Valuation of Tencent Holdings Ltd.

Tencent and Facebook, the two social media behemoths, occupied prominent roles in the technology media in 2017. Tencent has surpassed Facebook in terms of market capitalization for the first time, making it the world's fifth biggest corporation by market capitalisation, after only Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. Tencent's stock price has increased by more than 40% since the beginning of 2020, owing to the favourable epidemic situation and the catalysis of its explosive games. As a result, Tencent's market capitalization has surpassed that of Facebook, making it the world's most well-known social media company for the second time. Aiming to give a helpful investment recommendation, this thesis focuses on the development trend of Tencent, and the company's future prospects.Tencent e Facebook, os dois gigantes dos meios de comunicação social, ocupam papéis proeminentes nos meios tecnológicos em 2017. Tencent ultrapassou o Facebook pela primeira vez em termos de capitalização bolsista, tornando-se a quinta maior empresa do mundo por capitalização de mercado, a seguir apenas à Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, e Amazon. O preço das ações da Tencent aumentou mais de 40% desde o início de 2020, devido à situação epidémica favorável e à catálise dos seus jogos explosivos. Como resultado, a capitalização de mercado da Tencent ultrapassou a do Facebook, tornando-a pela segunda vez na empresa de comunicação social mais conhecida do mundo. Com o objetivo de dar uma proposta de investimento útil, este projeto centra-se na tendência de desenvolvimento de Tencent, e nas perspetivas de futuro da empresa

An empirical study on credit evaluation of SMEs based on detailed loan data

Small and micro-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are an important part of Chinese economic system.The establishment of credit evaluating model of SMEs can effectively help financial intermediaries to reveal credit risk of enterprises and reduce the cost of enterprises information acquisition. Besides it can also serve as a guide to investors which also helps companies with good credit. This thesis conducts an empirical study based on loan data from a Chinese bank of loans granted to SMEs. The study aims to develop a data-driven model that can accurately predict if a given loan has an acceptable risk from the bank’s perspective, or not. Furthermore, we test different methods to deal with the problem of unbalanced class and uncredible sample. Lastly, the importance of variables is analyzed. Remaining Unpaid Principal, Floating Interest Rate, Time Until Maturity Date, Real Interest Rate, Amount of Loan all have significant effects on the final result of the prediction.The main contribution of this study is to build a credit evaluation model of small and micro enterprises, which not only helps commercial banks accurately identify the credit risk of small and micro enterprises, but also helps to overcome creditdifficulties of small and micro enterprises.As pequenas e microempresas constituem uma parte importante do sistema económico chinês. A definição de um modelo de avaliação de crédito para estas empresas pode ajudar os intermediários financeiros a revelarem o risco de crédito das empresas e a reduzirem o custo de aquisição de informação das empresas. Além disso, pode igualmente servir como guia para os investidores, auxiliando também empresas com bom crédito. Na presente tese apresenta-se um estudo empírico baseado em dados de um banco chinês relativos a empréstimos concedidos a pequenas e microempresas. O estudo visa desenvolver um modelo empírico que possa prever com precisão se um determinado empréstimo tem um risco aceitável do ponto de vista do banco, ou não. Além disso, são efetuados testes com diferentes métodos que permitem lidar com os problemas de classes de dados não balanceadas e de amostras que não refletem o problema real a modelar. Finalmente, é analisada a importância relativa das variáveis. O montante da dívida por pagar, a taxa de juro variável, o prazo até a data de vencimento, a taxa de juro real, o montante do empréstimo, todas têm efeitos significativos no resultado final da previsão. O principal contributo deste estudo é, assim, a construção de um modelo de avaliação de crédito que permite apoiar os bancos comerciais a identificarem com precisão o risco de crédito das pequenas e micro empresas e ajudar também estas empresas a superarem as suas dificuldades de crédito

Building reliable credit rating system for firms in China.

