1,203 research outputs found
Error in Enumerable Sequence Prediction
We outline a method for quantifying the error of a sequence prediction. With sequence predictions represented by semimeasures we define their error to be . We note that enumerable semimeasures are those which model the sequence as the output of a computable system given unknown input. Using this we define the simulation complexity of a computable system relative to another giving an emph{exact} bound on their difference in error. This error in turn gives an exact upper bound on the number of predictions gets incorrect
Algorithmic Complexity Bounds on Future Prediction Errors
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence
online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal
predictor from the true distribution by the algorithmic complexity of
. Here we assume we are at a time and already observed .
We bound the future prediction performance on by a new
variant of algorithmic complexity of given , plus the complexity of the
randomness deficiency of . The new complexity is monotone in its condition
in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is
prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model
classes and to classification problems.Comment: 21 page
Optimality of Universal Bayesian Sequence Prediction for General Loss and Alphabet
Various optimality properties of universal sequence predictors based on
Bayes-mixtures in general, and Solomonoff's prediction scheme in particular,
will be studied. The probability of observing at time , given past
observations can be computed with the chain rule if the true
generating distribution of the sequences is known. If
is unknown, but known to belong to a countable or continuous class \M
one can base ones prediction on the Bayes-mixture defined as a
-weighted sum or integral of distributions \nu\in\M. The cumulative
expected loss of the Bayes-optimal universal prediction scheme based on
is shown to be close to the loss of the Bayes-optimal, but infeasible
prediction scheme based on . We show that the bounds are tight and that no
other predictor can lead to significantly smaller bounds. Furthermore, for
various performance measures, we show Pareto-optimality of and give an
Occam's razor argument that the choice for the weights
is optimal, where is the length of the shortest program describing
. The results are applied to games of chance, defined as a sequence of
bets, observations, and rewards. The prediction schemes (and bounds) are
compared to the popular predictors based on expert advice. Extensions to
infinite alphabets, partial, delayed and probabilistic prediction,
classification, and more active systems are briefly discussed.Comment: 34 page
Sequential Predictions based on Algorithmic Complexity
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov
complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is
extremely close to Solomonoff's universal prior M, the latter being an
excellent predictor in deterministic as well as probabilistic environments,
where performance is measured in terms of convergence of posteriors or losses.
Despite this closeness to M, it is difficult to assess the prediction quality
of m, since little is known about the closeness of their posteriors, which are
the important quantities for prediction. We show that for deterministic
computable environments, the "posterior" and losses of m converge, but rapid
convergence could only be shown on-sequence; the off-sequence convergence can
be slow. In probabilistic environments, neither the posterior nor the losses
converge, in general.Comment: 26 pages, LaTe
On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation
The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for
inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation,
parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But
standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not
always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff
completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and
universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how
and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various
(philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show
that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and
weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior
densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal
hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the
old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in
non-computable environments.Comment: 24 page
Minimum Description Length Induction, Bayesianism, and Kolmogorov Complexity
The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description
length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling
principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from
Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition under which
the ideal principle should be applied is encapsulated as the Fundamental
Inequality, which in broad terms states that the principle is valid when the
data are random, relative to every contemplated hypothesis and also these
hypotheses are random relative to the (universal) prior. Basically, the ideal
principle states that the prior probability associated with the hypothesis
should be given by the algorithmic universal probability, and the sum of the
log universal probability of the model plus the log of the probability of the
data given the model should be minimized. If we restrict the model class to the
finite sets then application of the ideal principle turns into Kolmogorov's
minimal sufficient statistic. In general we show that data compression is
almost always the best strategy, both in hypothesis identification and
prediction.Comment: 35 pages, Latex. Submitted IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor
Towards a Universal Theory of Artificial Intelligence based on Algorithmic Probability and Sequential Decision Theory
Decision theory formally solves the problem of rational agents in uncertain
worlds if the true environmental probability distribution is known.
Solomonoff's theory of universal induction formally solves the problem of
sequence prediction for unknown distribution. We unify both theories and give
strong arguments that the resulting universal AIXI model behaves optimal in any
computable environment. The major drawback of the AIXI model is that it is
uncomputable. To overcome this problem, we construct a modified algorithm
AIXI^tl, which is still superior to any other time t and space l bounded agent.
The computation time of AIXI^tl is of the order t x 2^l.Comment: 8 two-column pages, latex2e, 1 figure, submitted to ijca
On Generalized Computable Universal Priors and their Convergence
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple
explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference,
which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result
is that the posterior of the universal semimeasure M converges rapidly to the
true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is
eligible as a universal predictor in case of unknown mu. The first part of the
paper investigates the existence and convergence of computable universal
(semi)measures for a hierarchy of computability classes: recursive, estimable,
enumerable, and approximable. For instance, M is known to be enumerable, but
not estimable, and to dominate all enumerable semimeasures. We present proofs
for discrete and continuous semimeasures. The second part investigates more
closely the types of convergence, possibly implied by universality: in
difference and in ratio, with probability 1, in mean sum, and for Martin-Loef
random sequences. We introduce a generalized concept of randomness for
individual sequences and use it to exhibit difficulties regarding these issues.
In particular, we show that convergence fails (holds) on generalized-random
sequences in gappy (dense) Bernoulli classes.Comment: 22 page
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