863 research outputs found
False Identity Detection Using Complex Sentences
The use of faked identities is a current issue for both physical and online security. In this paper, we test the differences between subjects who report their true identity and the ones who give fake identity responding to control, simple, and complex questions. Asking complex questions is a new procedure for increasing liars' cognitive load, which is presented in this paper for the first time. The experiment consisted in an identity verification task, during which response time and errors were collected. Twenty participants were instructed to lie about their identity, whereas the other 20 were asked to respond truthfully. Different machine learning (ML) models were trained, reaching an accuracy level around 90-95% in distinguishing liars from truth tellers based on error rate and response time. Then, to evaluate the generalization and replicability of these models, a new sample of 10 participants were tested and classified, obtaining an accuracy between 80 and 90%. In short, results indicate that liars may be efficiently distinguished from truth tellers on the basis of their response times and errors to complex questions, with an adequate generalization accuracy of the classification models
What Your Username Says About You
Usernames are ubiquitous on the Internet, and they are often suggestive of
user demographics. This work looks at the degree to which gender and language
can be inferred from a username alone by making use of unsupervised morphology
induction to decompose usernames into sub-units. Experimental results on the
two tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed morphological features
compared to a character n-gram baseline
Predicting the replicability of social science lab experiments
We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statistical models. With data from four large-scale replication projects in experimental psychology and economics, and techniques from machine learning, we train predictive models and study which variables drive predictable replication. The models predicts binary replication with a cross-validated accuracy rate of 70% (AUC of 0.77) and estimates of relative effect sizes with a Spearman rho of 0.38. The accuracy level is similar to market-aggregated beliefs of peer scientists [1, 2]. The predictive power is validated in a pre-registered out of sample test of the outcome of [3], where 71% (AUC of 0.73) of replications are predicted correctly and effect size correlations amount to rho = 0.25. Basic features such as the sample and effect sizes in original papers, and whether reported effects are single-variable main effects or two-variable interactions, are predictive of successful replication. The models presented in this paper are simple tools to produce cheap, prognostic replicability metrics. These models could be useful in institutionalizing the process of evaluation of new findings and guiding resources to those direct replications that are likely to be most informative
Negative Results in Computer Vision: A Perspective
A negative result is when the outcome of an experiment or a model is not what
is expected or when a hypothesis does not hold. Despite being often overlooked
in the scientific community, negative results are results and they carry value.
While this topic has been extensively discussed in other fields such as social
sciences and biosciences, less attention has been paid to it in the computer
vision community. The unique characteristics of computer vision, particularly
its experimental aspect, call for a special treatment of this matter. In this
paper, I will address what makes negative results important, how they should be
disseminated and incentivized, and what lessons can be learned from cognitive
vision research in this regard. Further, I will discuss issues such as computer
vision and human vision interaction, experimental design and statistical
hypothesis testing, explanatory versus predictive modeling, performance
evaluation, model comparison, as well as computer vision research culture
Can laypeople predict the replicability of social science studies without expert intervention: an exploratory study
The low replication rate of published studies has long concerned the social
science community, making understanding the replicability a critical problem.
Several studies have shown that relevant research communities can make
predictions about the replicability of individual studies with above-chance
accuracy. Follow-up work further indicates that laypeople can also achieve
above-chance accuracy in predicting replicability when experts interpret the
studies into short descriptions that are more accessible for laypeople. The
involvement of scarce expert resources may make these methods expensive from
financial and time perspectives. In this work, we explored whether laypeople
can predict the replicability of social science studies without expert
intervention. We presented laypeople with raw materials truncated from
published social science papers and elicited their answers to questions related
to the paper. Our results suggested that laypeople were engaged in this
technical task, providing reasonable and self-contained answers. The majority
of them also demonstrated a good understanding of the material. However, the
solicited information had limited predictive power on the actual replication
outcomes. We further discuss several lessons we learned compared to the
approach with expert intervention to inspire future works
- …