Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid-ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread

Information shares in the U.S. treasury market

This paper is the first to characterize the tatonnement of high-frequency returns from U.S. Treasury spot and futures markets. In particular, we highlight the previously neglected role of the futures markets in price discovery. The lower-bound estimate of bivariate information shares for 30-year Treasury futures typically exceeds 50% from 1998 on. Standard liquidity measures, including the proportion of trades and relative bid-ask spreads, explain daily information shares. These conclusions still hold when one controls for days of macroeconomic announcements. Finally, a 5-dimensional cointegrated system explains a high percentage of Treasury returns. In that system, the 30-year futures contract and the 5-year spot market dominate price discovery. ; Earlier title: The microstructure of bond market tatonnement; Price discovery in the U.S. treasury marketBond market

Dividing the Pie

We examine the consequences of transparency in an experimentalmultiple-dealer market with asymmetrically informed dealers. Fiveprofessional securities traders make a market for a single security.In each trading round, one of the dealers (the "insider") is told thesecurity's true value. We vary both pre-trade and post-tradetransparency by changing the way quote and trade information ispublished. The insider's profits are greatest when price efficiency islowest. Price efficiency, in turn, is reduced by pre-tradetransparency and increased by posttrade transparency. Marketliquidity, measured by dealers' bid-ask spreads, is improved bypre-trade transparency and reduced by post-trade transparency.financial markets;information asymmetry;market microstructure;experimental economics

Limit Order Flow, Market Impact and Optimal Order Sizes: Evidence from NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH Data

In this paper, we provide new empirical evidence on order submission activity and price impacts of limit orders at NASDAQ. Employing NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH data, we find that market participants dominantly submit limit orders with sizes equal to a round lot. Most limit orders are canceled almost immediately after submission if not getting executed. Moreover, only very few market orders walk through the book, i.e., directly move the best ask or bid quote. Estimates of impulse-response functions on the basis of a cointegrated VAR model for quotes and market depth allow us to quantify the market impact of incoming limit orders. We propose a method to predict the optimal size of a limit order conditional on its position in the book and a given fixed level of expected market impact.price impact, limit order, impulse response function, cointegration, optimal order size

Household Income Dynamics in Rural China

Income dynamics, Poverty , Multiple equilibria, China