Relationship between size, effort, duration and number of contributors in large FLOSS projects

This contribution presents initial results in the study of the relationship between size, effort, duration and number of contributors in eleven evolving Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) projects, in the range from approx. 650,000 to 5,300,000 lines of code. Our initial motivation was to estimate how much effort is involved in achieving a large FLOSS system. Software cost estimation for proprietary projects has been an active area of study for many years. However, to our knowledge, no previous similar research has been conducted in FLOSS effort estimation. This research can help planning the evolution of future FLOSS projects and in comparing them with proprietary systems. Companies that are actively developing FLOSS may benefit from such estimates. Such estimates may also help to identify the productivity ’baseline’ for evaluating improvements in process, methods and tools for FLOSS evolution

Will buffer zones around schools in agricultural areas be adequate to protect children from the potential adverse effects of pesticide exposure?

California has proposed limiting agricultural pesticide use within 0.4 km of schools and childcare facilities. However, the 0.4-km buffer may not be appropriate for all pesticides because of differing toxicities, fate, and application methods. Living near pesticide use has been associated with poorer birth outcomes, neurodevelopment, and respiratory function in children. More research about exposures in schools, childcare facilities, and homes is needed. Despite incomplete science, this regulation is an important step to reduce potential exposures to children. The most vulnerable exposure period may be in utero, and future regulations should also aim to reduce exposures to pregnant women

A new common functional coding variant at the DDC gene change renal enzyme activity and modify renal dopamine function.

The intra-renal dopamine (DA) system is highly expressed in the proximal tubule and contributes to Na+ and blood pressure homeostasis, as well as to the development of nephropathy. In the kidney, the enzyme DOPA Decarboxylase (DDC) originating from the circulation. We used a twin/family study design, followed by polymorphism association analysis at DDC locus to elucidate heritable influences on renal DA production. Dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping across the DDC locus on chromosome 7p12 was analyzed by re-sequencing guided by trait-associated genetic markers to discover the responsible genetic variation. We also characterized kinetics of the expressed DDC mutant enzyme. Systematic polymorphism screening across the 15-Exon DDC locus revealed a single coding variant in Exon-14 that was associated with DA excretion and multiple other renal traits indicating pleiotropy. When expressed and characterized in eukaryotic cells, the 462Gln variant displayed lower Vmax (maximal rate of product formation by an enzyme) (21.3 versus 44.9 nmol/min/mg) and lower Km (substrate concentration at which half-maximal product formation is achieved by an enzyme.)(36.2 versus 46.8 μM) than the wild-type (Arg462) allele. The highly heritable DA excretion trait is substantially influenced by a previously uncharacterized common coding variant (Arg462Gln) at the DDC gene that affects multiple renal tubular and glomerular traits, and predicts accelerated functional decline in chronic kidney disease

An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: a case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland

The long-term health effects of air pollution can be estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological study, where the disease data are counts of hospital admissions from populations in small areal units at yearly intervals. Spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over grid level concentrations from an atmospheric dispersion model. We propose a novel fusion model for estimating spatially aggregated pollution concentrations using both the modelled and monitored data, and relate these concentrations to respiratory disease in a new study in Scotland between 2007 and 2011

Does size matter? Experiences and perspectives of BIM implementation from large and SME construction contractors

This paper presents the findings of a qualitative study into the experiences and perspectives of large and SME construction contractors towards the implementation of Building Information Modelling (BIM) within their organisations. Results of the survey were statistically analysed to test for similarity and significant variations between the two groups. The results confirmed that both groups were equally aware of the perceived benefits of BIM, but found that the largest barriers to implementation were the costs associated with the technology and training requirements. Significant differences between the groups included plans to implement BIM and concerns with legal and commercial barriers

Self-avoiding walks crossing a square

We study a restricted class of self-avoiding walks (SAW) which start at the origin (0, 0), end at $(L, L)$, and are entirely contained in the square $[0, L] \times [0, L]$ on the square lattice ${\mathbb Z}^2$. The number of distinct walks is known to grow as $\lambda^{L^2+o(L^2)}$. We estimate $\lambda = 1.744550 \pm 0.000005$ as well as obtaining strict upper and lower bounds, $1.628 < \lambda < 1.782.$ We give exact results for the number of SAW of length $2L + 2K$ for $K = 0, 1, 2$ and asymptotic results for $K = o(L^{1/3})$. We also consider the model in which a weight or {\em fugacity} $x$ is associated with each step of the walk. This gives rise to a canonical model of a phase transition. For $x < 1/\mu$ the average length of a SAW grows as $L$, while for $x > 1/\mu$ it grows as $L^2$. Here $\mu$ is the growth constant of unconstrained SAW in ${\mathbb Z}^2$. For $x = 1/\mu$ we provide numerical evidence, but no proof, that the average walk length grows as $L^{4/3}$. We also consider Hamiltonian walks under the same restriction. They are known to grow as $\tau^{L^2+o(L^2)}$ on the same $L \times L$ lattice. We give precise estimates for $\tau$ as well as upper and lower bounds, and prove that $\tau < \lambda.$Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. Paper updated and reorganised following refereein

Data Mining in Electronic Commerce

Modern business is rushing toward e-commerce. If the transition is done properly, it enables better management, new services, lower transaction costs and better customer relations. Success depends on skilled information technologists, among whom are statisticians. This paper focuses on some of the contributions that statisticians are making to help change the business world, especially through the development and application of data mining methods. This is a very large area, and the topics we cover are chosen to avoid overlap with other papers in this special issue, as well as to respect the limitations of our expertise. Inevitably, electronic commerce has raised and is raising fresh research problems in a very wide range of statistical areas, and we try to emphasize those challenges.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000204 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Highest Energy Cosmic Rays, Gamma Rays and Neutrinos: Facts, Fancy and Resolution

Although cosmic rays were discovered 90 years ago, we do not know how and where they are accelerated. There is compelling evidence that the highest energy cosmic rays are extra-galactic -- they cannot be contained by our galaxy's magnetic field anyway because their gyroradius exceeds its dimensions. Elementary elementary-particle physics dictates a universal upper limit on their energy of $5\times10^{19}$ eV, the so-called Greisen-Kuzmin-Zatsepin cutoff; however, particles in excess of this energy have been observed, adding one more puzzle to the cosmic ray mystery. Mystery is nonetheless fertile ground for progress: we will review the facts and mention some very speculative interpretations. There is indeed a realistic hope that the oldest problem in astronomy will be resolved soon by ambitious experimentation: air shower arrays of $10^4$ km$^2$ area, arrays of air Cerenkov detectors and kilometer-scale neutrino observatories.Comment: Latex2e with ws-p10x7.cls (included), 14 pages, 10 postscript figures. Proceedings of the Lepton-Photon Symposium, Rome, July 200