Bai Ling.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80).Abstracts in English and Chinese.INTRODUCTION --- p.1Chapter 1.1 --- Background --- p.1Chapter 1.2 --- Research Approach and Design --- p.4Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.5LITERATURE REVIEW ON CREDIT RISK MODELING --- p.6Chapter 2.1 --- Overview --- p.6Chapter 2.2 --- Discriminant Analysis --- p.8Chapter 2.3 --- Logit Regression --- p.10Chapter 2.4 --- Regression and Classification Tree (CART) --- p.10Chapter 2.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.12FALSE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS DETECTION --- p.13Chapter 3.1 --- Overview --- p.13Chapter 3.2 --- Empirical Studies on Financial Scandal and False Financial Statements (FFS) --- p.14Chapter 3.3 --- False Financial Statements (FFS) Detection --- p.17Chapter 3.4 --- Chapter Summary --- p.23RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES IN CREDIT SCORING & FALSE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS DETECTION --- p.25Chapter 4.1 --- Overview --- p.25Chapter 4.2 --- Logit Regression --- p.26Chapter 4.3 --- Classification and Regression Tree (CART) --- p.31Chapter 4.4 --- Chapter Summary --- p.34PROPOSED STUDY FRAMEWORK --- p.35Chapter 5.1 --- The COMPLETE Framework --- p.35Chapter 5.2 --- Rating Process --- p.43Chapter 5.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.45DEVELOPING THE CREDIT SCORING MODEL --- p.46Chapter 6.1 --- Overview --- p.46Chapter 6.2 --- Sample --- p.46Chapter 6.3 --- Variables --- p.47Chapter 6.4 --- Result of the Univariate Analysis --- p.49Chapter 6.5 --- Develop the Bankruptcy Risk Model with Logit Regression --- p.50Chapter 6.6 --- Chapter Summary --- p.54INVESTIGATING FALSE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS --- p.55Chapter 7.1 --- Overview --- p.55Chapter 7.2 --- Impact of False Financial Statements (FFS) on Credit Risk Assessments - Evidence from Lantian's Case --- p.55Chapter 7.3 --- Evaluating the Trustworthiness Aspect for Lantian --- p.56Chapter 7.4 --- Analyze FFS with Statistical Tools --- p.59Chapter 7.5 --- Chapter Summary --- p.73SUMMARY --- p.75REFERENCES --- p.7

Artificial Intelligence as Evidence

This article explores issues that govern the admissibility of Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) applications in civil and criminal cases, from the perspective of a federal trial judge and two computer scientists, one of whom also is an experienced attorney. It provides a detailed yet intelligible discussion of what AI is and how it works, a history of its development, and a description of the wide variety of functions that it is designed to accomplish, stressing that AI applications are ubiquitous, both in the private and public sectors. Applications today include: health care, education, employment-related decision-making, finance, law enforcement, and the legal profession. The article underscores the importance of determining the validity of an AI application (i.e., how accurately the AI measures, classifies, or predicts what it is designed to), as well as its reliability (i.e., the consistency with which the AI produces accurate results when applied to the same or substantially similar circumstances), in deciding whether it should be admitted into evidence in civil and criminal cases. The article further discusses factors that can affect the validity and reliability of AI evidence, including bias of various types, “function creep,” lack of transparency and explainability, and the sufficiency of the objective testing of AI applications before they are released for public use. The article next provides an in-depth discussion of the evidentiary principles that govern whether AI evidence should be admitted in court cases, a topic which, at present, is not the subject of comprehensive analysis in decisional law. The focus of this discussion is on providing a step-by-step analysis of the most important issues, and the factors that affect decisions on whether to admit AI evidence. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of practical suggestions intended to assist lawyers and judges as they are called upon to introduce, object to, or decide on whether to admit AI evidence

Innovation in a Circular Economy: Conceptual, empirical and policy underpinnings for transition through an eco-innovation pathway

