Tools for modelling and simulating migration-based preservation

This report describes two tools for modelling and simulating the costs and risks of using IT storage systems for the long-term archiving of file-based AV assets. The tools include a model of storage costs, the ingest and access of files, the possibility of data corruption and loss from a range of mechanisms, and the impact of having limited resources with which to fulfill access requests and preservation actions. Applications include archive planning, development of a technology strategy, cost estimation for business planning, operational decision support, staff training and generally promoting awareness of the issues and challenges archives face in digital preservation

Institutions and Trade: Competitors or Complements in Economic Development?

A recent paper by Dowrick and Golley (2004) finds that the impact of trade on growth varies with income. In particular, during the period 1980-2000, trade is observed to yield larger benefits for the more advanced economies. This result is backed up by Dejong and Ripoll (2005) who show that the richer countries benefit more from tariff reduction than the poorer countries. These findings raise the question, what is it about high levels of per capita income that enable richer economies to take better advantage of trade? It appears that the reason behind the success of the high income economies is the high quality institutions. These institutions not only boost growth directly but they impact economic performance indirectly by improving trade. We capture the complementarity between institutions and trade by estimating an empirical growth model which includes an interactive term involving these two variables. Better quality institutions are indicative of lower transaction costs which facilitates trade. It also ensures better distribution of the gains from trade paving the way for further trade and growth.

Institutions, policies and economic development. What are the causes of the shadow economy?

What are the causes of the shadow economy? We provide new answers to this old question. The sharp distinction between theoretical priors on the institutional determinants of the shadow economy and the technique used for its measurement is the first novel contribution of the paper. The second innovation is that, unlike previ- ous contributions, we document a specific role for institutional variables in shaping economic incentives to "go underground", irrespective of the stage of economic de- velopment. The third innovation is that - after controlling for institutional quality and for the level of development - public expenditures have a negative impact on the shadow economy.Institutional quality, shadow economy.

Spatial support vector regression to detect silent errors in the exascale era

As the exascale era approaches, the increasing capacity of high-performance computing (HPC) systems with targeted power and energy budget goals introduces significant challenges in reliability. Silent data corruptions (SDCs) or silent errors are one of the major sources that corrupt the executionresults of HPC applications without being detected. In this work, we explore a low-memory-overhead SDC detector, by leveraging epsilon-insensitive support vector machine regression, to detect SDCs that occur in HPC applications that can be characterized by an impact error bound. The key contributions are three fold. (1) Our design takes spatialfeatures (i.e., neighbouring data values for each data point in a snapshot) into training data, such that little memory overhead (less than 1%) is introduced. (2) We provide an in-depth study on the detection ability and performance with different parameters, and we optimize the detection range carefully. (3) Experiments with eight real-world HPC applications show thatour detector can achieve the detection sensitivity (i.e., recall) up to 99% yet suffer a less than 1% of false positive rate for most cases. Our detector incurs low performance overhead, 5% on average, for all benchmarks studied in the paper. Compared with other state-of-the-art techniques, our detector exhibits the best tradeoff considering the detection ability and overheads.This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research Program, under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357, by FI-DGR 2013 scholarship, by HiPEAC PhD Collaboration Grant, the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under the Mont-blanc 2 Project (www.montblanc-project.eu), grant agreement no. 610402, and TIN2015-65316-P.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Is two better than one? Effects on growth of Bank-Fund interaction

We estimate the impact on economic growth of the joint participation in both IMF and WB programs. More specifically, using panel data for 128 developing countries over the period 1982-2005, and employing 2SLS to control for the possible endogeneity of participation in an IMF/WB program, we find that even if the WB and the IMF do not boost growth when they operate by themselves, the interaction term between these two organization is positive and significant at conventional levels. However, when we restrict the sample to low and lower middle income countries only (for which Bank-Fund cooperation is more “formalized”) the coefficient of the interaction term is not significant. Thus, so far, a trade-off emerges between a greater precision in the definition of Bank-Fund cooperation and the reliability of the estimates due to an insufficient number of observations.

An Excess of Corruption and a Deficit of Toilets: American and Karzai’s Successes in Afghanistan

Afghanistan might be characterized as having a paucity of toilets and an excess of corruption. These two aspects capture the post-Taliban essence of the country. The “achievements” of Hamid Karzai the de facto mayor of Kabul, the United States and NATO in Afghanistan after more than eight years of U.S. occupation and approximately $25 billion in disbursed (2001-9) non-military aid, include Afghanistan being ranked as the worst place in the world for sanitation (per UNICEF data) and in 2009 posting 179th (out of 180 countries) in Transparency International’s corruption-perceptions index. The latter figure for 2005 showed Afghanistan ranking 117th out of 159 countries

Family Control and the Rent-Seeking Society

The small number of very large family-controlled corporate groups in many countries combined with their long continuity of control and ability to act discretely give these organizations a comparative advantage in political rent-seeking. This advantage is a key part of a self-reinforcing system whereby oligarchic family corporate control, political rent seeking, and low general levels of trust combine to stymie growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39971/3/wp585.pd

Gasoline prices and road fatalities: international evidence

This study utilizes data for 144 countries from 1991 to 2010 to present the first international estimates of the gasoline price elasticity of road fatalities. We instrument each country’s gasoline price with that country’s oil reserves and the yearly international crude oil price to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that the average reduction in road fatalities resulting from a 10% increase in the gasoline pump price is in the order of 3%–6%. Around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of global fuel subsidies

Family Control and the Rent-Seeking Society

The small number of very large family-controlled corporate groups in many countries combined with their long continuity of control and ability to act discretely give these organizations a comparative advantage in political rent-seeking. This advantage is a key part of a self-reinforcing system whereby oligarchic family corporate control, political rent seeking, and low general levels of trust combine to stymie growth.