Inferring Unusual Crowd Events From Mobile Phone Call Detail Records

The pervasiveness and availability of mobile phone data offer the opportunity of discovering usable knowledge about crowd behaviors in urban environments. Cities can leverage such knowledge in order to provide better services (e.g., public transport planning, optimized resource allocation) and safer cities. Call Detail Record (CDR) data represents a practical data source to detect and monitor unusual events considering the high level of mobile phone penetration, compared with GPS equipped and open devices. In this paper, we provide a methodology that is able to detect unusual events from CDR data that typically has low accuracy in terms of space and time resolution. Moreover, we introduce a concept of unusual event that involves a large amount of people who expose an unusual mobility behavior. Our careful consideration of the issues that come from coarse-grained CDR data ultimately leads to a completely general framework that can detect unusual crowd events from CDR data effectively and efficiently. Through extensive experiments on real-world CDR data for a large city in Africa, we demonstrate that our method can detect unusual events with 16% higher recall and over 10 times higher precision, compared to state-of-the-art methods. We implement a visual analytics prototype system to help end users analyze detected unusual crowd events to best suit different application scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on the detection of unusual events from CDR data with considerations of its temporal and spatial sparseness and distinction between user unusual activities and daily routines.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

Cross-comparative analysis of evacuation behavior after earthquakes using mobile phone data

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which can be observed instantaneously after the shock

Distributions of Human Exposure to Ozone During Commuting Hours in Connecticut using the Cellular Device Network

Epidemiologic studies have established associations between various air pollutants and adverse health outcomes for adults and children. Due to high costs of monitoring air pollutant concentrations for subjects enrolled in a study, statisticians predict exposure concentrations from spatial models that are developed using concentrations monitored at a few sites. In the absence of detailed information on when and where subjects move during the study window, researchers typically assume that the subjects spend their entire day at home, school or work. This assumption can potentially lead to large exposure assignment bias. In this study, we aim to determine the distribution of the exposure assignment bias for an air pollutant (ozone) when subjects are assumed to be static as compared to accounting for individual mobility. To achieve this goal, we use cell-phone mobility data on approximately 400,000 users in the state of Connecticut during a week in July, 2016, in conjunction with an ozone pollution model, and compare individual ozone exposure assuming static versus mobile scenarios. Our results show that exposure models not taking mobility into account often provide poor estimates of individuals commuting into and out of urban areas: the average 8-hour maximum difference between these estimates can exceed 80 parts per billion (ppb). However, for most of the population, the difference in exposure assignment between the two models is small, thereby validating many current epidemiologic studies focusing on exposure to ozone

CT-Mapper: Mapping Sparse Multimodal Cellular Trajectories using a Multilayer Transportation Network

Mobile phone data have recently become an attractive source of information about mobility behavior. Since cell phone data can be captured in a passive way for a large user population, they can be harnessed to collect well-sampled mobility information. In this paper, we propose CT-Mapper, an unsupervised algorithm that enables the mapping of mobile phone traces over a multimodal transport network. One of the main strengths of CT-Mapper is its capability to map noisy sparse cellular multimodal trajectories over a multilayer transportation network where the layers have different physical properties and not only to map trajectories associated with a single layer. Such a network is modeled by a large multilayer graph in which the nodes correspond to metro/train stations or road intersections and edges correspond to connections between them. The mapping problem is modeled by an unsupervised HMM where the observations correspond to sparse user mobile trajectories and the hidden states to the multilayer graph nodes. The HMM is unsupervised as the transition and emission probabilities are inferred using respectively the physical transportation properties and the information on the spatial coverage of antenna base stations. To evaluate CT-Mapper we collected cellular traces with their corresponding GPS trajectories for a group of volunteer users in Paris and vicinity (France). We show that CT-Mapper is able to accurately retrieve the real cell phone user paths despite the sparsity of the observed trace trajectories. Furthermore our transition probability model is up to 20% more accurate than other naive models.Comment: Under revision in Computer Communication Journa