As the world seeks answers to the defining challenges of climate change and environmental sustainability, several hypotheses are being canvased in the search for a solution to decouple economic growth and social development from resource exploitation. Among those, the circular economy (CE) emerged as an operational response defined by its opposition to a harvesting-wasting economic model, proposing instead restorative and regenerative activities. But reconfiguring existing paradigms is not trivial. Aligning innovation activities with more sustainable paths is a central requirement for the desired socio-techno-economic paradigm shift. This work proposes that a new pathway is needed for gearing the sustainable innovation agenda towards a CE, and foster structural change. CE-inducing eco-innovation (EI) must, however, be monitored and measured, and implications to socio-cultural agents, organisational strategies and policy priorities have to be bore in mind, if we are to ascertain if progress is being made. As CE and the EI – CE nexus research is still in its early days, this work adds to the discussion by contributing (1) to the theoretical development of these concepts and their interrelations; (2) to the empirical definition of pro CE EI proxies; and (3) to the prospective anticipation of CE developments. Within the sustainability debate, and using an innovation studies perspective, this research adopted a mixed methods approach, using both quantitative and qualitative methods such as literature reviews, bibliometrics, patent and trademark analysis (using the specific case of Portugal), and foresight techniques (Delphi study). The overall findings suggest that CE’s main ideas are arguably timely. CE’s establishment within the sustainability debate seems, nevertheless, dependent on overcoming short term barriers constraining its further development, of technological and economic nature, but also of a socio-cultural kind. CE is argued as a multidimensional, multi-actor approach reliant on “systemic transformative” innovation, thus dependent on a combination of “harder”, (technological, R&D-driven), and “softer” (non-technological change in social and business culture) knowledge. The empirical diagnosis of an innovation system’s pro circularity tendencies proved to be informative as to assess convergence to circularity. In the Portuguese case, it successfully shed light on ongoing dynamics related with signs of effective transformation towards CE activities, even if highlighting structural limitations associated with systemic failures regarding actors and networks. Redirecting innovation systems towards a more “circular” paradigm is, therefore, deeply dependent on an institutional “coordination role” enabling “framework conditions” directly linked to a systemic action. That is, associating bottom-up measures to top-down policies in a coherent strategic roadmap, in order to avoid mismatches and contradictory incentives. This pointed to the usefulness of rethinking innovation policy design. In one hand, to address market and system failures, leading to underinvestment and lack of connectivity in innovation. In the other hand, to promote the diffusion of CE related information for enterprises and civil society, in order to encourage market awareness and change mind-sets towards “circular” behaviours. As the conceptual and practical implementation challenge remains pressing, this work added important underpinnings for fine-tuning a CE inducing “policy mix”.Num mundo crescentemente interdependente, as alterações climáticas e a sustentabilidade ambiental são questões globais complexas. A importância de dissociar desenvolvimento da exploração de recursos tem propiciado um alargamento de horizontes a novos conceitos. Nesse contexto, a economia circular emergiu como uma resposta operacional, definida pela sua oposição ao modelo económico atual de exploração/desperdício. Contrapõe, ao invés, processos restaurativos e regenerativos. A reconfiguração dos paradigmas existentes, a este nível, não é, contudo, algo trivial. Uma vez que o alinhamento das atividades de inovação com objetivos mais sustentáveis é um requisito central na alteração de paradigma sócio-tecno-económico, este trabalho foca a necessidade de orientar a agenda de inovação para a “circularidade”. A eco-inovação pro-circularidade deve, no entanto, ser monitorizada e medida, e as implicações para os agentes socioculturais, estratégias organizacionais e prioridades políticas levadas em conta, se quisermos verificar o seu progresso. Nesse âmbito, pretendeu-se contribuir para o debate em curso contribuindo para: 1) uma melhor compreensão teórica do papel da eco-inovação na implementação de uma economia circular; 2) a definição e teste de proxies empíricas de inovação pro-circularidade; 3) o desenvolvimento de uma visão prospetiva de futuros desenvolvimentos nesta área. No contexto do debate da sustentabilidade, e usando uma perspetiva baseada nos estudos da inovação, foram adotados métodos quantitativos e qualitativos, incluindo revisões de literatura, métodos bibliométricos, análise de patentes e de marcas comerciais (usando o caso específico de Portugal), assim como o uso do método prospetivo Delphi. As conclusões gerais sugerem que as principais ideias da economia circular são indiscutivelmente oportunas. Dentro do debate da sustentabilidade o estabelecimento de uma economia circular parece, no entanto, dependente de se vencerem barreiras de curto prazo, de natureza tecnológica, económica e sociocultural. A abordagem preconizada pela economia circular é assim tida como multidimensional, multi-ator, dependente de uma inovação sistémica "transformadora”, compreendendo não só inovação tecnológica, mas também mudanças institucionais abrangentes quanto a políticas públicas, mercados e práticas sociais. O diagnóstico empírico das tendências pró-circularidade de um sistema de inovação provou ser informativo nessa avaliação. No caso português, permitiu conhecer as atuais dinâmicas, sublinhando sinais de transformação efetivas em direção a atividades circulares, ao mesmo tempo que assinalou as limitações estruturais associadas a falhas sistémicas quanto aos atores e redes (interconexões). Redirecionar os sistemas de inovação para um paradigma mais “circular” é, portanto, profundamente dependente de um “papel de coordenação” institucional que permita “condições de enquadramento” diretamente ligadas a uma ação sistémica. Isto é, associando medidas bottom-up e top-down num roteiro estratégico coerente, a fim de evitar desequilíbrios e incentivos contraditórios. Importa, por isso, repensar igualmente os instrumentos das políticas de inovação. Por um lado, resolvendo falhas de mercado e sistema, que levam a sub-investimento e falta de conectividade. Por outro, promovendo a difusão de informação para empresas e sociedade civil, a fim de estimular a conscientização e mudar mentalidades em relação a comportamentos “circulares”. O desafio de implementação continua a ser premente, este trabalho pretendeu contudo acrescentar ao debate tendo em vista contribuir para o ajuste do “mix de políticas” indutoras de circularidade

