Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

"Can Banks Learn to Be Rational?"

Can banks learn to be rational in their lending activities? The answer depends on the institutionally bounded constraints to learning. From an evolutionary perspective the functionality (for survival) of "learning to be rational" creates strong incentives for such learning without, however, guaranteeing that each member of the particular economic species actually achieves increased fitness. I investigate this issue for a particular economic species, namely, commrercial banks. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the key issues related to learning in an economic model by proposing a new screening model for bank commercial loans that uses the neuro fuzzy technique. The technical modeling aspect is integrally connected in a rigorous way to the key conceptual and theoretical aspects of the capabilities for learning to be rational in a broad but precise sense. This paper also compares the relative predictability of loan default among three methods of prediction--- discriminant analysis, logit type regression, and neuro fuzzy--- based on the real data obtained from one of the banks in Taiwan.The neuro fuzzy model, in contrast with the other two, incorporates recursive learning in a real world, imprecise linguistic environment. The empirical results show that in addition to its better screening ability, the neuro fuzzy model is superior in explaining the relationship among the variables as well. With further modifications,this model could be used by bank regulatory agencies for loan examination and by bank loan officers for loan review. The main theoretical conclusion to draw from this demonstration is that non-linear learning in a vague semantic world is both possible and useful. Therefore the search for alternatives to the full neoclassical rationality and its equivalent under uncertainty---rational expectations--- is a plausible and desirable search, especially when the probability for convergence to a rational expectations equilibrium is low.

Development of c-means Clustering Based Adaptive Fuzzy Controller for A Flapping Wing Micro Air Vehicle

Advanced and accurate modelling of a Flapping Wing Micro Air Vehicle (FW MAV) and its control is one of the recent research topics related to the field of autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In this work, a four wing Natureinspired (NI) FW MAV is modeled and controlled inspiring by its advanced features like quick flight, vertical take-off and landing, hovering, and fast turn, and enhanced manoeuvrability when contrasted with comparable-sized fixed and rotary wing UAVs. The Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm is utilized to demonstrate the NIFW MAV model, which has points of interest over first principle based modelling since it does not depend on the system dynamics, rather based on data and can incorporate various uncertainties like sensor error. The same clustering strategy is used to develop an adaptive fuzzy controller. The controller is then utilized to control the altitude of the NIFW MAV, that can adapt with environmental disturbances by tuning the antecedent and consequent parameters of the fuzzy system.Comment: this paper is currently under review in Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Researc

Adaptive Non-singleton Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems: A Way Forward for Handling Numerical Uncertainties in Real World Applications

Real world environments are characterized by high levels of linguistic and numerical uncertainties. A Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) is recognized as an adequate methodology to handle the uncertainties and imprecision available in real world environments and applications. Since the invention of fuzzy logic, it has been applied with great success to numerous real world applications such as washing machines, food processors, battery chargers, electrical vehicles, and several other domestic and industrial appliances. The first generation of FLSs were type-1 FLSs in which type-1 fuzzy sets were employed. Later, it was found that using type-2 FLSs can enable the handling of higher levels of uncertainties. Recent works have shown that interval type-2 FLSs can outperform type-1 FLSs in the applications which encompass high uncertainty levels. However, the majority of interval type-2 FLSs handle the linguistic and input numerical uncertainties using singleton interval type-2 FLSs that mix the numerical and linguistic uncertainties to be handled only by the linguistic labels type-2 fuzzy sets. This ignores the fact that if input numerical uncertainties were present, they should affect the incoming inputs to the FLS. Even in the papers that employed non-singleton type-2 FLSs, the input signals were assumed to have a predefined shape (mostly Gaussian or triangular) which might not reflect the real uncertainty distribution which can vary with the associated measurement. In this paper, we will present a new approach which is based on an adaptive non-singleton interval type-2 FLS where the numerical uncertainties will be modeled and handled by non-singleton type-2 fuzzy inputs and the linguistic uncertainties will be handled by interval type-2 fuzzy sets to represent the antecedents’ linguistic labels. The non-singleton type-2 fuzzy inputs are dynamic and they are automatically generated from data and they do not assume a specific shape about the distribution associated with the given sensor. We will present several real world experiments using a real world robot which will show how the proposed type-2 non-singleton type-2 FLS will produce a superior performance to its singleton type-1 and type-2 counterparts when encountering high levels of uncertainties.</jats:p