ACORA: Distribution-Based Aggregation for Relational Learning from Identifier Attributes

Feature construction through aggregation plays an essential role in modeling relational domains with one-to-many relationships between tables. One-to-many relationships lead to bags (multisets) of related entities, from which predictive information must be captured. This paper focuses on aggregation from categorical attributes that can take many values (e.g., object identifiers). We present a novel aggregation method as part of a relational learning system ACORA, that combines the use of vector distance and meta-data about the class-conditional distributions of attribute values. We provide a theoretical foundation for this approach deriving a "relational fixed-effect" model within a Bayesian framework, and discuss the implications of identifier aggregation on the expressive power of the induced model. One advantage of using identifier attributes is the circumvention of limitations caused either by missing/unobserved object properties or by independence assumptions. Finally, we show empirically that the novel aggregators can generalize in the presence of identi- fier (and other high-dimensional) attributes, and also explore the limitations of the applicability of the methods.Information Systems Working Papers Serie

Latent demographic profile estimation in hard-to-reach groups

The sampling frame in most social science surveys excludes members of certain groups, known as hard-to-reach groups. These groups, or subpopulations, may be difficult to access (the homeless, e.g.), camouflaged by stigma (individuals with HIV/AIDS), or both (commercial sex workers). Even basic demographic information about these groups is typically unknown, especially in many developing nations. We present statistical models which leverage social network structure to estimate demographic characteristics of these subpopulations using Aggregated relational data (ARD), or questions of the form "How many X's do you know?" Unlike other network-based techniques for reaching these groups, ARD require no special sampling strategy and are easily incorporated into standard surveys. ARD also do not require respondents to reveal their own group membership. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the demographic characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, or latent demographic profiles, using ARD. We propose two estimation techniques. First, we propose a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for existing data or cases where the full posterior distribution is of interest. For cases when new data can be collected, we propose guidelines and, based on these guidelines, propose a simple estimate motivated by a missing data approach. Using data from McCarty et al. [Human Organization 60 (2001) 28-39], we estimate the age and gender profiles of six hard-to-reach groups, such as individuals who have HIV, women who were raped, and homeless persons. We also evaluate our simple estimates using simulation studies.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS569 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Distribution-based aggregation for relational learning with identifier attributes

Identifier attributes—very high-dimensional categorical attributes such as particular product ids or people’s names—rarely are incorporated in statistical modeling. However, they can play an important role in relational modeling: it may be informative to have communicated with a particular set of people or to have purchased a particular set of products. A key limitation of existing relational modeling techniques is how they aggregate bags (multisets) of values from related entities. The aggregations used by existing methods are simple summaries of the distributions of features of related entities: e.g., MEAN, MODE, SUM, or COUNT. This paper’s main contribution is the introduction of aggregation operators that capture more information about the value distributions, by storing meta-data about value distributions and referencing this meta-data when aggregating—for example by computing class-conditional distributional distances. Such aggregations are particularly important for aggregating values from high-dimensional categorical attributes, for which the simple aggregates provide little information. In the first half of the paper we provide general guidelines for designing aggregation operators, introduce the new aggregators in the context of the relational learning system ACORA (Automated Construction of Relational Attributes), and provide theoretical justification.We also conjecture special properties of identifier attributes, e.g., they proxy for unobserved attributes and for information deeper in the relationship network. In the second half of the paper we provide extensive empirical evidence that the distribution-based aggregators indeed do facilitate modeling with high-dimensional categorical attributes, and in support of the aforementioned conjectures.NYU, Stern School of Business, IOMS Department, Center for Digital Economy Researc

Hierarchical Models for Relational Event Sequences

Interaction within small groups can often be represented as a sequence of events, where each event involves a sender and a recipient. Recent methods for modeling network data in continuous time model the rate at which individuals interact conditioned on the previous history of events as well as actor covariates. We present a hierarchical extension for modeling multiple such sequences, facilitating inferences about event-level dynamics and their variation across sequences. The hierarchical approach allows one to share information across sequences in a principled manner---we illustrate the efficacy of such sharing through a set of prediction experiments. After discussing methods for adequacy checking and model selection for this class of models, the method is illustrated with an analysis of high school classroom dynamics

On the estimation of a fixed effects model with selective non-response

Economics;Statistical Methods;econometrics