Social policy, state legitimacy and strategic actors: governmentality and counter-conduct in authoritarian regime

Far from acting defensively to preserve the social relations and red ideologies that originally gave it power, the Chinese Communist Party is leading a social and economic transformation that could be expected to lead to direct challenges to its authority. The surprising degree of change in the Chinese socio-economic transformation and the fact that this transformation has been going on for forty years now and has not yet resulted in fundamental challenges subverting its rule have inspired my study. The overarching theoretical enquiry in my dissertation resonates with one of the most important theoretical questions in political sociology: how does the state maintain compliance from the governed in periods of rapid social and economic transformation, and how does the logic of its governmentality change along with its priorities? My work is built on the Weberian and Gramscian tradition of understanding state rule and highlights the individual’s rationale of “believing” and “consent”, but also takes account of the Foucaudian “governmentality” the state uses to maintain its rule and investigates the underlined rationality. Empirically, I take advantage of the pension changes among China’s social welfare reforms, decipher a two-way story of statecraft in authoritarian regimes and explore whether there may be room for cognitional counter-conduct from the public. My work demonstrates that the Chinese state works through benefit allocation, propaganda, experimentation with policy and many other approaches, in order to shape public expectations and justify its rule. However, the state’s well-designed statecraft needs to enable individuals to make sense of their experience and must resonate with their “common sense”. Individuals can update their knowledge from personal interest, information from government policies, signals from current society (their peers) to decide whether to stay loyal or choose non-compliance. In a situation when active counter-conduct such as resistance is not possible, individuals may choose cognitional rebellion and falsify their public compliance

Evaluating Impacts of Shared E-scooters from the Lens of Sustainable Transportation

As the popularity of shared micromobility is increasing worldwide, city governments are struggling to regulate and manage these innovative travel technologies that have several benefits, including increasing accessibility, reducing emissions, and providing affordable travel options. This dissertation evaluates the impacts of shared micromobility from the perspective of sustainable transportation to provide recommendations to decision-makers, planners, and engineers for improving these emerging travel technologies. The dissertation focuses on four core aspects of shared micromobility as follows: 1) Safety: I evaluated police crash reports of motor vehicle involving e-scooter and bicycle crashes using the most recent PBCAT crash typology to provide a comprehensive picture of demographics of riders crashing and crash characteristics, as well as mechanism of crash and crash risk, 2) Economics: I estimated the demand elasticity of e-scooters deployed, segmented by weekday type, land use, category of service providers based on fleet size using negative binomial fixed effect regression model and K-means clustering, 3) Expanding micromobility to emerging economies: Using dynamic stated preference pivoting survey and panel data mixed logit model, I assessed the intentions to adopt shared micromobility in mid-sized cities of developing countries, where these innovative technology could be the first wave of decarbonizing transportation sector, and 4) Micromobility data application: I identified five usage-clusters of shared e-scooter trips using combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering to propose a novel framework for using micromobility data to inform data-driven decision on broader policy goals. Based on the key findings of the research, I provide five recommendations as follows: 1) decision-makers should be proactive in incorporating new travel technologies like shared micromobility, 2) city governments should leverage shared micromobility usage and operation data to empower the decision-making process, 3) each shared micromobility vehicles should be approached uniquely for improving road safety, 4) city governments should consider regulating the number of service providers and their fleet sizes, and 5) decision-makers should prioritize expanding shared micromobility in emerging economies as one of the first efforts to the decarbonizing transportation sector

