, we estimate degree rank
of a node without having the entire network. The proposed methods are based on
the power law degree distribution characteristic or sampling techniques. The
proposed methods are simulated on synthetic networks, as well as on real world
social networks. The efficiency of the proposed methods is evaluated using
absolute and weighted error functions. Results show that the degree rank of a
node can be estimated with high accuracy using only samples of the
network size. The accuracy of the estimation decreases from high ranked to low
ranked nodes. We further extend the proposed methods for random networks and
validate their efficiency on synthetic random networks, that are generated
using Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi model. Results show that the proposed methods can be
efficiently used for random networks as well
The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda.
Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces consistent and unbiased estimates. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n = 4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that this method can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed
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Using an Online Sample to Estimate the Size of an Offline Population.
Online data sources offer tremendous promise to demography and other social sciences, but researchers worry that the group of people who are represented in online data sets can be different from the general population. We show that by sampling and anonymously interviewing people who are online, researchers can learn about both people who are online and people who are offline. Our approach is based on the insight that people everywhere are connected through in-person social networks, such as kin, friendship, and contact networks. We illustrate how this insight can be used to derive an estimator for tracking the digital divide in access to the Internet, an increasingly important dimension of population inequality in the modern world. We conducted a large-scale empirical test of our approach, using an online sample to estimate Internet adoption in five countries (n ≈ 15,000). Our test embedded a randomized experiment whose results can help design future studies. Our approach could be adapted to many other settings, offering one way to overcome some of the major challenges facing demographers in the information age
Quantifying the invisible audience in social networks
This paper combines survey and large-scale log data to examine how well users’ perceptions of their audience match their actual audience on Facebook.AbstractWhen you share content in an online social network, who is listening? Users have scarce information about who actually sees their content, making their audience seem invisible and difficult to estimate. However, understanding this invisible audience can impact both science and design, since perceived audiences influence content production and self-presentation online. In this paper, we combine survey and large-scale log data to examine how well users’ perceptions of their audience match their actual audience on Facebook. We find that social media users consistently underestimate their audience size for their posts, guessing that their audience is just 27% of its true size. Qualitative coding of survey responses reveals folk theories that attempt to reverse-engineer audience size using feedback and friend count, though none of these approaches are particularly accurate. We analyze audience logs for 222,000 Facebook users’ posts over the course of one month and find that publicly visible signals — friend count, likes, and comments — vary widely and do not strongly indicate the audience of a single post. Despite the variation, users typically reach 61% of their friends each month. Together, our results begin to reveal the invisible undercurrents of audience attention and behavior in online social networks.Authored by Michael S. Bernstein, Eytan Bakshy, Moira Burke and Brian Karrer
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