Estimating county health statistics with twitter

Understanding the relationships among environment, behav-ior, and health is a core concern of public health researchers. While a number of recent studies have investigated the use of social media to track infectious diseases such as influenza, lit-tle work has been done to determine if other health concerns can be inferred. In this paper, we present a large-scale study of 27 health-related statistics, including obesity, health insur-ance coverage, access to healthy foods, and teen birth rates. We perform a linguistic analysis of the Twitter activity in the top 100 most populous counties in the U.S., and find a signifi-cant correlation with 6 of the 27 health statistics. When com-pared to traditional models based on demographic variables alone, we find that augmenting models with Twitter-derived information improves predictive accuracy for 20 of 27 statis-tics, suggesting that this new methodology can complement existing approaches

Mining the Demographics of Political Sentiment from Twitter Using Learning from Label Proportions

Opinion mining and demographic attribute inference have many applications in social science. In this paper, we propose models to infer daily joint probabilities of multiple latent attributes from Twitter data, such as political sentiment and demographic attributes. Since it is costly and time-consuming to annotate data for traditional supervised classification, we instead propose scalable Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) models for demographic and opinion inference using U.S. Census, national and state political polls, and Cook partisan voting index as population level data. In LLP classification settings, the training data is divided into a set of unlabeled bags, where only the label distribution in of each bag is known, removing the requirement of instance-level annotations. Our proposed LLP model, Weighted Label Regularization (WLR), provides a scalable generalization of prior work on label regularization to support weights for samples inside bags, which is applicable in this setting where bags are arranged hierarchically (e.g., county-level bags are nested inside of state-level bags). We apply our model to Twitter data collected in the year leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, producing estimates of the relationships among political sentiment and demographics over time and place. We find that our approach closely tracks traditional polling data stratified by demographic category, resulting in error reductions of 28-44% over baseline approaches. We also provide descriptive evaluations showing how the model may be used to estimate interactions among many variables and to identify linguistic temporal variation, capabilities which are typically not feasible using traditional polling methods

Understanding and Measuring Psychological Stress using Social Media

A body of literature has demonstrated that users' mental health conditions, such as depression and anxiety, can be predicted from their social media language. There is still a gap in the scientific understanding of how psychological stress is expressed on social media. Stress is one of the primary underlying causes and correlates of chronic physical illnesses and mental health conditions. In this paper, we explore the language of psychological stress with a dataset of 601 social media users, who answered the Perceived Stress Scale questionnaire and also consented to share their Facebook and Twitter data. Firstly, we find that stressed users post about exhaustion, losing control, increased self-focus and physical pain as compared to posts about breakfast, family-time, and travel by users who are not stressed. Secondly, we find that Facebook language is more predictive of stress than Twitter language. Thirdly, we demonstrate how the language based models thus developed can be adapted and be scaled to measure county-level trends. Since county-level language is easily available on Twitter using the Streaming API, we explore multiple domain adaptation algorithms to adapt user-level Facebook models to Twitter language. We find that domain-adapted and scaled social media-based measurements of stress outperform sociodemographic variables (age, gender, race, education, and income), against ground-truth survey-based stress measurements, both at the user- and the county-level in the U.S. Twitter language that scores higher in stress is also predictive of poorer health, less access to facilities and lower socioeconomic status in counties. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of using social media as a new tool for monitoring stress levels of both individuals and counties.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of ICWSM 201

Correcting Sociodemographic Selection Biases for Population Prediction from Social Media