London: a Cultural Audit

This report is a pre-final version of a report published by the Greater London Authority and the London Development Agency in March 2008.   It benchmarks London’s cultural offer against four other world cities: Paris,  New York, Tokyo and Shanghai and is the first comprehensive such undertaking compiled according to international standards.   The final printed version can be downloaded from http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/culture/docs/cultural-audit.pdf   The printed version includes full acknowledgement to the several contributors to research into this project, without whom it would not have been possibl

'Sustainability' of what, for whom? Unfolding China's sustainability transitions and green modernisation

Today, we face two widespread crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. Tackling these twin threats requires extensive cooperation and system change. The crisis is also a catalyst for reforms toward more 'sustainable' futures. However, most discussion of transiting to a more sustainable future is theoretical or niche-based. Moreover, the consensus has not been reached on many fundamental transition questions such as what is the future after transition, how we transit, and is the proposed transition desirable for everyone. Many studies also end up by underscoring the need for collective actions to tackle complex, dynamic and diverse socio-ecological challenges in sustainability transition. To fill the gaps outlined above, this research aims to focus on China, the pioneer of practising sustainability transition and uncover the structural changes during sustainability transitions. This research asked 'What sustainability is China building? And whom do China's sustainability transitions benefit?' To answer these questions, this thesis by compilation followed the grounded theory to examine China's sustainability from international-national scale, regional scale to local scale. At the international-national scale, this research assesses the integration and interplay of sustainability transitions in China's national development strategies and discusses how do sustainability transitions support China's global ambitions. On an international platform, China's eco-development and eco-civilisation logics help China take more and increasingly prominent roles in UN sustainability councils and other global environmental and developmental organisations. At the national level, China values natural resources based on its nation-state and party's interests. By over-emphasising a shared bright future or great mission, the task of solving individual problems and concerns of specific groups is overlooked. At a regional scale, this research examines China's adjustments and changes in policy in coordinating regional development and transitions. In China, radical policy reform triggered by external perturbations and shocks is competing with incremental policy change through policy-oriented learning. An "double-mountain" theory has been proposed by Xi Jinping since 2005 and has become the dominant strategy instructing China's sustainable development plans. Empirical research was undertaken at the local scale discovering the outcomes and effects of sustainability transitions on local people. China's logic of sustainability transitions has unified complicated relations and interactions among different groups in a society under a single set of all-encompassing terms and principles. By overlooking social differentiation, the Chinese Communist Party can avoid solving tricky problems. In China, sustainability transitions are integral to nation-state stability and party legitimacy rather than a sustainable development of a broad community as envisioned by many other sustainability agendas, such as the sustainable development goals. China's case reminds us that the broader the concepts of sustainability transitions are, the more space powerful stakeholders have to manipulate development to favour their demands. However, there do not have to be negative consequences from sustainable development transitions. Politicisation and pluralisation of sustainability transitions could diminish perverse outcomes and unlock positive social outcomes. The key to sustainable development is not co-developing humans and nature because this has happened for millions of years. To live more sustainably, we need to first figure out how humans can live longer, better and happier without depriving everyone's inalienable rights to own life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Sustainability transitions should be human-centred and the management of competing values among actors in transitions should be decided through a just and transparent approach

London: a Cultural Audit

This report is a pre-final version of a report published by the Greater London Authority and the London Development Agency in March 2008. It benchmarks London’s cultural offer against four other world cities: Paris,  New York, Tokyo and Shanghai and is the first comprehensive such undertaking compiled according to international standards. The final printed version can be downloaded from http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/culture/docs/cultural-audit.pdf The printed version includes full acknowledgement to the several contributors to research into this project, without whom it would not have been possiblecultural economics; creative industries; London; World Cities