24,875 research outputs found
Uncertainty Quantification Using Neural Networks for Molecular Property Prediction
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular
property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model
predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision
wastes valuable time and resources. The need for UQ is especially acute for
neural models, which are becoming increasingly standard yet are challenging to
interpret. While several approaches to UQ have been proposed in the literature,
there is no clear consensus on the comparative performance of these models. In
this paper, we study this question in the context of regression tasks. We
systematically evaluate several methods on five benchmark datasets using
multiple complementary performance metrics. Our experiments show that none of
the methods we tested is unequivocally superior to all others, and none
produces a particularly reliable ranking of errors across multiple datasets.
While we believe these results show that existing UQ methods are not sufficient
for all common use-cases and demonstrate the benefits of further research, we
conclude with a practical recommendation as to which existing techniques seem
to perform well relative to others
Crowd Counting with Decomposed Uncertainty
Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved
remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the
estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point
estimation can lead to a more informed decision, and even improve the
prediction quality. In this work, we focus on uncertainty estimation in the
domain of crowd counting. With increasing occurrences of heavily crowded events
such as political rallies, protests, concerts, etc., automated crowd analysis
is becoming an increasingly crucial task. The stakes can be very high in many
of these real-world applications. We propose a scalable neural network
framework with quantification of decomposed uncertainty using a bootstrap
ensemble. We demonstrate that the proposed uncertainty quantification method
provides additional insight to the crowd counting problem and is simple to
implement. We also show that our proposed method exhibits the state of the art
performances in many benchmark crowd counting datasets.Comment: Accepted in AAAI 2020 (Main Technical Track
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