Social media is increasingly used for large-scale population predictions, such as estimating community health statistics. However, social media users are not typically a representative sample of the intended population -- a "selection bias". Within the social sciences, such a bias is typically addressed with restratification techniques, where observations are reweighted according to how under- or over-sampled their socio-demographic groups are. Yet, restratifaction is rarely evaluated for improving prediction. Across four tasks of predicting U.S. county population health statistics from Twitter, we find standard restratification techniques provide no improvement and often degrade prediction accuracies. The core reasons for this seems to be both shrunken estimates (reduced variance of model predicted values) and sparse estimates of each population's socio-demographics. We thus develop and evaluate three methods to address these problems: estimator redistribution to account for shrinking, and adaptive binning and informed smoothing to handle sparse socio-demographic estimates. We show that each of these methods significantly outperforms the standard restratification approaches. Combining approaches, we find substantial improvements over non-restratified models, yielding a 53.0% increase in predictive accuracy (R^2) in the case of surveyed life satisfaction, and a 17.8% average increase across all tasks

Effectiveness of a Faith-placed Cardiovascular Health Promotion Intervention for Rural Adults

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in the US. Further, rural US adults experience disproportionately high CVD prevalence and mortality compared to non-rural. Cardiovascular risk-reduction interventions for rural adults have shown short-term effectiveness, but long-term maintenance of outcomes remains a challenge. Faith organizations offer promise as collaborative partners for translating evidence-based interventions to reduce CVD. Methods: We adapted and implemented a collaborative, faith-placed, CVD risk-reduction intervention in rural Illinois. We used a quasi-experimental, pre-post design to compare changes in dietary and physical activity among participants. Intervention components included Heart Smart for Women (HSFW), an evidence-based program implemented weekly for 12 weeks followed by Heart Smart Maintenance (HSM), implemented monthly for two years. Participants engaged in HSFW only, HSM only, or both. We used regression and generalized estimating equations models to examine changes in outcomes after one year. Results: Among participants who completed both baseline and one-year surveys (n = 131), HSFW+HSM participants had significantly higher vegetable consumption (p = .007) and combined fruit/vegetable consumption (p = .01) compared to the HSM-only group at one year. We found no differences in physical activity. Conclusion: Improving and maintaining CVD-risk behaviors is a persistent challenge in rural populations. Advancing research to improve our understanding of effective translation of CVD risk-reduction interventions in rural populations is critical

360 Quantified Self

Wearable devices with a wide range of sensors have contributed to the rise of the Quantified Self movement, where individuals log everything ranging from the number of steps they have taken, to their heart rate, to their sleeping patterns. Sensors do not, however, typically sense the social and ambient environment of the users, such as general life style attributes or information about their social network. This means that the users themselves, and the medical practitioners, privy to the wearable sensor data, only have a narrow view of the individual, limited mainly to certain aspects of their physical condition. In this paper we describe a number of use cases for how social media can be used to complement the check-up data and those from sensors to gain a more holistic view on individuals' health, a perspective we call the 360 Quantified Self. Health-related information can be obtained from sources as diverse as food photo sharing, location check-ins, or profile pictures. Additionally, information from a person's ego network can shed light on the social dimension of wellbeing which is widely acknowledged to be of utmost importance, even though they are currently rarely used for medical diagnosis. We articulate a long-term vision describing the desirable list of technical advances and variety of data to achieve an integrated system encompassing Electronic Health Records (EHR), data from wearable devices, alongside information derived from social media data.Comment: QCRI Technical Repor

Deer Herd Management Using the Internet: A Comparative Study of California Targeted By Data Mining the Internet

An ongoing project to investigate the use of the internet as an information source for decision support identified the decline of the California deer population as a significant issue. Using Google Alerts, an automated keyword search tool, text and numerical data were collected from a daily internet search and categorized by region and topic to allow for identification of information trends. This simple data mining approach determined that California is one of only four states that do not currently report total, finalized deer harvest (kill) data online and that it is the only state that has reduced the amount of information made available over the internet in recent years. Contradictory information identified by the internet data mining prompted the analysis described in this paper indicating that the graphical information presented on the California Fish and Wildlife website significantly understates the severity of the deer population decline over the past 50 years. This paper presents a survey of how states use the internet in their deer management programs and an estimate of the California deer population over the last 100 years. It demonstrates how any organization can use the internet for data collection and discovery